Thursday, October 30, 2003

Paulitics will be back

Up-to-date political news will return Monday.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:52 PM |

Democrats get nasty in Iowa

The Des Moines Register reports that with the battle for Iowa becoming a two man race between national Democratic front-runner Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt from neighbouring Missouri, issues are taking a back seat to allegations of unpleasant behaviour and campaign tricks. The Dean campaign says a Gephardt staffer called one of their workers a faggot. The Gephardt campaign says Dean is playing a "dirty trick." This political equivalent of he said, she said is unlikely to endear either candidate to the voters.¸

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:33 AM |

Florida Senate 2004

Senator Bob Graham (D, FL) is still playing a game of will he stay or will he go. The Miami Herald has an Associated Press story saying he has yet to make up his mind. Such life-altering decisions are not made overnight, Graham says. He's still working out the "logisitcs" but indications are that he might announce his intentions this weekend. Or he might announce when he might later announce his intentions.?

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:30 AM |

Bush still leads in polls

Despite all the bad news for President Bush -- an allegedly bad economy, alleged failures in Iraq -- the latest Quinnipiac University poll shows his favourability rating still at 51% and the president leading all the Democratic contenders by at least 4%. He beats General Wesley Clark 47%-43%, Senator Joseph Lieberman 48%-43%, Senator John Kerry and Rep. Dick Gephardt 49%-43%, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean 48%-42% and Senator Hillary Clinton 50%-42%. His lead over the potential Democratic rivals has shrunk slightly since QU's September 17 poll. The poll of 1,262 registered voters was conducted October 23 - 27.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:18 AM |

Wednesday, October 29, 2003

Wisconsin key 2004 battleground

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Republicans consider the Badger State a key battleground on the Congressional, Senate and presidential levels. National Republican Chairman Ed Gillespie said the GOP will will target two Democrats -- Senator Russ Feingold and Rep. Ron Kind -- in their attempt to increase their legislative majorities in Washington. A poll earlier this week showed that Feingold is running just behind former governor Tommy Thompson in a hypoethetical matchup.
The state is also be fought vigourously on the presidential level. In 2000, George Bush lost to Al Gore by just 6,000 votes. No Republican has won the state since President Reagan in 1984.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:32 AM |

Edwards hopes to survive the cut

The Washington Post's Terry M. Neal has a column on Senator John Edwards' (NC) stalled, almost-in-reverse campaign to become the Democratic presidential candidate. Neal says that while Edwards languishes in the national polls behind Al Sharpton and former Senator Carol Mosely Braun, he is leading in South Carolina. At this point, national polls don't matter as much as the state polls. So Edwards hopes that even if he finishes poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire -- which he told ABC's This Week last weekend he won't do -- the victory as the favourite son in South Carolina will re-ignite his campaign. That's why he's actively campaigning in Florida, where a primary will not be held until more than a month after the mini-Super Tuesday of February 3. Most political pundits think someone -- probably Dean -- will have the nomination sewn up before Florida primary.
M aybe. If Dean picks up some large wins, including Iowa (edging out Rep. Dick Gephardt) and New Hampshire (with a 20 point lead over Kerry), he will sew up the nomination rather quickly whether or not he wins South Carolina (he'll do well elsewhere Februar y 3, including in Michigan). But if Gephardt holds onto Iowa, slowing the Dean momentum or General Wesley Clark emerges with several early impressive finishes, the race will likely drag into March after early primaries winnow the candidates down to 2 or 3. Edwards' plan is to be one of those two or three. If Dean cannot steam roll his opponents (and no one else is in a position to have numerous early strong showings), Democratic and independent voters will want to take a closer look at the candidates and their programs. As Neal says, right now Edwards, "even though he has a thorough, well thought out domestic policy platform, how many voters know the difference between Edwards's health care plan and former Vermont governor Howard Dean's health care plan? How many people know Edwards's job-creation plan from Sen. John Kerry's (Mass.) job-creation plan?" The voters cannot sift through nine different policy platforms with their minor differences. I doubt they will do it in February when the Democratic field is one-third the size. But voters will want to think that they are doing it and then the campaign will take on a new dimension.?

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:06 AM |

Tuesday, October 28, 2003

Mississippi Governor 2003

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports that despite a 62% favourability rating, Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) is in trouble. Recent polls show him trailing Republican challenger Haley Barbour 50%-45%. Joe Parker, a political science professor at the University of Southern Mississippi, said that Democratic governors in other southern states in similar circumstances to Musgrove's were turfed last year: "The incumbent governors in Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama all got it right between the eyes in 2002 ... All three were Democrats. All faced budget crunches. All faced job loss situations." Parker also noted that Musgrove and Georgia Governor R oy Barnes both supported a new flag for the state. However, Leslie B. McLemore, political science professor at Jackson State University, said that Musgrove will benefit from having African-Americans down the ticket for Lt. Governor and Treasurer which could ensure significant black voter turnout. Musgrove leads Barbour among black voters 83%-11%.ˇ

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:03 AM |

Big guns help in Mississippi gubernatorial race

The Associated Press reports that lots of GOP luminaries are stumping for Republican Haley Barbour in Mississippi in his quest to unseat Governor Ronnie Musgrove, including Vice President Dick Cheney, former Senator Bob Dole (KS), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Rep. J.C. Watts (OK), Senator Elizabeth Dole (NC), former White House press secretary Ari Fleisher and Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:57 AM |

Wisconsin Senate 2004

The Milwaukee Sentinel Journal reports that in a hypoethetical matchup polled by Harris Interactive, Senator Russ Feingold (D) trails federal Health and Human Service Secretary Tommy Thompson (R) by one point: 44%-45%. Thompson, the former governor, has not indicated he would run for Senate and most political observers doubt he would make the jump from the executive to the legislature. He has, however, indicated that he will be quitting cabinet next year. The hypothetical matching shows how Feingold would do against a big-name Republican. Considering that the paper calls Thompson "the state's most enduringly popular Republican politician," it is doubtful any other Republican would do quite as well. That and Feingold's 49% favourable/24% unfavourable ratings. The poll of 1,000 state residents was conducted October 6-12 and sponsored by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.
Thus far only three Republicans have announced that they will seek the party's senate nomination next year: car dealer Russ Darrow, construction company executive Tim Michels and state Senator Bob Welch of Redgranite. Welch said that Feingold's under 50% favourable rating is a sign of trouble: "Any time your 'favorable' is under 50 percent, you are like the walking dead."÷

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:41 AM |

Endorsement watch

The Associated Press reports (scroll past first story) that the California Teachers Association, the 335,000-member state affiliate of the National Education Association, endorsed Howard Dean in his quest to become the Democratic presidential candidate.
Dean also picked picked up a trade union endorsement -- the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades. The IUPAT has 140,000 members.
The AP also reports that Senator John Kerry will receive his 17th Congressional endorsement. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D, NY) will formally announce that she is backing Kerry later today.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:20 AM |

Monday, October 27, 2003

What Iowa means. Or doesn't

The Des Moines Register reports that General Wesley Clark and Senator Joseph Lieberman bailing from the Iowa caucus could diminish Iowa's influence in U.S. politics. Iowans, of course, think this is a bad thing. Opinions differ. Donna Brazile, campaign manager of Al Gore's failed 2000 presidential bid, says it matters who wins: if the winning strategy is someone who skipped the Buckeye State, she says, Iowa may not keep its first in the nation status. Larry Bartels, a political science professor from Princeton, says it is not so much the final result as the media coverage: if the focus is not on the caucus challengers but what General Clark is doing elsewhere, then Iowa is not as important in the presidential selection process. Really, it is not Lieberman or Clark that is changing the political significance of the state, but the Democratic party which allowed seven states to move up their primaries and caucuses two weeks after the Iowa caucus.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:45 PM |

Kentucky Governor 2003

Republican Rep. Ernie Fletcher leads Democrat state Attorney General Ben Chandler according to two recent polls. The Associated Press reports that an AP-sponsored Ipsos-Public Affairs poll found Fletcher leading 52%-43%. That poll of 600 likely voters was conducted October 21-23 found that 37 percent of those who said they voted for scandal-plagued Democratic Governor Paul Patton in 1999 will vote for Fletcher on November 4. The same AP story reports that a Bluegrass Poll also conducted October 21-23 for the Louisville Courier-Journal found Fletcher leading 48%-39%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:43 AM |

Mississippi Governor 2003

The Associated Press reports that according to an Ipsos Poll conducted for the AP finds Republican Haley Barbour leading Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove 50%-45%. The poll, of 623 likely voters conducted October 21 23, also found that one in four respondents who said they supported Musgrove in 1999 are voting for Barbour, a former Republican National Committee Chairman, on November 4.
Also, in the race for lieutenant governor Republican Amy Tuck is leading Democrat Barbara Blackman 54%-40%. In the race for state treasurer, Republican Tate Reeves leads Gary Anderson 44%-43%.[

