Sunday, November 30, 2003

Oklahoma Senate 2004

Rep. Tom Cole (R) and former Rep. J.C. Watts Jr. (R) both endorsed former Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys in the race for the GOP Senate nomination to replace Senator Don Nickles (R) who is not seeking re-election in '04. Watts represented the 4 Congressional District and Cole replaced him in 2000.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:18 PM |

Oklahoma primaries

The Oklahoma legislature has moved up its primaries for county, state and federal offices to July 27, 2004 instead of the anticipated late August date. Also, the runoff election for candidates who do not get 50% of the vote will be August 24 instead of September and the dates for filing are in June rather than July. The federal Justice Department has complained that when the final rounds of primary voting are not completed until September, there is insufficient time for absentee balloting to be completed in the November general elections.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:11 PM |

South Dakota Senate 2004

Robert Novak reports that Republicans are "more optimistic" that former Rep. John Thune (R), who nearly unseated Senator Tim Johnson in 2002, will agree to run for the GOP against Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle next year. While Thune has sent mixed signals and does not want to post back-to-back Senate losses (and thus end what could be a promising political career), Novak reports that Republicans are convincing him that the Republican turnout will be better next year with President Bush on the top of the ticket. Novak also reports that the only Republican Democrats fear in this race is Thune.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:58 PM |

Conventional politics

Kevin Phillips writes in the Los Angeles Times that the 2004 conventions, especially the Democratic one in Boston, could be more exciting than usual.
Phillips buys into the notion that there is a good chance that the Democratic candidate will not be decided before the convention. This is wishful thinking on the part of political reporters and pundits who are otherwise stuck looking for drama in tightly scripted, tidily choreographed and largely uninteresting conventions. Phillips outlines various scenarios in which no one gets the requisite number of delegates and deigns to prove how Dean can (or can't) pull of the nomination. In one such scenario, Phillips speculates that Dean is the clear leader but unable to piece together any more than a third of the delegates. Phillips suggests a new candidate emerges: former vice president Al Gore. Gore promises to avenge 2000, but to bring a renewed vigour to his campaign nominates Dean as his vice presidential candidate. This, Phillips suggests, will head off a Green or independent challenge from Ralph Nader.
The excitement for the Republican convention in New York City comes from the possibility of terrorist attacks, especially considering the estimated 500,000 Muslims that live in the city (not including an estimated 150,000 Arabs in neighbouring New Jersey). The drama will be heightened by an awesome security force.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:50 PM |

Saturday, November 29, 2003

Jetting off to the presidency

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, former rock star Joan Jett is hoping to go to the Democratic National Convention in Boston as one of New York state's delegate for Howard Dean.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:14 PM |

Massachusetts primary

According to a RKM Research and Communications poll conducted Nov. 19-21 for the Boston Herald and reported by the AP earlier this week, former Vermont Senator Howard Dean leads Senator John Kerry (MA) among likely Democratic presidential primary voters in the state. Dean leads 33%-24% with 21% undecided. Retired General Wesley Clark had 7% followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT) at 4% and Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) at 3%. No one else registered more than 2%. The AP story reported that two other state polls released last weekend indicated a statistical dead heat between Dean and Kerry.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:10 PM |

Iowa primary

The Washington Post reports that Iowa is a major "battleground" where former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt duke it out for first place in the first caucus or primary state. The Post describes Dean's campaign strategy and makes clear what the stakes are for the insurgent cum party favourite: "Dean has never made a secret of his strategy for capturing the Democratic nomination: beat Gephardt in Iowa, beat Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) in New Hampshire and dare any of his opponents to stop him." Dean leads Kerry in NH but is in a close, and for now losing, race with Gephardt in Iowa. But Dean's lead almost everywhere -- where he is not leading, he is clearly among the top tier and always ahead of Gephardt -- makes Iowa the must-win state for Gephardt, not Dean. The Post plays this neck-and-neck race in Iowa as battle for the "resurgent liberal wing" of the Democratic party and makes the often ignored point that Dean has the support of upper-class liberals and newcomers to the Democratic party while Gephardt has the support of working-class Democrats and party loyalists. Take that insight and turn it into analysis and you come up with this: Gephardt wins if he convinces life-long Democrats to vote in the caucus (and subsequent primaries) while Dean wins if he brings in more converts. While the do-or-die implications for Dean in Iowa are overwrought, the Post article is worth reading to better understand the battle for the hearts and minds of the left-leaning Democrats, for the soul of the party.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:25 PM |

South Carolina primary on my mind

The Charlotte Observer reported last weekend that South Carolina Democrats will probably have the necessary $500,000 to pay for the state's presidential primary next February. The state is one of only three -- the other being Texas and Utah -- that make parties pay for the primaries. Still, state Democrats were looking forward to the increased visibility and influence the South Carolina primary would have in 2004 as it is the third state -- after Iowa and New Hampshire -- to hold caucuses or primaries. South Carolina would be the first southern state to hold a primary in 2004, the first state with a significant black population and the state were moderate or hawkish Democrats could do well. The political calculus has changed significantly with South Carolina's move forward in the primary season (along with Oklahoma and others) with some candidates (General Wesley Clark and Senator Joseph Lieberman) down-grading their campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire and down-playing the importance of finishing atop of the heap in those states.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:14 PM |

Friday, November 28, 2003

New York City mayor 2005

The New York Post reports that according to a Quinnipiac University poll of 1,147 registered voters, Michael Bloomberg's likely Democratic rivals would trounce him if an election were held today. Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer leads Bloomberg, 51%-33% according to the poll which wsa conducted November 17-23. City Council Speaker Gifford Miller leads Bloomberg 41%-33%. Miller has never ran in a city-wide election.
Bloomberg's personal ratings are very bad. He has a 37% positive rating compared to a 51% negative one. In October, it was much closer, 42% positive compared to 47% negative. Most political analysts say an elected official's career is over once their popularity ratings fall below 40%.
Ferrer and Miller are considered very likely to run for the Democratic mayoral nomination in 2005. Another potential candidate is City Comptroller Bill Thompson
Although not polled in head-to-head match-ups with the mayor, Thompson had a positive ratings twice as high as his negatives.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:15 PM |

North Carolina Democratic primary

The Boston Globe reports that according to a telephone poll conducted for Greenville Magazine, Senator John Edwards (NC) leads the Democratic field in South Carolina with 17% support, followed by Al Sharpton who has 12%. Nearly one in four or 22% were undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:42 AM |