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:39 AM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that the gubernatorial election there will depend on turnout and maintaini ng the racial base of each campaign. Democrat Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco leads Republican Bobby Jindal 42.7%-40.5% according to the Southern Media Poll, whose results reflect polling data that is "corrected" to reflect the 70% white, 30% black electora l make-up typical of Louisiana elections. If that breakdown continues and 90% of blacks support Blanco (she has 75% compared to Jindal's 11%), she wins. Jindal, who is polling in the high 50s among white voters, is thought to need white support in the mid-60s to win. However, the paper also noted that in recent years, voter turnout has been trending more white, so Jindal may be able to do with less.‡

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:17 AM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

Despite what initially looked to be hotly contested primaries to succeed retiring Senator Don Nickles (R), KOTV is reporting that the likely candidates are Democrat Rep. Brad Carson and Republican Oklahoma City mayor Kirk Humphreys. Thus far, the only primary competition either of them has is Democrat Jim Rogers, a political unknown. In three weeks, several high-profile candidates have opted not to run: Rep. Ernest Istook (R) and state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) most notable among them. Three other names often mentioned as candidates who took themselves out of the running include Democrat state Treasurer Robert Butkin and Republicans state Senator Jim Dunlap and Lt. Governor Mary Fallin.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:08 AM |

Dean maintains strong lead in NH

The Boston Globe reports that Howard Dean leads Senator John Kerry 37%-24% in New Hampshire. Both are from neighbouring states and if Kerry loses or finishes too far behind Dean, his campaign in thought to be over. According to the Boston Globe/WBZ poll conducted by KRC Communications Research, no other candidate got more than single-digit support. Also, the poll found that Dean was thought to be the Democrat most capable of beating President George W. Bush in the general election (with 35% saying so).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:01 AM |

Friday, October 24, 2003

Weekend announcement

Paulitics is back and there are some half-dozen posts today. There will be a slight hiatus for the weekend, but Paulitics returns on Monday.P

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:09 PM |

Will the real Democrat please stand up

Actually, each of the eight candidates running for the Democratic presidential nomination is a Democrat and all have the liberal credentials to prove it. Still, the Los Angeles Times reports that the candidates will try to out-liberal each other in the next major candidates' debate in Detroit, and indeed throughout the primaries. All of this is the culmination of the attacks on Howard Dean over the fact that he supported Republican federal reforms in the 1990s, General Wesley Clark's registration as a Democrat after he became a candidate for the party's nomination and the incredible influence liberal activists (labour unions, feminists, teachers, "civil rights" groups, homosexuals, the organized anti-globalization/anti-war crowd) within the party. Earl Black, a political analyst at Rice University in Houston, told the Times: "It's almost a 1980s approach for the Democrats to assume that if you can find a way to unify your ideological core, then that will eventually get you in a position to be competitive in the nation. But it didn't work in the 1980s for [Democratic presidential nominees] Walter Mondale or Michael Dukakis, and it sort of misses the point of thinking beyond the primaries to how you probably want to be positioned for the fall election."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:40 AM |

NY polling numbers

Newsday reports that a Maris College poll shows that New York Democrats have bumped Senator Joseph Lieberman down a notch as their favoured candidate. Lieberman formally led in such state polls but now trails Howard Dean 18%-16%. In September, Lieberman led Dean 23%-10%. The recent poll of 417 registered Democrats also found that General Wesley Clark has the backing of 14%, followed by Rep. Richard Gephardt had 10% and Senator John Kerry 8% (down from 20% last December). 23% of respondents were undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:37 AM |

Edwards strategy failing

The Boston Globe reported yesterday that Senator John Edwards (NC) has spent great sums of money on early television advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire but to little effect. Now mired in single-digit support in both states, he has spent more money in these two states than any of the other candidates thus leaving him with less resources in the critical final months before the first primary and caucus respectively. Edwards denies reports that he may not accept federal matching funds so that he can exceed the state-by-state caps placed on such candidates..

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:28 AM |

Major Louisiana gubernatorial endorsements

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Bobby Jindal, the conservative Republican gubernatorial candidate, received the endorsement of BOLD, a "New Orleans African-American political organization that has historically backed Democrats." The Jindal campaign worked to get the endorsement while his Democratic opponent Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco has not contacted the group since the October 4 primary election. The paper called the endorsement "a political shocker" and reported that BOLD member Jay Banks joked that ""We're going to get some (bumper stickers) that say 'Brothers for Bobby'."
The paper also reports that the two largest teachers' unions in the state, the Louisiana Federation of Teachers and the Louisiana Association of Educators, both endorsed Blanco.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:20 AM |

Racers endorse Kentucky Republicans

The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Kentucky Speedway endorsed Republicans Ernie Fletcher and Steve Pence, the party's governor and lieutenant governor ticket. Fletcher has promised lots of goodies to the Speedway including extending tax credits and including their events in the state's tourism promotions. Announcing the endorsement was Speedway president Jerry Carroll and former professional driver and consultant to Speedway Darrell Waltrip. Waltrip is a Republican but Carroll has donated to both parties.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:56 AM |

NRA endorses Democrat

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports that the National Rifle Association endorsed Mississippi's Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove even though both he and Republican challenger Haley Barbour received a "superior rating" from the gun rights group. A local chapter of the NRA said in such cases the endorsement usually goes to the incumbent.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:09 AM |

Dean leads in NH

The Associated Press reported Wednesday that Howard Dean leads in New Hampshire according to a Research 2000 poll conducted for the Concord Monitor. Dean is backed by 31% of likely Democratic voters, followed by John Kerry (19%), and General Wesley Clark (12%). The rest of the pack all in are in single digits with Al Sharpton and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun failing to register even 1%. Nearly one in four respondents (23%) to the Oct. 16-20 poll were undecided. The poll also shows that President Bush has a lead in the state over any of the Democratic candidates.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:02 AM |

Thursday, October 23, 2003

Paulitics will return

I'm having computer problems. I hope to have Paulitics back on Friday October 24, but no later than Monday October 27.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:11 PM |

Tuesday, October 21, 2003

South Carolina Senate 2004

The (Columbia) State reports that Columbia mayor Bob Coble has dropped out of the race to become the Democratic Senate nominee next year. This leaves state Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum as the Democratic Party’s likely nominee, whom Coble said he will support. Last week, financial reports showed Coble had raised less than one-third of what Tenenbaum raised. Political unknown Marcus Belk is also seeking the party's nomination.
Four Republicans are seeking their party's Senate nomination: former state Attorney General Charlie Condon, Rep. Jim DeMint, Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:51 AM |

Contra the CW, Gephardt better positioned in Iowa

David Yepsen, the political columnist for the Des Moines Register says two recent polls show that H oward Dean may have already peaked in Iowa and that Rep. Dick Gephardt is in good shape to win the January caucus. It is thought that winning in Iowa is a prerequisite to continuing the campaign for Gephardt.
One poll -- by a group of Democratic consulta nts called the "Democracy Corps" -- finds that Gephardt has 27% compared to Dean's 26%. Behind are Senators John Kerry (16%) and John Edwards (8%) followed by General Wesley Clark (6%) and Senator Joseph Liebemrman, former Senator Carol Mosley Braun and Rep. Dennis Kucinich tied with 2% each. This poll of "caucus-goers" was conducted Oct. 2-13 -- before Lieberman and Clark dropped out. (We now see why -- a combined 8%.)
Another poll conducted Oct. 14-16 for WHO-TV in Des Moines found that Gephardt leads Dean 27%-22%. Kerry had 15%, Edwards and Clark were tied at 11% and Lieberman had 4%.
Yepsen says the closeness of the race is not as important as the fact that "Dean's campaign appears to have plateaued." The California recall and General Clark's entry i nto the Democrat fray both removed Dean from the spotlight -- a place he is not easily going to regain. That, and the issues (the economy not the war is now the Big Issue) and the geographical advantage (Gephardt is from neighbouring Missouri) all lead to one likely conclusion: Gephardt will win Iowa.
For an example of the opposite view, the conventional wisdom view that Gephardt is in some trouble, read the New York Times article "In a state once his own, Gephardt labors hard."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:34 AM |

Monday, October 20, 2003

Kentucky Governor 2003

The Associated Press reports that Democratic Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Ernie Fletcher over his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Ben Chandler. Earlier this year, Lunsford dropped out of the Democratic gubernatorial primary and endorsed state House Speaker Jody Richards after spending $8 million on his failed campaign. Chandler beat Richards for the Democratic nomination.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:39 PM |

Dean's lead in NH falls

The Los Angeles Times reports that a WDHD TV-sponsored Suffolk University poll finds former Vermont governor Howard Dean leading Senator John Kery 25-19% in New Hampshire. Kerry has cut the difference in half in one month and the same poll also found that Kerry's favourable rating (66%) was higher than Dean's (60%).
Rounding out the contenders: General Wesley Clark had 11%, followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman (8%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (7%) and Senator John Edwards (4%). Former Senator Carol Moseley Braun and Rep. Dennis Kucinich were tied with 1% and Al Sharpton had 0%. Nearly one in four New Hampshire Democrats and independents likely to vote in the January primary remain undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:34 PM |

Hillary steals spotlight

The New York Post reports that the candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination are not pleased that Senator Hillary Clinton is getting all the attention for a Democratic dinner in Iowa next month.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:06 PM |

Top Democrats bypass Iowa II

The Des Moines Register reports the reaction to the news that General Wesley Clark and Senator Joseph Lieberman will not contest the Iowa caucus next January. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack said Lieberman's decision made sense; Clark's did not. Interestingly, Lieberman was the only candidate to secure the endorsement of an elected statewide office holder: state Attorney General Tom Miller.
Lieberman is focusing on Arizona and New Mexico, primaries held two weeks after the Iowa caucus and one week after the New Hampshire primary. While some political reporters say that the Clark and Lieberman decisions could change the presidential primary, the fact that nine states hold caucuses and primaries in the first three weeks of the primary calendar has altered the nature of the campaign. Lieberman and Clark are the first to recognize this. In addition to Arizona and New Mexico, voters in Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, North Dakota and South Carolina hold a primary election or caucus on Feb. 3.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:04 PM |

California Senate 2004 II

The Los Angeles Times has an article on how the Republicans are hopeful about their chances at unseating Senator Barbara Boxer (D) in 2004. The point made again and again in the story is that only a moderate Republican can beat Boxer. Of course, that point is repeatedly made by moderate Republicans.]

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:34 AM |

California Senate 2004

The Washington Times reports that some Republicans are touting comedian Dennis Miller as a possible Senate candidate next yea r. It does not appear that a Miller candidacy should be taken very seriously. Radio talk-show host Hugh Hewitt says that Miller may have an "appealing" position on the war for Iraq but that many of his other views may not be appreciated by conservative Republicans. David Horowitz, director of the Center for the Study of Popular Culture in Los Angeles, said he doesn't know why Miller would want to: "It'd be a great loss to comedy ... I like Dennis Miller. I think he is very appealing, I just don't know why he would want to do it."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:23 AM |

Top Democrats bypass Iowa

The New York Times reports that General Wesley Clark and Senator Joseph Lieberman will not contest the Iowa caucus in January. The Times says that the move could profoundly change the Democratic nominating process by "plant[ing] an asterisk alongside the results of the caucuses on Jan. 19" and diminish the win of Rep. Dick Gephardt or Howard Dean.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:16 AM |

Iowa Senate 2004

According to the Des Moines Register, Senator Charles Grassley raised nearly a $1 million in the last quarter, bringing his re-election bank account to $5 million. The chairman of the Senate Finance committee does not yet have a Democratic challenger and is not expected to have a serious one.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:25 AM |

Georgia Senate 2004

The Macon Telegraph reports that Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, may not benefit greatly from her father's name. "To have any chance of winning, she's got to get beyond that. She has to be more than just the daughter of Sam Nunn," said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. "She has to define herself and have some issues." Nunn, 37, works with non-profit organizations and has never sought elected office. She would not even be considered a candidate if her last name wasn't Nunn.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:08 AM |

Little interest in Democratic campaign in S.C.

The Charlotte Observer reports that Democrats are not paying attention to the Democratic presidential nomination fight, despite the fact that this formerly heavily Democratic state holds the first primary after New Hampshire. The paper reports that most of the supporters who come to events are black.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:04 AM |

Sunday, October 19, 2003

Signs of a good 2004 for Bush, Republicans

Writing in the Los Angeles Times, Walter Russell Mead, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that foreign and economic news will have "the GOP, not Democrats, will be looking forward to November."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:47 PM |

Prominent Democrat voted for Arnold in recall

The Los Angeles Times reports that during a speech at Berkeley, state Attorney General Bill Lockyer (D) said that he voted against the recall but support Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in the second question. He supported Schwarzenegger because of the actor's message of "hope, change, reform [and] optimism."
Lockyer is considered one of two Democrats likely to get the party's gubernatorial nomination in 2006. The other is state Treasurer Phil Angelides, who has alreday become one of Schwarzenegger's most vocal critics. Both have already amassed $10 million for the 2006 campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:44 PM |

Money-olitics

The Chicago Sun-Times has a long article on the millionaires running to replace Illinois Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R) next year. The paper has what is becoming an annoying obsession with the self-financing candidates, but the article is worth reading. For instance, you'll learn that Democrat Blair Hull, who has indicated he would spend up to $40 million to get elected (primary and general election campaigns), is worth between $132 million and $445 million, "probably closer to the high end." The Sun-Times reports "he parlayed $25,000 in blackjack winnings into the Hull Trading Co., which he and his partners sold for $531 million in 1999. Hull owned 64 percent of the firm."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:32 PM |

Preston Smith, RIP

Former Texas Governor Preston Smith died yesterday at the age of 91. The Democrat led Texas for two terms from 1969-1973 when he was defeated seeking a third term. An attempted 1978 comeback ended a long career that saw him in and out of politics, when he finished third in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:56 AM |

Look out for third parties

Lawrence Jacobs, director of the 2004 Election Project at the Humphrey Institute and Land Grant McKnight Professor at the University of Minnesota, says that third parties or independent candidates -- most notably the Green or Libertarian parties -- could affect the 2004 presidential election. Writing in the Washington Post, Jacobs says that the Green, independent or Libertarian vote in a number of states (Arizona, New Hamphire, New Mexico) in 2002 senate or gubernatorial elections was larger than the margin of victory for Al Gore or George Bush in 2000. Jacobs also says that while Howard Dean is thought to make the Democrats more vulnerable next November, he might, in fact, attract those who voted for Ralph Nader in 2000.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:43 AM |

Jeb looks out for his brother

The Miami Herald reports that Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R) is urging Republican donors and activists to not commit to potential gubernatorial replacements until after 2004. One reason the paper cites is that Bush says in a highly competitive presidential race, he doesn't want the gubernatorial race that is still three years away funnelling money away from the presidential campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:36 AM |

Saturday, October 18, 2003

New York Congress 2004

Newsday reports that Long Island mayor James Garner may soon announce he will seek the Republican congressional nomination in the 4th Congressional District. If he gets it, Garner, president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, will challenge Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D). He is garnering widespread support among Republicans, including the Republican National Committee, with both proponents and critics saying his candidacy is part of the GOP's recruitment of minority candidates.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:56 AM |

Bloomberg's promotes non-partisan elections

The New York Post reports that New York City Michael Bloomberg (RINO) is going to use part of his personal fortune to promote non-partisan municipal elections, just weeks before a referendum on the issue goes to NYC voters on November 4.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:03 AM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The Shreveport Times reports that Pensacola, FL-based independent pollster Verne Kennedy has found that Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) leads Bobby Jindal (R), 48%-41%. The poll of of voters who cast ballots in the October 4 gubernatorial election, a fairly good indicator of who will vote in the November 15 run-off election. Among blacks, which make up one-quarter of the state's electorate, Blanco leads 77%-9%. Among whites, Jindal leads 53%-36%. Pearson Cross, a University of Louisiana-Monroe political scientist, said Jindal needs to 1) "find ways to depress the black turnout" and 2) "a wedge issue that will pry voters away from Blanco."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:00 AM |

Friday, October 17, 2003

Louisiana Senate 2004

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Senator John Breaux (D) has raised only about half the amount he raised at this time last election cycle (he currently has $1.6 million in the bank), leading some to believe he may not seek re-election. Breaux maintains he has not made a decision about running next year. Rep. David Vitter (R), a likely Republican challenger has raised almost as much ($1.5 million).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:36 PM |

Ohio Governor 2006

The AP reports that trash show host Jerry Springer, who earlier this year thought about running for the Senate next year, is now considering running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2006. He said education would be a central theme of his governorship.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:38 PM |

California Senate 2004

The latest Field Poll, conducted before the October 7 recall election, shows that slightly fewer respondents want Senator Barbara Boxer (D) re-elected although she continues to hold substantial leads over four possible challengers. According to the Sacramento Bee 45% of registered voters polled Sept. 25 through Oct. 1, are inclined to support her in 2004 compared to 41% who are not. In July, 48% were inclined to support her compared to 41% who were not.
In the head-to-head matchups, Boxer leads former California Secretary of State Bill Jones by 14 points, state Assemblyman Tony Strickland by 22, and 23 points each agaisnt former U.S.Treasurer Rosario Marin and Los Altos Hills Mayor Toni Casey. Jones was favoured by 24% of Republican respondents as the party's senatorial nominee and the rest scored in single digits.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:21 AM |