Wednesday, November 26, 2003

Florida polling numbers

The Tallahassee Democrat reports that according to the lastest Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc poll in the Sunshine State, President George W. Bush leads all the Democratic candidates by at least 20 points. It is the first polling of head-to-head matchups since Senator Bob Graham bailed in October. (Sorry but even the Mason-Dixon website story does not have the specifics.)
In the Democratic primary, Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT), has 21% support compared to former Vermont Governor Howard Dean's 17%. Lieberman, of course, has a huge name recognition advantage in the state because he was the vice presidential candidate in the hotly contested election of 2000. Dean's campaign noted that the 4% differential was within the poll's margin of error.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:11 PM |

Graham's kids/staff scatter among candidates

The Miami Herald reports that three important figures in the Senator Bob Graham's ultimately failed quest to become the Democratic presidential candidate, have moved onto the Howard Dean and Wesley Clark campaigns, including two of Graham's daughters. Graham's oldest daughter, Gwen Logan, has joined Dean's campaign as a regional (southern) advisor. Her first task is ensuring that her new boss gets good coverage during the state Democratic convention in Orlando next week. Graham's third oldest (of four) daughters, Suzanne Gibson, is a volunteer fundraiser for Clark, raising money for the candidate in her home state of Virginia. Also, Graham's former national campaign manager, Paul Johnson, has taken the same position with Clark. These connections to candidates that many political observers believe will be the likely Democratic presidential candidate, will surely re-inforce the talk of Senator Graham being named the vice presidential nominee.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:52 PM |

Expect the unexpected in Louisiana politics

Interesting article on how the can't miss front-runners have repeatedly come up short in Louisiana politics in the New Orleans Times-Picayune. Over the years, candidates not even expected to make the run-off have become governor and senator. In the early '70s, no one expected Edwin Edwards and Bennett Johnson to win. Or later David Treen, Buddy Roemer (about whom a pollster said six weeks before he was elected governor, "The only major candidate who can't make the runoff is Roemer, because his negatives are too high") or Mike Foster. Bobby Jindal didn't win the statehouse, but he was not expected to make the run-off. Fascinating article.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:59 AM |

California Senate 2004

The Sacramento Bee reports that Rep. Darrell Issa (R), the money behind the recall petition against now former governor Gray Davis, has announced he will not seek the GOP Senate nomination next year. Instead, the second-term Congressman filed re-election papers. Issa's decision to forgo the race leaves the field relatively clear for front-runner, former California Secretary of State Bill Jones. The winner of the Republican nomination will face Senator Barbara Boxer (D).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:12 AM |

Tuesday, November 25, 2003

Kentucky Congress 2004

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Nick Clooney, father of actor George Clooney and brother to the late Rosemary Clooney, is hoping to replace Rep. Ken Lucas (D, KY). Clooney is a broadcaster and newspaper columnist in Cincinatti and is counting on his media profile to propel him to Congress. Clooney hopes that his famous son "will contribute the $2,000 allowed.''
Earlier this week, Lucas, a three-term Congressman who promised to term limit himself in 1996 to six years in Congress, announced he will not seek re-election. Earlier this year, he said he would break that pledge and seek re-election. Upon reversing his reversal on November 24, Lucas said "'Historically, renouncing the term-limits pledge by some of my colleagues here in Congress has never been a problem for re-election ... However, it has been an ever-increasing problem for me and my conscience.'' Lucas has already endorsed Clooney.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:34 PM |

Vermont Governor 2004

The Rutland Herald reports that former lieutenant governor and 2002 gubernatorial candidate Douglas Racine won't seek the Democratic Party's nomination for governor. If he ran and won the nomination, the 2004 campaign would have been a rematch of 2002 when he narrowly lost to Republican James Douglas. The remaining Democratic candidates include Burlington mayor Peter Clavelle (who is both a Progressive and a Democrat) and Peter Shumlin, former president pro tem of the state Senate. No incumbent Vermont governor has lost since 1962.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:34 PM |

South Dakota Senate 2004

The Aberdeen News reports that while former Representative and losing 2002 GOP Senate candidate John Thune delays announcing his political intentions, former Senator Larry Pressler (R, SD) said that Republican candidates need to step up to the plate sooner rather than later. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) is considered somewhat vulnerable next year and the state's lone congressional seat may become open because Rep. Bill Janklow (R) is facing a second degree murder trial for a lethal automobile accident he was involved in earlier this year. Thune is considering one of three options: a second run for the Senate, trying to regain his old congressional seat or sitting out the 2004 election cycle. (That would be the list of options, wouldn't it?) Other potential candidates, the paper reports, are "politely" waiting to see the outcome of Janklow's trial. But Pressler says the party can't wait. He warned that neighbouring North Dakota is considered a Republican state with a completely Democratic congressional delegation "and South Dakota's on the verge of that." Senator George Allen (R, VA), head of the Republican National Senatorial Committee, was in South Dakota once again trying to convince Thune to challenge Daschle.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:37 AM |

South Carolina not on my mind

Michael Graham reports in National Review Online's The Corner blog that the Democratic Party of South Carolina may not have enough money to hold their primary next February. State law requires the parties to pick up the tab for the primaries and the Democrats apparently do not have the $500,000 they will need to hold statewide elections. Graham reports that Howard Dean is brushing off South Carolina and focusing on Virginia, saying a win there proves he could win in the South.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:26 AM |

Monday, November 24, 2003

Iowa caucus

The Des Moines Register reports that one-fifth of Democratic caucus goers are still undecided. The caucus is less than two months away (January 19).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:47 PM |

Washington Governor 2004

The Olympian reports that Attorney General Christine Gregoire, a candidate for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, has won the endorsement of the Public School Employees of Washington. The union represents 27,000 non-teachers in the education system. The Washington Education Association has indicated they will not endorse a candidate until spring and said there is no clear favourite to receive their backing. Gregoire is facing King County executive Ron Sims and Phil Talmadge, a former state Supreme Court justice for the Democratic nomination and has already received the endorsements of the Washington Council of Police & Sheriffs, Washington State Council of Fire Fighters, the state affiliate of the Fraternal Order of Police and the pro-abortion EMILY's List. Also, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano headlined a fundraising event Monday morning.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:44 PM |

Sunday, November 23, 2003

Deleware Governor 2004

The News Journal reports that state Attorney General M. Jane Brady leads former Superior Court Judge Bill Lee 39%-28% for the GOP gubernatorial nomination next year. The Mason-Dixon poll of 306 likely Republican voters, commissioned by WBOC-TV in Salisbury, Md., and conducted in October also found state House Speaker Terry Spence with 5% and pilot Mike Protack with 3%.
At the same time, the Mason-Dixon poll asked 625 registered voters about the gubernatorial election and found Governor Ruth Ann Minner (D) leading Brady 47%-40%. Against Lee, Minner leads 46%-38%.
While Brady has a solid lead in the polls, she has yet to announce. Lee, her primary opponent, says he thinks Brady will stay at the Attorney General's office. Lee boasts numerous party endorsements including Rep. Mike Castle (R). This is Lee's second shot at becoming the gubernatorial candidate for the Republicans, losing the 2000 primary by a mere 50 votes.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:19 PM |