Gephardt said to be confident of South Carolina results

The State's political columnist Lee Bandy reports that Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) has said he is in "great shape" in South Carolina despite polls that show him tied for fourth in the state with Senator John Kerry (Ultra D, People's Republic of MA) and New York preacher and civil rights activist Al Sharpton. Bandy says Gephardt's hopes depend on the endorsement of Rep. Jim Clyburn (D), a former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus and someone always described as one of "the most influential black leader in the state." Gephardt is believed to be the front-runner for his endorsement. Gephardt also has the endorsement of Rep. John Spratt (D) and the South Carolina Conference of Black Mayors.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:36 AM |

Miller time

Opinion Journal's Political Diary reports that Senator Zell Miller (D, GA) will make few friends in his party with his assessment of some of his colleagues in his new book A National Party No More: The Conscience of a Conservative Democrat. The 50-year veteran of the Democratic Party says former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, is "Clever and glib, but deep this Vermont pond is not." He says that the Democratic Party has "damaged its chances of winning by amputating whole sections of the country that don't agree with elite liberals." He adds, "Today our national Democratic leaders look south and say, 'I see one third of a nation and it can go to hell.' " He said that his party is too beholden to special interests, resembling "streetwalkers in skimpy halters and hot pants plying their age-old trade for the fat wallets of 'K Street.' "

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:28 AM |

Missouri Congress 2004

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Rep. Karen McCarthy (D) will face two challengers in her bid to remain the Democratic nominee in the 5th Congressional District next year. Damian Thorman, a former congressional aide who now works with the Kauffman Foundation, has joined Jamie Metzl, a former congressional aide who is described as a homeland security expert, in challenging McCarthy. Metzl raised more than $125,000 in his first three weeks as an announced candidate.
McCarthy is a five-term congresswoman who admitted to a drinking problem earlier this year. The Associated Press reports (via the Sacramento Bee) that she is having troubles raising money, with just $8,228 in donations from July to September.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:14 AM |

Democratic fundraising

The Raleigh News & Observer reports that Senator John Edwards (NC) was sixth among the Democratic presidential hopefuls in fundraising in the last quarter. He was behind even General Wesley Clark who announced his candidacy with only two weeks remaining in the period ending September 30. Edwards led the pack in fundraising in the first quarter of 2003, but his campaign failed to take off, his poll numbers fell to single digits and his contributions dried up. (The story has a useful chart with quarterly and cash on hand totals.)

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:56 AM |

Georgia Senate 2004

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports that Rep. Johnny Isakson (Moderate R) has raised double the money of his Republican competitors for the party's senatorial nomination during the past quarter. Other GOP candidates include Rep. Mac Collins, former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain and businessman Al Bartell. The only Democrat who announced an intention to seek the party's nomination is state Rep. Mary Squires, who raised a mere $5,100 for the quarter. The seat is being vacated by Senator Zell Miller (D) and Democrats seem to be pinning their hopes on the as-yet-unannounced candidacy of former Senator Sam Nunn's daughter Michelle.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:34 AM |

Estrich says its not too late for Hillary in 2004

Susan Estrich writes in a column in the Indianapolis Star that Hillary Clinton could still mount a credible campaign for president for next year: "Almost overnight, Democrats made clear that they were willing to take a look at a new face in the race, that it wasn't too late provided you could put a team together and raise money overnight. And if Clark could do that, relying on Bill Clinton's old team, then surely Hillary could do it even faster and better. No one could raise as much money as fast as she could. No one could put together a staff as fast as she could." Estrich, however, is a professor of law and political science at the University of Southern California and was an advisor to the sinking ship S.S. Dukakis in 1988. Take her punditry for what it's worth.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:13 AM |

Thursday, October 16, 2003

South Dakota Governor 2006

Reuters reports that Pat O'Brien, host of the television entertainment show Access Hollywood and a graduate of the University of South Dakota, is considering running for governor of South Dakota as a Democrat. O'Brien supported McGovern in 1972 but little else is known about his politics. It is not yet known if Governor Mike Rounds (R) is running for re-election.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:17 PM |

California Senate 2004

AP reported yesterday that State Assemblyman Tom Strickland announced that he is a candidate for the Republican senatorial nomination. Strickland is a conservative and has the support of state Senator Tom McClintock. If Rep. David Dreier doesn't enter the race, he'll have conservative support locked up.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:30 PM |

Nevada Senate 2004

The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that Senator Harry Reid (D) has padded his campaign coffers with over $1 million collected in the past quarter (ending September 30), bringing his war chest total to $3.7 million. He said he hopes to raise $10 million for next year's race.
The only candidate to announce he is seeking the Republican nomination is Richard Ziser, a Las Vegas-based investor and political consultant. Other potential candidates include Nevada secretary of state Dean Heller and state Treasurer Brian Krolicki. Over the summer, Rep. Jim Gibbons announced he would not seek the nomination. Gibbons was considered the GOP's best chance at unseating Reid.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:03 PM |

Illinois Senate 2004

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that "In the hotly contested Illinois Senate primaries, Democrat Dan Hynes and Republican Andrew McKen na outraised their rivals in the third quarter." However, many of the other candidates are either late-starting or millionaires who are expected to finance their own primary runs. State comptroller Hynes has an edge ($2.1 million cash on hand) over fellow Democrats attorney Gery Chico ($1.2 million) and state Senator Barack Obama ($1.5 million), with each raising between $575,000 and $922,000 in the quarter. Businessman Blair Hull has used $6.6 million in his own campaign for the Democratic nomination and expects the race to cost $20 million. (That's the primary alone.) Other candidates can hardly even be detected on the fundraising map.
On the Republican side, former investment banker and teacher Jack Ryan, has invested $1.25 million of his own money had less than one-third of that on-hand. McKenna, a business executive, has more than $650,000 on hand, but attracts more contributions than the other Republican candidates. Dairy owner and mutual fund manager Jim Oberweis has almost $500,000 cash on hand and has contributed more than $530,000 of his own money to his campaign. State Senator Steven Rauschenberger just began serious fundraising and has raised only $130,000 thus far. Still, he is considered a more serious candidate than Sikh businessman Chirinjeev Kathuria who has put up nearly $700,000 of his own money but attracted donations of less than $10,000. There are also a handful of minor Republican candidates.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:02 PM |

Clinton fundraising record broken

The Des Moines Register reports that Howard Dean has raised more money than any Democratic presidential candidate in any quarter. In the past three months, Dean raised $14.8 million compared to the $10.3 million President Bill Clinton raised in 1995. Dean has more than $12 million cash on hand and political observers say his fundraising success indicates his viability as a general election candidate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:56 AM |

Missouri Governor 2004

The Kansas City Star repots that Governor Bob Holden (D) holds a funding advantage over Claire McCaskill, who is challenging him for his party's gubernatorial nomination. He has more than $2.3 million while McCaskill has almsot $1.2 million on han. McCaskill, however, is not yet a formal candidate although an announcement is expected soon. Whoever the Democratic candidate is will likely face Missouri secretary of state Matt Blunt, who has $1.2 million cash on hand but who raised more money than either Holden McCaskill in third quarter.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:40 AM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that state Rep. Hunt Downer (R) has endorsed Republican Bobby Jindal for governor. Downer, a former gubernatorial rival, had previously questioned Jindal's electability.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:36 AM |

Indiana Governor 2004

The Indianapolis Star reports that Joe Andrews, who is running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, has said he will d rop out of the race if Governor Joe Kernan (D) seeks re-election. State Sen. Vi Simpson, another candidate for the nomination, had previously pledged to drop out of the race if Kernan runs. The Democratic nominee is likely to face Republican Mitch Daniels, former head of President Bush's Office of Management and Budget. Most Republican gubernatorial aspirants dropped out of that race once Daniels formally became a candidate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:29 AM |

Missouri Senate 2004

The Kansas City Star reports that Senator Kit Bond (R) has $4 million cash on hand compared to his likely Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Nancy Farmer who has less than $400,000 on hand. The Star says that Farmer concedes she will not raise as much as Bond. The paper also says that despite closely contested and nationally significant Senate elections in 2000 and 2002, 2004 will likely not be seen as important with the focus on the governor's race. Democrats, however, believe they can win Missouri.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:25 AM |

Philadelphia mayor 2003

Opinion Journal's John Fund writes that Giuliani-style reformer Sam Katz (R) could be the next mayor of Philadelphia. In a rematch of the 1999 race that Katz lost lost by 1 percentage point, he faces Democratic Mayor John Street who has recently faced a federal corruption investigation.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:20 AM |

Wednesday, October 15, 2003

California polling

The Sacramento Bee reports that General Wesley Clark leads Democratic aspirants in California. The latest Field Poll found that Clark has the support of 17% of respondents, compared to 14% for Senator Joseph Lieberman and Howard Dean, the latter who had led the pack in September with 23%. Others with more than 5% support: Senator John Kerry with 9% and Rep. Dick Gephardt with 5%.
In terms of presidential matchups, Clark leads President Bush 45%-43%. Bush, however, leads the other Democrats: he beats Dean and Kerry 46%-42%, Gephardt 45%-43% and Lieberman 45%-41%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:49 PM |

Pennsylvania Senate 2004

According to the Quinnipiac University poll respondents give Senator Arlen Specter (RINO) a 54% approval rating, compared to 31% who disapprove and a 43% favourab ility rating (compared to 22% unfavourable). Specter leads Rep. Joseph Hoeffel (D) 50%-33%, down from 53%-29% in August. Although there is no mention of Specter's primary challenger Rep. Pat Toomey, 41% of respondents say that they would like someone oth er than Specter to be elected senator compared to 46% who would like to see him re-elected.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:55 AM |

Presidential polling in Pennsylvania

A Quinnipiac University poll has found that President Bush's approval rating has fallen in Pennsylvania from 60% in August to 51% (poll was conducted October 9-13). Bush trails General Wesley Clark 48%-43% but leads Senator Hillary Clinton 51%-43%. Bush also holds solid leads on the other prominent Democratic presidential candidates although the lead has shrunk against each one. He would beat Senator Joseph Lieberman 50%-44% (down from 54-38 in August), Senator John Kerry 50-43 (down from 55-37), Howard Dean 51-41 (57-34 in August) and Rep. Richard Gephardt 50-42 (from 56-36).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:41 AM |

Indiana Governor 2004

The Indianapolis Star reports that Bren Simon, Democrat Joe Andrew's running mate in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nom ination and wife of Indiana Pacers co-ownder Mel Simon, has gotten out of the race and said she would like to see Governor Joe Kernan reconsider his ruling out a run for the governorship in 2004. In recent weeks, Kernan has seemed to back off his announce ment last December not to run for governor. Also seeking the Democratic nomination is state Senator Vi Simpson.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:36 AM |

Recall exit poll analysis

David Hill of director of Texas-based Hill Research Consultants, analyses the exit polling data collected and reported from the California recall in The Hill. Hill says "The Edison poll ignored religion and marital status but asked about sexual orientation." This is because exit pollster "Edison/Mitofsky, the apparent successor to VNS, insists on promoting an agenda that reflects those social, political and research values."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:32 AM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

The Hill reports that Senator Don Nickles had encouraged OC Mayor Kirk Humphreys for the Republican senatorial nomination but Nickles also said that he stays out of the party's primaries.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:28 AM |

Florida Senate 2004

The game of wait and see if Senator Bob Graham (D) seeks re-election has netted its first victim. The Miami Herald reports that Rep. Allen Boyd has announced that he will seek re-election rather than wait for Graham's decision. The Herald reports "All of the remaining potential Democrats in the race -- Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor, U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Pembroke Pines and U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings of Miramar -- have said they would drop out if Graham seeks reelection."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:50 AM |

California Senate 2004 II

The Hill reported yesterday that a number of candidates are expected to announce they are seeking the Republican senatorial nomination to challenge Senator Barbara Boxer (Ultra D). Already this morning, Paulitics reported that Republicans would like to see Rep. David Dreier run. But those who are expected to announce within the month include former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin, state Assemblyman Tony Strickland and former Los Altos Hill mayor Toni Casey. Casey is a social liberal who said that Schwarzenegger's victory gives Republicans like her a chance to win the nomination. Strickland is supported by Tom McClintock, who placed third in last week's special gubernatorial recall election. Former California Secretary of State Bill Jones said he has not made a decision on whether or not to run. Rep. Mary Bono is also mentioned as a possible candidate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:40 AM |

Alaska Senate 2004

The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner reported yesterday that Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) has raised $1.5 million compared to her likely Democratic challenger, former Governor Tony Knowles' $475,000. While these are not staggering amounts of money compared to the costs of campaigns in California, Florida or New York (or even Wisconsin or South Dakota), it is on pace to become the state's most expensive Senate race. Because of that fact, the paper is reporting, the candidates are looking out-of-state for contributors.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:31 AM |

Wisconsin Senate 2004

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Senator Russ Feingold has (not surprisingly) raised more money that the candidates for the Repub lican senatorial nomination. Feingold has $2.3 million on hand, more than the three Republican candidates have combined. Running for the Republican nomination is car dealer Russ Darrow, businessman Tim Michels and state Senator Bob Welch. An Associated Pr ess story (via the Des Moines Register) reports that Darrow and Michels have largely funded their own campaigns.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:21 AM |

California Senate 2004

The Washington Times reports that Rep. David Dreier is being shortlisted as a favourite for the Republican senatorial nomination to take on Senator Barbara Boxer (Ultra D). Dreier, who co-chaired the gubernatorial campaign of Arnold Schwarzenegger, is described by conservative strategist Grover Norquist as a politician whose star was rising even before the recall. The Times reports "As Schwarzenegger co-chairman, Mr. Dreier was chief ambassador to conservative voters wary of Mr. Schwarzenegger's social liberalism and sometimes contradictory economic views. Mr. Dreier's lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 93 percent helped him convince many of these leery conservatives that Mr. Schwarzenegger was an acceptable if not ideal alternative to state Sen. Tom McClintock." Dreier is also heading Schwarzenegger's transition team; both roles will serve him well -- giving him visibility, connections and favours owed -- if he choses to run next year. Dreier has not indicated whether he is interested.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:42 AM |

Tuesday, October 14, 2003

Jeffords says Leavitt's nomination to get committee okay

Reuters reports that independent but Democratic-leaning Senator James Jeffords (VT) has said he and a number of Democrats will vote Utah Governor Mike Leavitt's (R) nomination to head the federal Environmental Protection Agency out of committee for consideration by the full Senate where there are still a number of hurdles.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:07 PM |

West Virginia Governor 2004

With Governor Bob Wise (D) not seeking re-election you would think that the gubernatorial race next year could be exciting. It isn't if this story from the Charleston Daily Mail is any indication -- the candidates' views on the Promise university scholarship program are dissected.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:00 PM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

Rep. Brad Carson, a Bluedog Democrat, is officially in the race to replace retiring Senator Don Nickles (R). The Daily Oklahoman reports that other possible candidates for the Democratic senatorial nomination include state Attorney General Drew Edmondson and state Treasurer Robert Butkin. The paper also reports that state Rep. Mike Fair may run for the Republican nomination. In another article, the paper reports that Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphrey (R) has announced he is forming a campaign committee.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:48 PM |

NH primary date officially set

The AP is reporting that "New Hampshire made it official Tuesday — its presidential primary will take place Jan. 27, 2004."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:25 PM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The Shreveport Times reports that Democratic Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco leads Republican Bobby Jindal 41-35% according to the most recent Market Research and Analysis poll. The two debate tonight for the first time head-to-head.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:31 PM |

Some of my best friends were black

The Boston Globe reports that former Vermont Howard Dean is courting black voters in the South to overcome his impeccable Yankee credentials. The Globe reports "Dean also has made known his friendship with two African-Americans who were his roommates during his freshman year at Yale."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:28 PM |

Bush's numbers

President Bush's approval rating is 56% according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. The poll, taken October 10-12, marks a 6% increase since a similar suvery taken in September and replicates the results of an October 6-8 Gallup poll that showed Bush's approval rating at 55%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:18 PM |

Kucinich in Michigan

The Detroit News reports that Rep. Dennis Kucinich, 2004's Jerry Brown, campaigned in Detroit yesterday and before a college campus c rowd of 40, promised to establish a federal Department of Peace. One Kucinich supporter invoked Martin Luther King saying that the civil rights leader would have supported the idea.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:11 PM |

Michigan caucus 2004

The Detroit News reports that despite worries about hackers, the "digital divide" and other technical problems, the Michigan Democratic Party is going ahead with plans to allow internet voting for next February 7th's Democratic caucus. The plan is expected to give Howard Dean a boost in the state.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:04 PM |