Kentucky Senate 2004

The Louisville Courier Journal reports that lawyer Fred Cowan has dropped out of the Democratic Senate nomination because he thinks that the GOP gubernatorial victory earlier this month makes it extremely difficult to unseat Senator Jim Bunning (R) next year. Cowan, a former state attorney general, said that after the November 4 gubernatorial loss, fundraising has nose-dived. Cowan had been raising money since spring but he currently trails Bunning with a mere $233,000 cash on hand compared to Bunning's $2,663,030.
The only official remaining candidate, state Senator Daniel Mongiardo, is likely to have company again soon as state Treasurer Jonathan Miller (D) is seriously considering a run. Other possible candidates being lauded by Democrats include Louisville lawyer Jack Conway, who lost to Rep. Anne Northup (R, 3rd CD) last year but proved adept at fundraising, netting nearly $1.7 million for a Congressional campaign, and Louisville multimillionaire Charlie Owen who was on Ben Chandler's losing ticket earlier this month as the lieutenant governor nominee.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:50 PM |

Washington 2004

The Associated Press reports that Krist Novoselic, co-founder and bassist for the alternative band Nirvana, says he may run for Washington state lieutenant governor. The story reports that Novoselic is active in "Democratic party circles" but may nonetheless challenge Democratic Lt. Governor incumbent Brad Owen. The position is largely ceremonial -- presiding over the state Senate and filling in for the governor when he is out of state.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:25 PM |

Saturday, November 22, 2003

Rove to get his wish

The Miami Herald repeated White House advisor Karl Rove's line from last summer about wanting Howard Dean to win the Democratic presidential nomination. "That's the one we want," he is reported to have said. The Herald outlines Dean's challenge: "Should Dean win the Democratic nomination, he'll find the Bush campaign will have $200 million-plus to buy TV ads that would define Dean as an out-of-touch, tax-and-spend, weak-on-defense liberal, just as Republicans did with great success against George McGovern in 1972, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988." The paper added, "Rove could run much of an anti-Dean campaign using the words of Dean's fellow Democrats." The Democrats -- all of them but especially Dean -- are in bad shape and are in the position of wanting the economy to tank and continued casualties in Iraq. If these don't happen, Dean has little to run on. And Team Bush will have a lot with which to run against Dean.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:17 PM |

North Carolina polling numbers

For both the Democratic nomination and presidential match-ups. The Charlotte Observer reports that Research 2000 poll that the Raleigh News & Observer commissioned found that President Bush leads N.C. Senator John Edwards 52%-42%, General Wesley Clark 50%-40% and Howad Dean 54%-40%. No Democrat has won North Carolina's electoral votes since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
In the Democratic primary, Edwards lead Dean 43%-25%, with none of the other candidates in double digits. Dean's support has doubled since January and Senator John Kerry (MA) saw his support drop from 20% in July to 9%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:11 PM |

Bush vs. Bush

The St. Petersburg Times is running a story which is largely a repeat of the political journalism offered by other Florida newspaper in the last week or so. The Times claims that there is a serious rift between President George W. Bush and Governor Jeb Bush over the Republican Senate nomination next year. The White House clearly favours Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, a moderate with cross-over appeal who could attract Hispanic voters. The paper says the Jeb Bush is upset with the White House's meddling in the Sunshine State's politics. The impetus for the sudden interest in Martinez pursuing the Senate nomination seems to be twofold: the incumbent, Senator Bob Graham dropped out of the race and the percolating rumours that Rep. Katherine Harris of 2000 recount infamy would seek the nomination. It is widely presumed that President Bush doesn't want Harris on the ballot reminding Florida voters of the bitter weeks-long fight after election day in 2000.
Jeb Bush, the paper says, has "urged other Republicans to stay in the race and praised their 'courage' to take on Democrat Bob Graham before knowing he would not seek another term." But I wouldn't think that the governor would do anything less. Even if Jeb Bush thought Martinez was the best candidate, the party would do well to have a primary. There are several good candidates and a vigorous and honest campaign should determine the party's Senate nominee, not a coronation.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:02 PM |

California Senate 2004

It is becoming increasingly likely that former California Secretary of State Bill Jones will run for the GOP Senate nomination. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was rumoured to be ready to name Jones as the state's Resources Manager, one of two cabinet level positions responsible for conservation issues. But Schwarzenegger appointed Mike Chrisman, a regional manager for Southern California Edison and former deputy resources secretary and undersecretary of food and agriculture during the administration of Governor Pete Wilson. With that announcement, it is thought that Jones is likely to run for the Senate and, if he captures the GOP nomination, challenge Senator Barbara Boxer (D) next year.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:46 PM |

Pennsylvania Senate 2004

The Associated Press reports that Senator Arlen Specter (R) holds big leads over both his primary challenger and his likely Democratic opponent. Specter leads conservative Republican Rep. Pat Toomey 49%-18% among 257 registered Republicans polled. Fully one-third of respondents have yet to make up their mind. (Sampling-error margin of plus or minus 6 percentage points.) In a hypothetical but likely race against Democratic Rep. Joe Hoeffel, Specter leads 47%-25%, with 28% undecided. This poll of 593 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.
The Keystone Poll from Franklin & Marshall College was conducted October 27-November 16 and sponsored by the Philadelphia Daily News, The Patriot-News in Harrisburg and the Pittsburgh Tribune Review.
The story also noted that Hoeffel faces a challenger for the Democratic nomination: Lancaster, PA, software developer Charlie Crystle, a political newcomer.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:10 PM |

Friday, November 21, 2003

Endorsement watch

The Baltimore Sun reports that Howard Dean is about to pick up his second Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) member endorsement of the week: Rep. Elijah Cummings (MD). Cummings is the chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus; the Sun reports that endorsement "could help the former Vermont governor gain traction with African-American voters in his pursuit of the Democratic presidential nomination." The paper reports that black voters have yet to rally behind any of the nine Democratic candidates, including either of the black candidates (Carol Moseley Braun or Al Sharpton).
Cummings said "If Democrats are going to win, we have to have somebody like that to energize our base." Does that mean the "the base" is code for black voters? Anyway, while Dean has yet to catch fire with black voters, black leaders have rallied behind him: Reps. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. (IL) and the CBC vice chair Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee (TX), and former Baltimore Mayor Kurt Schmoke.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:50 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

Rep. Alcee Hastings has dropped out of the race to become the Democratic Senate nominee next year. Hastings, elected to the House of Representatives in 1992 becoming the first black Congressman (with two others that year) from the state of Florida. Hastings decision leaves only three Democrats, all with high profiles: Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas, Rep. Peter Deutsch and Betty Castor, a former Florida education commissioner, president of the University of South Florida and state legislator. Castor is considered the frontrunner.
Earlier this week, Hastings, is a member of the Congressional Black Caucus and whom the Miami Herald calls a "liberal Democrat," endorsed presidential candidate Senator Joseph Lieberman.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:41 PM |