Maryland Senate 2004

The Washington Times reports that Maryland state Senator E.J. Pipkin (R) announced his candidacy for the Republican senatorial nomination in hopes of challenging three-term Senator Barbara Mikulski (D). The Times reports that at a press conference on Monday, Pipkin "refused to answer questions about his stand on issues such as abortion, gun control and the war in Iraq" saying "We have over 13 months to talk about those issues," but he did say he thought Mikulski was defeatable. Josh White, executive director of the state Democratic Party, ridiculed Pipkin's idea that Mikulski is defeatable: "There is no scenario where E.J. Pipkin can defeat Barbara Mikulski, and Republicans know it." According to a recent Annapolis-based Gonzales Research and Marketing poll, Mikulski's approval rating is 64%, with just 13% disapproval rating.
Mikulski won the Senate seat in 1986 with 60% of the vote and was re-elected twice with 71%. But Pipkin has a record of defeating incumbents; last year, he was elected to the state Senate by beating veteran Democratic state Senator Walter Baker. Republicans say Pipkin has advantages that previous challengers, including Alan Keyes in 1992, did not have: he has a personal fortune into which to dip to jump start his campaign, he holds elective office, he can tap the support of Maryland's first Republican governor in more than 30 years (Robert Ehrlich Jr.) and he will have a popular Republican president at the top of the ticket.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:47 PM |

Texas redistricting

The Houston Chronicle reports that Texas Governor Rick Perry has signed a redistricting plan designed to improve Republicans's chances to take a majority of the US House seats in the state. The paper reports that the new "map mostly likely will replace a 17-15 Democratic majority in the congressional delegation with a 22-10 Republican majority." Democrats promise to fight the plan in the courts. The Chronicle reports "The upcoming court battle will be fought over minority voting rights as protected by the federal Voting Rights Act. The act prohibits the dilution of power and influence of minority voters by either packing them into as few districts as possible or by splitting minority communities into multiple districts to diminish their influence."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:10 AM |

Monday, October 13, 2003

Leading in all the wrong places

Or at least not in the right ones. That's the story of General Wesley Clark as he polls well nationally but is behind in the polling in the first primary and caucus states -- Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Donald Lambro has the story in the Washington Times.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:55 PM |

New York Times gloats over perceived GOP troubles

The New York Times reports that the Republican Party is having trouble getting quality candidates to challenge Democrats in key states (Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota) where incumbents seem in trouble. Fine, that's true to a point. But it is not quite true that "The big year that Republicans were hoping for seems to have evaporated" -- as "veteran nonpartisan" Congressional analyst Stuart Rothenberg is quoted as saying. Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina are likely GOP pickups, Florida is more vulnerable than Democrats or their media accomplices will admit (whether or not Senator Bob Graham runs for re-election) and South Dakota will be interesting if former Rep. John Thune (R) runs again for the Senate (he lost by a handful of votes -- votes cast illegally by dead Native-Americans -- in 2002) challenging Minority Leader Tom Daschle. Alaska is not as vulnerable for the GOP as Democrats or the Times like to think. Washington state was never really within the grasp of Republicans, whether or not Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R) challenged Senator Patti Murray (D).
The one ray of hope for GOP that the media sees in next year's Senate races is California now that Arnold Schwarzenegger proved that a Republican can win in the state. The media is wrong. Perhaps they are trying to coax the GOP in spending money in the expensive state to take funds from more competitive and cheaper races. The Republicans should listen to their strategists and not take their cues from liberal-leaning media outlets.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:31 PM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

Shocker announcement yesterday by Rep. Ernest Istook (R) that he will not seek his party's senatorial nomination. The Daily Oklahoman reports today that Istook was the front-runner to replace Senator Don Nickles (R) according to two polls but that instead he would seek re-election to his District 5 House seat. The announcement took most observers by surprise as the press conference was expected to be a campaign launch.
In another article, the Daily Oklahoman reports that Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys "all but announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate" today but he nonetheless picked up an endorsement from Senator Jim Inhofe (R). At the Tulsa Press Club Inhofe said "Kirk Humphreys is so much like Don (Nickles) ... He is a fiscal conservative, a social conservative and he's not embarrassed by it." Inhofe has agreed to be honorary chairman of Humphrey's senatorial campaign. A formal announcement by Humphrey, mayor of Oklahoma City since 1998, about his intention to run is expected in three-four weeks.
Another article reports that Rep. Brad Carson (D) will hold a pair of news conferences on Tuesday to announce he is running for his party's senatorial nomination. The Daily Oklahoman reports that the two-term Congressman's letterhead already includes a U.S. Senate tag.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:43 PM |

Race brought into Lousiana race

The Shreveport Times reports that Lousiana Democratic Party and the state and college branches of the Republican party are criticizing College Democrats of America president Ashley Bell, an LSU law school student, for making ignorantly racialist remarks about Republican gubernatorial candidate Bobby Jindal. In an email invitation to college Democrats to join in Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco's gubernatorial campaign, Bell described Jindal as "Republicans' token attempt to mend bridges long burnt with the Arab-American community." The LDP found the comments to be "offensive, unacceptable and do not in any way reflect the views or sentiments of the Louisiana Democratic Party or Democrats in Louisiana." The College Republican National Committee noted that Jindal was an Indian-born Hindu (convert to Catholicism) and said the college Democrat's attack was "poor geography" and a "racial attack."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:13 PM |

The Lieberman strategy

The Hartford Courant reports that Senator Joseph Lieberman's (CT) strategy to win the Democratic presidential nomination includes finishing third in New Hampshire behind Howard Dean and Senator John Kerry and doing well the week after in the series of February 3 primaries, including South Carolina, New Mexico and Oklahoma (and the next week in Arizona and Michigan). The article notes how little enthusiasm there is among Democratic voters for Lieberman and that he is depending on independents for support in those states that allow such voters to vote in primaries. For now, the Courant reports, he's having trouble getting his message through. Or perhaps its getting through and people aren't buying it.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:50 AM |

Team Arnold rebuffed

According to Robert Novak's Chicago Sun-Times column yesterday, GOP political consultant Mike Murphy turned down Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger's chief-of-staff.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:46 AM |

Clinton's crystal ball

According to Robert Novak's Chicago Sun-Times column yesterday, Bill Clinton says that only two of the Democratic contenders can beat President Bush next year: General Wesley Clark and Senator John Kerry.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:45 AM |

Arnold to muscle GOP centre-ward

The Los Angeles Times reports that "moderate" Republican California Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger might push the GOP to the centre of the political spectrum. The Times raises the possibility that a moderate Republican (for example, former California Secretary of State Bill Jones) could unseat Senator Barbara Boxer (D) next year because Arnold 1) broadens the electoral appeal of the party by appealing to non-conservatives and 2) makes the party more attractive to donate to now that it holds a statewide office. This analysis ignores the fact that it is largely social conservatives (on abortion, gay rights and guns) that make up the grassroots that will go door-to-door or make calls during a campaign. The socially liberal, fiscally conservative country club set are too busy golfing to do such grunt work.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:11 AM |

Lieberman joins class warfare game

There are two prerequisites to running for the Democratic presidential nomination: you must be pro-abortion and you must sew the seeds of class envy. The AP reports that Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT), who has long ago softened his opposition to abortion, has now joined the tax the rich crowd. The AP has the story. For his part, Lieberman denies that its class warfare to tax the rich, calling it, instead, part of "Leading with Integrity."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:03 AM |

Clinton's old War Room is now Clark's War Room

The story is at the Washington Post. With some notable MIAs -- Paul Begala (CNN), James Carville (CNN, HBO) and Terry McAuliffe (DNC) -- the gang's all with Clark. As the Post put it, its like a college reunion.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:55 AM |

Kucinich officially in

AP reports that Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who has been in the Democratic debates and touring Iowa and New Hampshire for eight months, will make his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination official today. That will certainly make the 1-2% of Democrats who support him very happy.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:51 AM |

Sunday, October 12, 2003

The "Unholy Alliance"

The New York Times reports that not only are Rep. Dick Gephardt and Senator John Kerry teaming up against former Vermont Governor Howard Dean in their attacks, but that there are back-channel lines of communications between the two campaigns with the goal of sharing information.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:01 PM |

North Carolina Senate 2004

The Charlotte Observer reports that Erskine Bowles, Clinton's former chief-of-staff and the Democratic loser in the 2002 Senate race who is seeking the Democratic nomination once again, will make the economy the central theme of his campaign. But when it came to specifics, it seemed that healthcare was the central theme. Highlights of Bowles agenda include bringing healthcare costs down and helping seniors pay for their prescription drugs.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:15 PM |

Iowa paper reminds readers that Lieberman wanted to change caucus/primary system

The Des Moines Register ran a story today on a 1999 effort by Senator Joseph Lieberman (D, CT) to move to regional bloc primaries that would rotate order each election cycle. This, of course, would cost Iowa its first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:05 PM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The New Orleans Times-Picayune says that there is little difference, policy wise, between the gubernatorial candidates. Both Bobby Jindal (R) and Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco, the paper finds, are pro-business, pro-educational choice and anti-abortion. But, as they say, the devil -- or at least the important differences -- is in the details.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:02 PM |