Thursday, November 20, 2003

Democratic primaries

Apparently because she wasn't marginal enough, former Senator Carol Mosely Braun (IL), a candidate for the Demcratic presidential nomination, has endorsed same-sex marriage. Earlier this week, CMB hired former National Organization of Women president Patricia Ireland as her new campaign manager.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:58 PM |

Endorsement watch II

Conservative activist Paul Weyrich has endorsed Rep. Pat Toomey's (Penn) campaign to unseat incumbent Senator Arlen Specter as the Republican candidate for Senate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:52 PM |

Kentucky Senate 2004

The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that state Senator Daniel Mongiardo has announced he will seek the Democratic senatorial nomination in order to challenge Senator Jim Bunning (R) next year. The 47-year-old, two-term state senator, is also a medical doctor and he says it is time for new ideas in Washington. He said, "While politicians in Washington just keep talking, health care costs keep skyrocketing, the quality of care is dropping and too many Kentuckians are forced to go without insurance." Bunning supporter and donor Michael Plummer said "Mongiardo has no name, no money and a broken Democratic machine for a campaign team."
Thus far only Mongiardo and former state attorney general Fred Cowan are the only two declared candidates. Louisville businessman Charlie Owen, recently defeated in his quest to become the state's lieutenant governor, is rumoured to be mulling a run. Owen lost the Democratic Senate nomination to Scotty Baesler in 1998. Regardless of who wins, Bunning is considered the heavy favourite. Bunning, a former Major League Baseball pitcher, has raised $2 million for his re-election campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:46 PM |

California Senate 2004 II

The Los Angeles Times reports that Republican Judge James P. Gray will seek the Libertarian nomination for Senate next year. Gray, an opponent of the war on drugs, changed party registration in order to highlight what he calls the failures of the drug war. He advocates treatment instead of jail time for drug offenders. During his announcement that he is running, Gray said "Every single vote I get will legitimately be seen in favor of repealing drug prohibition." He said he hopes to get 15% of the popular vote in the general election.message of greater individual freedoms better aligns with his own. The Times reports that the Libertarian Party typically "draws between 1% and 2% of the vote in U.S. Senate races."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:32 PM |

California Senate 2004

Rep. David Dreier (R) has said he is not interested in challenging Senator Barbara Boxer (D) in 2004. Former Secretary of State Bill Jones, who said he would not run if Dreier was a candidate, says he is "seriously considering" entering the race. He was recently offered a post at the Resource Agency by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger; Jones said he would turn that down to run for the Senate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:25 PM |

Endorsement watch

Rep. Dick Gephardt is once again winning some big union endorsements. The Boston Globe reports that the 125,000-member Transport Workers Union will support Gephardt's presidential candidacy. The Missouri Democrat has also won the backing of the Missouri members of the United Auto Workers. Earlier this year, the UAW declined to make an endorsement but allowed state or local affiliates to back candidates.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:20 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

Former Senator Bob Smith (R) is considering running to replace Senator Bob Graham in Florida. Smith represented New Hampshire in the Senate from 1990 to 2002 but was defeated in the Republican primary last year by John E. Sununu. Earlier this year he moved to Florida to sell real estate. When contacted by the Manchester Union Leader on his cell phone, Smith twice hung up "after the reporter identified himself."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:16 PM |

Wednesday, November 19, 2003

Endorsement watch II

Howard Dean reports on his blog, BlogForAmerica, that he has received his 13th congressional endorsement, Houston-area Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee. Lee cited healthcare and civil rights issues as the reason she endorsed Dean. Jackson-Lee, a black who represents the 18 CD, obviously was not as offended by Dean's recent comments about the confederate-flag wielding, pickup truck drivers as New York city white liberals were. She joins Reps. Neil Abercrombie, Bob Filner, Raúl Grijalva, Maurice Hinchey, Zoe Lofgren, Jim McDermott, Jerrold Nadler, Major Owens, Frank Pallone, Tim Ryan, and David Wu, in addition to Vermont Senator Patrick J. Leahy, as members of Congress who have endorsed Dean.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:22 PM |

Democratic primaries: New York

The first Zogby poll for New York state for the Democratic presidential nomination shows Howard Dean has a substantial lead there with 21%, followed by Wesley Clark (10%), Senator John Kerry and Rep. Dick Gephardt tied with 7%, Al Sharpton and Senator Joseph Lieberman tied at 6%, followed by former Senator Carol Mosely Braun, Senator John Edwards and Rep. Dennis Kucinich tied at 1% each. In head-to-head matchups with President Bush, Clark, Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman all lead by at least 5%, but with Gephardt having the largest lead, 48%-38%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:17 PM |

California Senate 2004

The GOP search for a high-profile candidate to take on Senator Barbara Boxer (D) has yet to land a person with -- in the words of The Hill -- money, moxie and name recognition. Thus far the state Republicans who three candidates who don't have that (former Los Altos Hills Mayor Toni Casey, former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin and state Assemblyman Tony Strickland) and two candidates that display such qualities but who have yet to throw their hat into the ring (former Secretary of State Bill Jones who recently took a position with the Schwarzenegger administration and Rep. David Dreier). However, a third possibility is not ruling it out. Rep. Darrell Issa, who bankrolled the recall petition, is said to be conducting polls to see how he would do in a Senate race. The Hill reports that he is unlikely to take the plunge but aides to Issa say he has yet to make up his mind. That said, Issa’s chief of staff, Dale Neugebauer, said "We’ve taken out papers for our reelection to the House," before muddying the waters and adding, "I think he has an open mind and hasn’t ruled out the possibility" of running for the Senate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:03 PM |

Endorsement watch

AP reports that Rep. Alcee Hastings (D, FL) has endorsed Joseph Lieberman for the Democratic presidential nomination, praising his position on national security and his leadership and history with civil rights issues. Hastings, who represents the 23rd CD, will announce November 21 whether he will run for the Democratic Senate nomination to replace Senator Bob Graham (D).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:51 PM |

Ohio's place in national politics

The Washington Post's Harold Meyerson says its huge. In fact, the obvious conclusion from his column today is that assuming the Democrats win everything they won in 2000 (which is not necessarily a safe assumption), all they have to do is pick up one state worth six electoral votes or more to win the presidency. Florida, Meyerson says, is not really in play. Democrats don't believe this and there is the matter of pride or at least re-fighting the last election. Meyerson makes the case for Democrats focusing on Ohio: Bush won but narrowly (3.5%) despite Gore writing it off early in his campaign and the number of registered Democrats have increased since 2000. Hardly the most convincing reasons, but at least something for Democrats to build on. All of this, of course, is a result of the fact that the party concedes the south (sans Florida) to the GOP.
Meyerson makes another important point: if the Democrats want to win mid-western states, it cannot have Howard Dean as their presidential candidate. The former Vermont governor, Meyerson says, appeals to east and left coast liberals and not working class middle America. The candidate to energize these voters, is Rep. Dick Gephardt or General Wesley Clark. The question that Meyerson does not answer, for he doesn't even raise it, is whether such a candidate will energize the east and left coasts.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:46 PM |

Monday, November 17, 2003

Two day holiday

Paulitics will return on Wednesday, November 19.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:25 AM |

Sunday, November 16, 2003

New Jersey Governor 2005

The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that
Christopher Christie, the U.S. prosecutor in New Jersey, is the front-runner to become the Republican gubernatorial candidate in 2005. Christie, 41, has been prosecuting political corruption but has been silent on his political intentions, although he admits it would be inappropriate to mix politics and prosecutions. Some state GOP officials are leading what appears to be a draft Christie movement and are comparing him to former New York City mayor and U.S. attorney Rudy Giuliani. The paper reports that many establishment Republicans want Christie to run to prevent Bret Schundler, the conservative Republican who lost to Democrat James McGreevey in 2001, from winning the party's primary.
Christie has prosecuted political corruption and is investigating the activities of several close McGreevey aides and fund-raisers. However, he has also investigated a Republican state senator, and some in the GOP see this as increasingly the likelihood that he will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. Republicans who have expressed interest in running include Schundler, the departing Assembly minority leader Paul DiGaetano, former US Senate candidate Douglas Forrester, state Senator Diane Allen and state Senator Thomas Kean Jr., the son of former Governor Tom Kean.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:38 PM |

Dean to the Democratic destruction

Regardless of the Louisiana gubernatorial results yesterday, Southern Democrats are worried about their party's prospects for 2004, especially if it is led by a liberal former New England governor. Been there, done that, not doing it again. Howard Dean can complain that he is not as liberal as he is portrayed but neither is he as conservative as he claims. (The credit for Vermont's balanced budgets goes at least as much to the Republican-controlled legislature.) As Donald Lambro reports in the Washington Times, southern Democrats are worried. Kentucky state Rep. Susan Westrom, who also serves as the state's Democratic chairman, said "I think Dean is perceived as quite liberal. Unless his perception can go beyond the governor of Vermont who signed legislation supporting gay 'marriages,' that is a death knell here in Kentucky." North Carolina Democratic Chairwoman Barbara Allen said Dean spells trouble for the party in the South: "I don't think he plays that well in North Carolina. I don't think he will play well in the South, period." And Tennessee state Democratic Chairman Randy Button said of Dean becoming the party's presidential nominee: "someone of more moderate thinking would play better in the South." The conventional wisdom says that Democrats have to win Southern states or they will have a difficult time winning the White House. The South has 169 electoral votes out of the necessary 270 to win. The Democrats have not won the White House without a southerner on the ticket since before President Eisenhower.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:26 PM |

Democratic primary: Clark

The Washington Post reports that former General Wesley Smith is stepping up his campaigning in New Hampshire by purchasing television and radio advertising. But while Clark has not ignited support on the state-by-state level -- he has just 5% in New Hampshire in a recent poll and is not even contesting Iowa -- his national numbers are better and he is expected to raise more money in the last quarter than any Democratic candidate not named Howard Dean, with some estimating $12 in donations. The advertising campaign in New Hampshire is a total $1.1 million purchase featuring 60-second commercials and is to be followed by a media blitz in South Carolina and Arizona.
The necessity of the commercials stems from not meeting expectations of becoming a serious, if not the only serious challenger to Howard Dean. Despite a first-week blip in the polls, Dean has actually increased his poll numbers since Clark announced his candidacy in September. The Post reports that "Clark has been no small part of the problem, political strategists say. Although he has been in the public arena as an Army officer for 34 years, and as a commentator on CNN, his campaign aides said he was not quite prepared for an environment where his every utterance was scrutinized and challenged."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:10 AM |

California Senate 2004

The Fresno Bee reports that former California Secretary of State Bill Jones may be Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger's choice to head the state Resources Agency, which oversees Parks and Recreation, Fish and Game, the Coastal Commission and other boards and departments. Jones, a member of Schwarzenegger's transition team who had reportedly turned down the chief of staff job, was rumoured to be interested in running for the GOP Senate nomination for the right to challenge Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. The appointment would take out of the running one of the foremost names from the race.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:50 AM |

Democratic primary: New Hampshire

The Associated Press (via the Washington Post) reports that Howard Dean's lead over Senator John Kerry is expanding according to a recent WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Dean now more than doubles Kerry, 38%-16%. In an October UNH poll, Dean led Kerry 30%-17%. Also, in that poll, former General Wesley Clark had 10%, but that has been halved and he is tied with Senator and John Edwards at 5 percent, followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman (4%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (3%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun who each had 1% or less.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:40 AM |

Democrats win in Louisiana

Ruining the chances of the GOP to go a perfect 4 for 4 in gubernatorial races this year, Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco (D), a 20-year veteran of state politics, beat Bobby Jindal (R), a former Louisiania state univeristies head and assistant secretary of health in the Bush administration. The Associated Press has just reported that "With all but one of the 4,143 precincts counted, Blanco had 52 percent, or 730,737 votes, to Bobby Jindal's 48 percent, or 676,18." There was higher than expected turnout with the Blanco campaign making a strong effot to increase the number of voters. The AP reported Oliver Thomas, president of the New Orleans City Council, said the campaign had people working the street corners, "pulling people out of their cars to get them to vote." Blanco did well in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and northern Louisiana, while Jindal did well in the New Orleans suburbs.
Democrats prevented what would be a "clean sweep" of the deep south -- South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana -- by the GOP, something that has not happened since Reconstruction. History was made, however, with Blanco becoming the state's first woman governor.
Predictably, Democrats were delighted. Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said Blanco's win demonstrates that "with the right message we win ... It looks like the vaunted Republican tidal wave just receded from the banks of the Mississippi." He predicted that that the tight race will be replicated nationally next year and said the loss portends serious difficulties in Bush's race to be re-elected in 2004.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:32 AM |

Saturday, November 15, 2003

Louisiana Governor 2003

Today is election day in Louisiana with Republican whiz kid Bobby Jindal (former everything) facing Democratic Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco. Recent polls showed Jindal pulling ahead of his rival but analysts say the result may hinge on black voter turnout. Paulitics prediction: Jindal 54%, Blanco 46%. Black vote remains at home because Jindal's excellent outreach to minorities that culminated in New Orleans' black Democratic mayor endorsing the Republican, shows that the GOP is not all that bad.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:28 PM |