Saturday, October 11, 2003

Dean increases Iowa, NH efforts

The Boston Globe reports that Howard Dean is nearly doubling his paid staff in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first caucus and primary states respectively. This raises the stakes for Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) who is thought to have to win Iowa and Senator John Kerry (People's Republic of MA) who is thought to have to win NH, to have any chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:07 PM |

Kentucky Governor 2003

The Lexington Herald-Leader reports that President Bush campaigned for U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R) who is hoping to become the state's governor in November's gubernatorial election. Bush said: "You need to go to your coffee shops. You need to go to community centers and in your house of worship. You need to tell people who haven't made up their minds, they've got a good man in Ernie Fletcher." Fletcher faces state Attorney General Ben Chandler and recent polls indicate the race is too close to call. A Republican has not been elected governor since 1967.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:27 PM |

Indiana Governor 2004

The Indianapolis Star reported yesterday that Governor Joe Kernan (D) who assumed the governorship last month with Governor Frank O'Bannan died suddenly, is not giving any hint whether he plans to seek his party's gubernatorial nomination next year. Last December, as Lt. Governor, Kernan announced that he would not seek the governorship, but he has given mixed signals in recent weeks since assuming the position.
What Kernan did announce was a Lt. Governor: Katherine Davis. Davis was city controller for Indianapolis. Senator Evan Bayh (D), a former governor himself, said the appointment of Davis does not indicate Kernan's own gubernatorial intentions, one way or another.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:36 PM |

Mississippi Governor 2003

The Biloxi Sun Herald reports that Haley Barbour (R) has been endorsed by the Mississippi Restaurant Association.Another Sun Herald story reports that Barbour and Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove have raised $12.8 million for the gubernatorial election -- $7.6 million by Barbour and $5.2 million for Musgrove. However, in terms of cash on hand, Barbour has less than $1 million, Musgrove has $3.4 million.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:12 PM |

Democratic presidential candidates hit Oklahoma

The Daily Oklahoman reports that Senator Joe Lieberman (CT) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) will both be campaigning in Oklahoma next week.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:32 AM |

Oklohoma Senate 2004

The Daily Oklahoman reports that Rep. Ernest Istook and probably Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys will announce their intentions to seek the Republican senatorial nomination for retiring Senator Don Nickles (R). The only announced candidate for the Senate is Democrat Jim Rogers, who ran and lost against Senator Jim Inhofe in 2002. Other Democrats expected to seek their party's Senate nomination include Rep. Brad Carson, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson and state Treasurer Robert Butkin.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:31 AM |

Michigan Polls

The Detroit News reports that Howard Dean leads the Democratic field in Michigan.
According to the Lansing-based EPIC/MRA poll of 400 Michigan Democrats, Dean has the support of 21% of respondents compared to General Wesley Clark's 15%, Rep. Dick Gephardt's (MO) and Senator John Kerry's (People's Republic of MA) 13% and Senator Joseph Lieberman's (CT) 12%. The rest of the pack includes Al Sharpton and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (IL) tied at 4%, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) and dropout Senator Bob Graham (FL) tied at 2% and Senator John Edwards (NC) at 1%. 13% were undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:27 AM |

Political ADD in Illinois

The Chicago Sun-Times reported yesterday that Republican John Cox, who dropped out of the race to become his party's senatorial candidate next year to replace Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R), has said he is considering running for state treasurer or comptroller in 2006. It would be his fourth attempt at public office in six years, with none of the earlier three producing any success.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:17 AM |

Friday, October 10, 2003

Endorsement watch

The AP reports (via Denver Post) reports that Rep. Dick Gephardt received his 18th union endorsement. The latest is from the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, which represents 1 million workers in the United States. An UFCWIA spokesman said its endorsement is based on Gephardt's plan for universal health care.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:18 PM |

Florida Congress 2004

The Orlando Sentinel reports that Connie Mack IV has resigned his state house seat to run for Congress in Fort Myers. Within hours, the Sentinel reports, five Republicans had announced they would run to succeed Mack in the State House and former state Senator Debby Sanderson (R) is considering jumping into the race. Governor Jeb Bush (R) must call a special election which could be held next month or, more likely, next March during the state's presidential primaries.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:56 PM |

Connecticut Governor 2006

The Hartford Courant reports that a Quinnipiac University polls finds Governor John Rowland (R) polling very poorly. The poll of 1,519 respondents from October 1-7 found that his approval rating is 35%, 55% said he was not trustworthy, 54% said he does not have "high ethical standards," and 58% don't believe he cares about their needs and problems. However, 54% said he had strong leadership qualities. Despite the numbers, according to the paper, 70% of "respondents said they would not recall Rowland mid-term even if they could."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:19 PM |

Democratic vultures circle Graham corpse

According to the Des Moines Register, the Democratic candidates are looking to Senator Bob Graham's former Iowa staff, especially General Wesley Clark, who has not commited to running an all-out campaign in the state.
The same story reports that Clark has hired Graham's former New Hampshire campaign director; Steve Bouchard will hold the same position in Clark's New Hampshire campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:12 PM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that both Democratic senators from the state -- Mary Landrieu and John Breaux -- and Democratic Rep. Chris John have endorsed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco in her race against Republican Bobby Jindal. The state's Republican Congressional delegation is supporting Jindal. The paper reported "Congressmen Richard Baker of Baton Rouge, David Vitter of Metairie and Jim McCrery of Shreveport all are backing Jindal. U.S. Rep. Billy Tauzin of Chackbay said he will endorse Jindal in the next week."
Jindal once worked with Breaux on healthcare reform issues in Washington D.C. Jindal directed a healthcare reform commission Breaux co-chaired, but Breaux said "Bobby Jindal was a staffer who worked for us. He did what others told him to do." When Democrats are in trouble they get nasty.
The Lafayette Advertiser reports that according to a poll conducted by Florida-based Market Research Insight two days before the first round of voting last Saturday, the race a dead heat: Blanco has 42% compared to Jindal's 41%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:03 PM |

Schwarzenegger's big tent

It's big enough to include Republicans, RINOs and liberal Democrats. That is, Bill Simon Jr., Richard Riordan and SF mayor Willie Brown. But no Tom McClintock. No surprise, just a little disappointing and spiteful. Los Angeles Times has the details, with lots of interesting names.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:51 PM |

Thursday, October 09, 2003

Democratic nomination race

According to a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Generaly Wesley Clark leads the candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. Clark has the support of 21% of the respondents to the national poll conducted October 6-8, followed by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (16%) and senators Joseph Lieberman (CT) and John Kerry (People's Republic of MA) tied at 13%. In single digits are Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt (8%) Al Sharpton (6%) former Illinois senator Carol Moseley Braun (4%) and Senator John Edwards (NC) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) tied with 2%. 15% were undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:38 PM |

Illinois Senate 2004

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that conservative Republican John Cox is dropping out of the Republican senatorial primary due to poor fundraising. The businessman and radio talk show host is not interested in self financing his campaign and is likely to endorse state Senator Steve Rauschenberger. A Cox spokesman said the reason for his boss getting out of the race is to prevent a "moderate" Republican from winning the primary. Despite his opposition to capital punishment and calling his radio show "The Progressive Conservative," Cox was considered a Reagan Republican and he invoked the former president's name often during his campaign.
Most observers believe the primary and general election campaign will cost $15 million and the Sun-Times reports "Cox's exodus leaves four GOP millionaires in the race -- former investment banker turned teacher Jack Ryan; businessman Andy McKenna Jr.; dairy and investment magnate Jim Oberweis, and Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria, a physician-turned businessman." The paper says "Other potential or announced GOP candidates include retired Air Force Major Gen. John Borling; former state Rep. Jonathan Wright; entrepreneur Antonio Davis Fairman; Lt. Gov. Corinne Wood, and former state Sen. Patrick J. O'Malley.""

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:06 PM |

Illinois Congress 2004

The primary challenge of former convict and Congressman Mel Reynolds against Jesse Jackson Jr. (D,) is getting nasty. According to the Chicago Sun-Times that Chicago Mayor Richard Daley has been dragged into the middle of it. Daley endorsed Jackson in the 2nd Congressional District contest; Reynolds has reminded the public of the spat between Daley and Jackson during the mayor's fifth run for mayor earlier this year and noted that he defended the mayor against cries of racism..