Democratic primary

The Boston Globe is reporting that with the personnel problems that have plagued the Democratic presidential nominating campaign of Senator John Kerry (MA) and the fact that he is languishing in the polls in neighbouring New Hamphire, Senator John Edwards (NC) is expanding efforts in the Granite State. He is currently polling third in New Hampshire, completed a major swing through the state and hired additional staff. Kerry's staff dismisses the idea that Edwards could pull off an upset in the state.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:25 PM |

Kerry's millions

Senator John Kerry (MA), a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, is opting out of federal matching funds in the pre-convention portion of the campaign, thus freeing himself of the $45 million limit (with specific state-by-state spending caps). Howard Dean and President Bush have also disavowed the matching funds.
Kerry said that he will dip into his personal fortune to help pay for the campaign. He is married to Teresa Heinz, the widow of former Senator John Heinz. She is worth an estimated $500 million. In the most recent reporting quarter, Senator Kerry showed a slowed ability to raise funds.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:20 PM |

Friday, November 14, 2003

Clarification

Earlier today there were a number of posts on the US Catholic bishops, the cabal leading the American imperialist charge and the Canadian cold. These were accidently posted on Paulitics and have since been removed. Sorry for any confusion or inconvenience this may have caused.ˇ

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:38 PM |

Florida Governor 2006

The same Palm Beach Post article says that federal Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez recently looked at the polls and political realities in the Sunshine State and determined that the state's chief financial officer Tom Gallagher was likely to win. Recent polls showed Gallagher in the lead and Martinez in a distant third.G

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:32 PM |

Jeb not happy with brother over Florida Senate race

The Palm Beach Post reported that Florida Governor Jeb Bush "is angry with White House political operatives for expecting to 'take over' Florida's U.S. Senate race by trying to clear the decks for a run by HUD Secretary Mel Martinez." The governor is apparently so angry that according to "some sources" he has contacted another Republican candidate, state Senator Daniel Webster, and told him "to run and run hard." The conflict is, I would guess, being played up. Jeb emailed the Post to tell them he thinks the entire field of candidates (in which he listed all them except Judicial Watch founder Larry Klayman) are good candidates, including Martinez, saying "We will have a strong field of candidates either way and a republican will become the next United States senator from Florida." Still, the governor has taken what is widely perceived to be a dig at Martinez: "If he runs, he's going to have to earn it. This year we have had candidates who had the courage to run when Bob Graham was still in the race."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:24 PM |

Utah Governor 2004

The Salt Lake Tribune reports that former Rep. Jim Hansen (R), a candidate for the GOP gubernatorial nomination next year, has rolled his former congressional campaign account to his gubernatorial campaign fund. The $108,472 cash infusion puts him near the other contenders in terms of cash-on-hand. According to the paper, Jon Huntsman Jr., a deputy United States trade representative, and Fred Lampropoulos “are multimillionaires who could pay for their races out of their own pockets if they chose to do so.” Lampropoulos has raised more than $415,000 through his Progress Utah PAC, although he donated most of that himself. Also running is Utah House Speaker Marty Stephens, who is estimated to have a quarter-million dollars in his campaign and PAC accounts, and state Board of Regents chair Nolan Karras, Utah County commissioner Gary Herbert and state Senator Parley Hellewell. Newly installed Governor Olene Walker has not indicated whether she will run for office next year. While former Governor Mike Leavitt spent $2 million on his 2000 re-election bid, it is expected that it will take more to run a viable candidate against Democratic front runner Scott Matheson Jr, a professor of law.s

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:23 PM |

It's not a Jewish cabal leading America to become an imperialist power

It's a Canadian cabal. Again Roger Kimball blogging in Arma Virumque:
"Americans are notoriously poor imperialists. Indeed, they have to import them: David Frum, Michael Ignatieff, Charles Krauthammer, Mark Steyn. People on the idiot left and right talk darkly about the Jewish cabal in the neocon movement. The reality is a good deal more pedestrian, eh? Throw in Lord Black and Barbara Amiel, and you’ll find that it’s an international conspiracy."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:16 AM |

Canada's foreign policy idiocy is not all about ideology

Roger Kimball, on New Criterion's blog, Arma Virumque:
"National Review once profiled Canada’s Maurice Strong as 'International Man of Mystery.' But there was nothing mysterious about a bureaucrat who wanted to move from Ottawa to the U.N. The mystery would be wanting to stay in the world’s coldest capital city. Similarly, there isn’t an international court than doesn’t have its share of Canadian lawyers fresh from Downsview, Ont. or Notre-Dame-de-Grace, P.Q. The Hague is not on most tourist maps, but things look a lot different from Saskatoon, Sask. Trust me on that."
So the upside of global warming, if the climatological hysteria ends up being true, is that Canadian do-gooders may not want to go elsewhere to commit mischief. Then again, that's only an upside if you live somewhere other than Canada.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:15 AM |

Bishops begin to behave Catholicly

Not only has the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops released a statement on same-sex marriage, it has released a statement on contraception. The Boston Globe reports that Chester Gillis, chairman of the theology department at Georgetown University, said (in the paper's words) "the contraception document is probably aimed mostly at pleasing the Vatican." It is nice to know that bishops are trying to placate the Vatican, never mind that they have (finally) spoken out about contraception, albeit merely in a statement. Gillis said, "American Catholics have largely not been very attentive to the church's teaching on sexual ethics, and I think among younger Catholics, this is really probably not going to change their minds." Perhaps that is because Catholic priests and bishops never speak out against contraception from the pulpit. They do not teach their flocks the Catholic teaching on contraception (and so much else). Is is really too much to ask Catholic clergy to be, well, Catholic?