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:54 PM |

Connecticut Governor 2006

The New Haven Register reports that the gubernatorial race three years away could potentially attract eight serious contenders for the Democratic nomination including State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz, New Haven Mayor John DeStefano Jr. and Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy. Byseiwicz has raised $400,000 in an exploratory committee and DeStefano is expected to start fund raising soon. Blumenthal is probably considered the front-runner but is non-committal saying there is a lot of time to think about it nor will he announce his intention to accommodate others who may want to know his decision before they commit to a race: “... I’m not going to be driven by their schedules," he said.
Governor John Rowland (R) was re-elected to his third gubernatorial term last November and said this would be his last but the Register reports that “he recently left that open.”˙

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:53 PM |

Graham dropout fallout

The Miami Herald reported yesterday that the candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination are now more actively seeking donations in Florida now that Senator Bob Graham (D, FL) is out of the race. A Rep. Dick Gephardt fundraiser said many Florida Democrats were loyal to Graham but that they will now support the other candidates.
The second half of the Herald story deals with Graham's own political future. There is pressure on Graham to seek re-election because of the closely divided Senate (51-48), although the article admits Graham could be in the most competitive race since he beat Senator Paula Hawkins in 1986. Aides were even noticing that Graham seemed "rusty" running for the Democratic nomination. The story leaves the impression that someone else may be better suited to take the Democratic banner in 2004.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:41 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

The Miami Herald reports that Senator Bob Graham (D, FL), who recently abandoned his hopeless campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, should decide within two weeks if he will seek re-election. Complicating matters is his interest in joining a possible Democratic administration, perhaps as head of the Department of Homeland Security. However, if Graham wins re-election, a Democratic president is less likely to appoint him to the cabinet because Florida Governor Jeb Bush, a Republican, would appoint Graham's replacement. Also -- and this article is the first place I've seen this mentioned -- Graham is wondering how his failed bid to become the Democratic presidential nominee will effect his re-election chances in the "politically divided state."


Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:09 AM |

Reports of Hillary's presidential filing are exaggerated. Maybe

Newsday reports that the Federal Election Commission has a document on "file with Clinton's name on it and 'president' next to the spot for 'office sought' and '2004' next to 'election year'." An FEC spokesman says 1) that they have had such a document prepared since 1998 and 2) that it was created not because of anything HRC herself has done but in response to the actions of a draft Hillary or an independent person or organization. Of course, one must wonder how independent the draft Hillary or any other group truly is.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:51 AM |

Wednesday, October 08, 2003

Jesse Helms working on his memoirs

The Charlotte Observer reports that former Senator Jesse Helms (R, NC), a conservative stalwart, is working on his memoirs even though he is being slowed down by illness. Despite being hospitalized twice in recent months Helms has been busy writing his memoirs and even attending a political fund-raiser for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Cobey.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:48 PM |

Oklahoma Congress 2004

With Reps. Ernest Istook (R) and Brad Carson (D) all but certain to seek their respective party's senatorial nomination next year, there are already 10 candidates considering running for their Congressional seats. The Daily Oklahoman has the details.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:41 PM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

Retiring Senator Don Nickles (R, OK) told the Daily Oklahoman that he thinks his replacement will be ... a Republican. Thus far, Rep. Ernest Istook and Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys have expressed interesting in running for the Republican nomination. Rep. Brad Carson is the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:16 PM |

Baseball and politics

John Kerry accuses Howard Dean of liking the New York Yankees more than the Boston Red Sox. I couldn't think of a nicer thing to say about Dean, if it is true.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:42 PM |

Endorsement watch

The Associated Press reports that Rep. Dick Gephardt (D, Republic of Unioniana) gets his 16th union endorsement from the 120,000 member Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:40 PM |

Does Arnold victory help Bush in 2004

Generally, the coverage of Schwarzenegger's victory includes some comment about it helping President Bush in California next year. The Washington Times has an entire story dedicated to the idea that it helps. Donald Lambro quotes an un-named "Republican official" saying Arnold's victory "can only help us next year up and down the ticket. As another said, "Over 500,000 people who signed the petition to recall Davis were registered Democrats." But that is precisely the point: the recall was an anti-Davis vote, perhaps a pro-Arnold vote but certainly not a Republican vote. Once Arnold faces the budget and either does nothing about it or cuts spending and raises taxes, his popularity will sink like Davis's over the past 11 months, thus hurting the GOP up and down the ticket.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:36 AM |

Who does Graham dropping out help most

In Iowa, General Wesley Clark. Or so says Shelia McGuire Riggs, Graham's Iowa campaign chairwoman, to the Des Moines Register. Senator John Edwards (D, NC), who is campaigning in Iowa, said he should gain the most because both he and Senator Bob Graham (D, FL) were appealing to moderate and rural voters within the Democratic party.Ä

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:12 AM |

McClintock almost beat Bustamante

In Orange County: Arnold Schwarzenegger 63.9%, Cruz Bustamante 16.9%, Tom McClintock 14.9%. For complete results, including regional breakdowns for recall and candidates, check out the website of the Secretary of State..

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:08 AM |

Illinois Congress 2004

One's chances of regaining a Congressional seat are certainly set back when the newspaper (Chicago Sun-Times) begins its report on the comeback effort thusly: "Convicted felons running for alderman in Chicago are nothing new, but political experts can't recall any convicted sex offenders running for Congress." Former Rep. Mel Reynolds lost his 2nd Congressional District seat in 1995 after being convicted on sexual misconduct, child pornography, obstruction of justice and bank fraud charges. Although he was later pardoned by President Bill Clinton, his name remains on a Chicago list of sexual offenders. He will challenge Jesse Jackson Jr. who replaced him, saying Jackson ignores the needs of his constituents.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:56 AM |

The Republican vote

Not including dozens of Republican candidates who garnered a few hundred votes or even the combined vote of gubernatorial dropouts Peter Ueberroth and Bill Simon, the combined vote for Republicans Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tom McClintock is 62% -- and this in liberal California.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:25 AM |

Arnold is garnering almost 50% support

48.7% to be exact, at least according to the California Secretary of State's website. Impressive list of numbers updated every 10 minutes. You can find, for instance, that nearly 72% of people in Orange County voted for recall (compared to 55% statewide), while in Los Angeles the vote is 50.1% for recall, 49.9% against and in San Francisco County 80.5% voted against recall.
Of the other major candidates, Cruz Bustamante has almost 32% and Tom McClintock is just holding his head above the 13% mark.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:17 AM |

McClintock concedes

AP reports that state Sen. Tom McClintock conceded defeat and promised to support new Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in "challenging and confronting and defeating the spending lobby that's entrenched in the halls of this state Capitol." The wire story reports that this is McClintock's fourth defeat at the polls since 1992 (Congress once, state comptroller twice and now governor) which would make a senate run next year very difficult. Still, he ran a positive and principled campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:53 AM |

Governor Arnold

At 1:25 am, AP reported that Gray Davis has conceded defeat and that based on less than half the votes being counted, Arnold Schwarzenegger will be the next governor. Paul Begala reported on CNN earlier tonight that what's good for the Davis is good for the Arnold and considering that recall is to be used against elected officials who do something wrong while in office, why not recall someone who did something wrong before he was in office. Disgruntled Democrats -- of which Begala is one -- are already talking about recall for early 2005.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:33 AM |

Graham not among shortlist for University of Florida president

The Orlando Sentinel has the shortlist of three candidates to become UF's president. Senator Bob Graham (D, FL) is not among them. This certainly increases the likelihood Graham is running for re-election next year.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:01 AM |

Tuesday, October 07, 2003

Florida Congress 2004

Florida state Rep. Connie Mack IV told the Fort Myers News-Press that he will seek the Republican nomination for the 14 Congressional District currently held by Rep. Porter Goss who is retiring next fall. The paper reports that Mack, son of the former Senator of Florida Connie Mack III and great-grandson of the owner/manager of the Philadelphia A's baseball team, will purchase a house in Lee County and move back there from Fort Lauderdale. There is lots of interest in CD 14. Republican who have officially announced their candidacies include Lee County Commissioners Andy Coy and Doug St. Cerny. Also state Rep. Carole Green (South Lee County) and state Sen. Burt Saunders (Naples) also may join the Republican primary. Mack's name will certainly help; his father held the District before becoming senator in 1988.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:36 PM |

Reuters reports Arnold victory

But there are no numbers in the wire story filed at 11 pm, but Reuters says the Arnold Schwarzenegger won. Also, the story maintains that Schwarzenegger's victory helps President Bush's prospects in the Golden State in next year's presidential election, ignoring the fact (as did Republicans in the recall vote) that unless Schwarzenegger performs miracles to deal with the state's budget crisis, the electorate there will be upset with the GOP by this time next year. Assuming, of course, Arnold is not recalled by then.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:21 PM |

NH Senator's wife abducted

ABC News reports that Kathleen Gregg, wife of Senator Judd Gregg (R, NH), was taken from her home and forced to withdraw an undisclosed amount of cash before the kidnappers and thieves took off with the money. Kathleen Gregg was unharmed. ABC reported that she was active in issue-oriented politics: "President Bush appointed Mrs. Gregg, 52, in 2001 to the board of directors of the Student Loan Marketing Association. She has also served on the New Hampshire Task Force on Child Neglect and Abuse."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:36 PM |