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:08 AM |

Democratic primary

The Des Moines Register reported Wednesday that Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D, OH) is not going to let poor fundraising and even worst polling numbers deter his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. He told the editorial board of the Register, "Obviously, my campaign is seen as being way back in the pack right now," but he blames the media for not covering him and dismisses the fact that he is languishing with a mere 3% in Iowa according to one recent poll. He says "Some people are starting to say they like the fact that I'm a long shot, and that's why they're backing me." The lovable loser is hardly the image of a would-be president, but it might be all that the Ohio Congressman has.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:03 AM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The most recent gubernatorial poll found that Republican Bobby Jindal leads Democrat Kathleen Blanco 49%-39%. The poll of 600 respondents was conducted November 9-11 by Market Research Insight. The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Jindal's support is stronger: "45 percent of those polled were strongly committed to Jindal, with 4 percent leaning toward him, while 36 percent were strongly committed, to Blanco with an additional 3 percent leaning her way."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:46 AM |

Thursday, November 13, 2003

Nevada Senate 2004

The Pahrump Valley Times reports that Cherie Tilley, a Spring Creek resident with a professional background in mining, will seek the Republican Senate nominatoin to challenge Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid. He is going to run on mining issues, especially exploitation of radionuclides, which is like raw uranium. He will also campaign on stronger protection of national borders, school vouchers, making government smaller, balancing the budget and supporting Bush administration policies on development of oil, gas, coal, geothermal and nuclear energy.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:04 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

Federal House and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, who had previously said he was uninterested in running for the Senate, is reported by the St. Petersburg Times to be "poised to enter the wide open race to replace U.S. Sen. Bob Graham." He had been urged by the White House (aka Karl Rove) to enter but was presumed to be keeping his political powder dry for a run at the Governor's mansion in 2006. GOP strategist and lobbyist J.M. Stipavovich said Martinez is "calling people all over Florida and telling them he is entering the Senate race at the behest of the White House." While he would have to catch up to other Republicans in terms of organization and fundraising, he is expected to quickly become the front-runner because the Cuban-born lawyer will attract Hispanic voters, has a national profile and will probably have the backing of President Bush.
The paper reports that as "the former president of Florida's trial lawyers association, he could be well positioned to raise money from a group that usually bankrolls Democrats," although that seems highly unlikely. Other Republicans in the race include state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, conservative activist and lawyer Larry Klayman, former Rep. Bill McCollum, Pinellas County Commissioner Barbara Sheen Toddstate and state Senator Dan Webster. Rep. Katherine Harris is also considering a run although it is widely presumed that the White House does not want her name on the ballot, energizing Democrats nationally with memories of the legal battles that ended the 2000 election. Stipanovich, identified as a "close Harris ally" said "The timing is certainly interesting. Mel had indicated he was not interested in the race before. A lot of people didn't think he was going anywhere. Maybe it's just an odd coincidence."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:35 PM |

Washington Governor 2004

The Seattle Post Intelligencer reports that Attorney General Christine Gregoire, a candidate for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination next year, leads the race in terms of fundraising. continues to lead the money-raising race for next year's gubernatorial election. By the end of October, Gregoire reported raising $743,588, well ahead of fellow Democrats King County Executive Ron Sims ($283,434) and former Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge (a mere $10,448). Despite the sizeable fundraising advantage, her opponents are not giving up. Talmadge's spokesman Jean Hermanson said "We are not deterred. ... We do have some strategies."
Earlier this week, the likely Republican nominee, state Senator Dino Rossi said it will take at least $5 million to run for governor (the Post Intelligencer said Rossi says it will take $4-6 million). Rossi, who only recently announced his candidacy, claims to have raised $132,500 in one week and said he expects to soon match Gregorie's fundraising. Rossi will try to become the first Republican elected governor in Washington in 20 years. Thus far, his only Repubican competition is Tacoma-Pierce County Health Director Federico Cruz, who has raised $36,170.
The Post Intelligencer noted that Rossi and Gregorie will not be able to raise money beginning in mid-December "because state law prohibits fund raising within 30 days of the Legislature's session, scheduled to run from mid-January to mid-March." To get his name out in the public, Rossi is beginning a 17-city, cross-state tour that will end in late December.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:59 PM |

Wednesday, November 12, 2003

Light posting

Until at least Friday evening, but probably through to Monday.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:17 PM |

New York Governor 2006

The AP is reporting that New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who has spent recent years waging war on white collar crime, said today he is interested in becoming the state's governor although he is not yet ready to make an announcement. In an interview with the wire service, Spitzer said "matter-of-factly" he would like to be governor and added "I've never denied that I'd like to be governor." He is also preparing for an eventual run: he has a Spitzer 2006 committee formed and he hopes to raise $2 million for it at a fundraising lunch in December. The AP noted that recently Spitzer has "stepped up criticism of Republican Gov. George Pataki's administration." However, he said a formal decision will not be made until late 2004.
The AP also reported other possible Democratic candidates could include Senator Charles Schumer and former federal Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo has already once sought the Democratic nomination for governor, but dropped out of that race against New York state Comptroller H. Carl McCall in 2002.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:50 PM |

Democratic veep/administration watch

According to the Associated Press, Senator Bob Graham (D, FL), who last month withdrew from the race to become the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, has approached many of the remaining candidates about the possibility of either joining their administration or becoming their running mate. Graham has often been mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate in 2004. His name was also mentioned in 1988, 1992 and 2000, but was ultimately always passed over.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:40 PM |

Nevada Senate 2004

The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that after making several visits to Washington and being in contact with the National Republican Senatorial Campaign and White House strategy Karl Rove, two-term Nevada Treasurer Brian Krolicki has announced he has set up an exploratory committee to run for the Republican Senate nomination to face Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid (D). While he qualified his comments with a a lot of ifs, Krolicki is trying to determine if he could run a viable campaign.
While Reid is often considered vulnerable -- he barely held onto his seat in 1998 -- the has numerous advantages over Krolicki: he has already raised $3.7 million of the $10 million he hopes to raise and has the endorsement of many Nevada Republicans including Reid had already raised $3.7 million, including MGM Mirage Chairman Terrence Lanni, Clark County Sheriff Bill Young, Reno Mayor Bob Cashell and Frank Fahrenkopf, a former Nevada GOP chairman (and current chairman of the American Gaming Association). Earlier this year, Rep. Jim Gibbins (R), who was considering a run for the Senate and was courted by the NRSC, decided instead to seek re-election to the House.µ

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:59 PM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

Last week, the Bobby Jindal (R) campaign announced the printing and distribution of 1000 "Proud to be a Bobbycrat -- Democrats for Bobby Jindal" bumper stickers. Prominent Bobbycrats include "New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee [considered to be the most important sheriff endorsement in the state], Jennings State Representative Dan “Blade” Morrish, Arabi State Representative Kenneth Odinet, Town of Vinton Mayor David Riggins , Town of Sterlington Mayor Clifford Bullock , Calcasieu Sheriff Beth Lundy, New Orleans Recorder of Mortgages Desiree Charbonnet and Shreveport Business Leader and Community Benefactor Virginia Shehee."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:07 AM |

Tuesday, November 11, 2003

California Congress 2004

The Los Angeles Times reported yesterday that former US Representative and Califorina Attorney General Dan Lungren will seek the Republican nomination in the 3rd Congressional District in near Sacramento. Rep. Doug Ose (R) is not seeking re-election next year. The paper calls the primary a "who's-more-conservative?" contest as Lungren faces state Senator Rico Oller. The California Healthcare PAC has already endorsed Lungren..

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:32 PM |

Minnesota Senate 2008

It may be five years away but comedian and author Al Franken has said he is considering returning to the state to be able to challenge Republican Senator Norm Coleman in 2008. Coleman beat former Vice President Walter Mondale is a closely contested election last November after Senator Paul Wellstone (D) died during the campaign in a plane crash. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Fra nken , a former writer and actor on Saturday Night Live, said "I don't know if I would be the best candidate but I do want to get that I'm the New York Jew who was actually raised in Minnesota." Coleman responded to the idea that Franken might run against him with no comment because "I don't do comedy.""

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:21 AM |

Kerry hires liberal Massachusetts strategist as new campaign manager

The Washington Times reports that John Kerry, who had earlier dumped camapign manager Jim Jordan (inviting him to take another position with the campaign) has hired Mary Beth Cahill to manage his Democratic presidential nomination bid. Kerry described Cahill, a veteran of campaigns for Senator Ted Kennedy, Rep. Barney Frank and former Governor Michael Dukakis (who ran an unsuccessful presidential bid against Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988) as "an accomplished leader for Democrats and progressive causes." Cahill has also worked for President Bill Clinton and Emily's List, a pro-abortion political action committee. Kerry's campaign is languishing in single-digit support in many states and he is behind Howard Dean in neighbouring New Hampshire by as much as 14%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:09 AM |

California Senate 2004 II

The New York Times says that the Republicans will have great difficulty toppling Senator Barbara Boxer (D) who is almost always considered vulnerable by Republicans. Boxer has raised more than $4 million already and is the darling of liberal activist groups. Arnold Schwarzenegger's gubernatorial victory last month notwithstanding, a prominent Republican has yet to step forward to challenge her. Furthermore, the Times says Schwarzenegger "has shown little interest in expending his new political capital on [fighting] Ms. Boxer, apparently in no small part because she refrained from criticizing him when reports of sexual misconduct dominated the closing days of his campaign." Rob Stutzman, the governor-elect's communications director, said "[Schwarzenegger] is focused on uniting California and governing." The Times seems to dismiss the possibility of Rep. David Dreier running for the GOP Senate nomination and notes that former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan (RINO) has accepted a position in the Schwarzenegger cabinet. The paper mentions as the kind of candidate the governor-elect could actively campaign for is his friend, advisor and former Governor Pete Wilson (semi RINO), who has not indicated an interest in the Senate race. Hoover Institution research fellow and former Wilson speechwriter Bill Whalen told the paper that with the exception of Schwarzenegger's candidacy, the GOP are not in a position to run serious statewide campaigns.s

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:57 AM |

Endorsement (wait) watch

Democrats will have to wait to see who will get the most important and potentially lucrative union endorsement, that of the AFL-CIO. The Associated Press reports that AFL-CIO President John Sweeney is waiting to see what Democrat will be most likely to defeat President George W. Bush, whose administration Sweeney calls "anti-worker, anti-union and anti-progress." The AFL-CIO has budgeted $35 million for the 2004 campaign, down from $42 million in 2000. Some labour leaders are trying to get the union's election commitment up to $45 million.
Rep. Dick Gephardt leads the Democratic field with 21 union endorsements, representing 5 million members, but last week former Vermont Governor Howard Dean snagged the endorsement of the AFL-CIO's two largest unions, the 1.6 million-member Service Employees International Union and the 1.5 million-member American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.
Sweeney says "I just want to make sure that we have the strongest candidate who can win and I think this process that we're going through is going to give us that candidate ... We will then do our damnedest to get that candidate elected." A cynic might say that Sweeney and his organization are waiting to see who becomes the front-runner before announcing their decision.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:49 AM |

California Senate 2004

The Associated Press reported on the weekend that with a December 5 deadline looming for candidates to file for the March primary, only three relatively unknown Republicans have come forward to the opportunity to challenge two-term Senator Barbara Boxer (D), one of the Senate's most liberal members. Recently, she played the lead in fighting the ban on partial-birth abortion.
The thus-far announced Republicans include former Los Altos mayor Toni Casey, former federal Treasurer Rosario Marin and state Assemblyman Tony Strickland. Former Secretary of State Bill Jones is also considering a run but said he would forgo the campaign if Rep. David Dreier, who recently gained natioanl attention as the most visible Arnold Schwarzenegger strategist and spokesman, decides to toss his hat in the ring. If he does, Jones said he will not run.
Dreier, a generally conservative Congressman, is facing intense pressure from both inside and outside the state -- including the National Republican Senatorial Committee and possibly the White House -- to challenge Boxer. Boxer is viewed as more vulnerable than she was six months ago with a recent Field Poll showing her re-elect numbers under 50% and pundits talking about the changing political landscape in California following Arnold Schwarzenegger's recall victory. Dreier is considered the best chance of defeating Boxer but the AP story says that with the power he holds as a top advisor to soon-to-be Governor Schwarzenegger and as chair of the House Rules Committee, "many observers expect he will opt out of the race."
Also mentioned is Rep. Darrell Issa, a conservative who funded the recall petition campaign, although a number of GOP strategists say he may be too conservative to run statewide in California. One such strategist, Allan Hoffenblum, said "The conventional wisdom is that if you want to win statewide, you need someone who is a moderate without much baggage." Before finally deciding over the summer not to run for governor himself, it was publicized that Issa had been involved in a number of crimes in the 1970s.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:05 AM |

Democrats shop for support in the Carolinas

The Washington Post reports that black preacher Al Sharpton tries to tone down his rhetoric and moderate his style to appeal to the more conservatively demeanoured South Carolina voters during a recent campaign swing during his run to capture the Democratic presidential nomination. What works in Brooklyn sometimes doesn't go over well in Orangerburg. During this trip to the state, his 19th since announcing he was running for president, Sharpton says This is what happens when city mouse goes to the country: He is not so much restrained as learning a different language. By now -- his 19th trip to South Carolina -- Sharpton says he is beginning to understand his hosts: "conservative in their personal ethics, open pride at being part of hardworking Christian America." He talks about how singer James Brown's father worked for the late Senator Strom Thurmond. He doesn't comment on Thurmond's civil rights record, the Confederate flag or Trent Lott. "In New York they wouldn't even understand that," Sharpton says about what the Post calls "the complicated nature of southern race relations." Of course, there is no Tawana Brawley in South Carolina and the locals are unfamilar with whom she might be. Sharpton is running the respectable single digits tied with Howard Dean in the state but behind General Wesley Clark and senators John Edwards and Joseph Lieberman. He is expected to do well with the large minority vote in the state in the February 3 primary.
Meanwhile, the Raleigh News & Record reports that Senator John Edwards was in his home and neighbouring states to reach out to black voters. He addressed a Raleigh rally sponsored by the North Carolina African Americans for Edwards Committee. In his first run for elected office in 1998, blacks voted 90% for Edwards and made up one-fifth of those who voted in the Senate contest. He will begin sending buses of African-American North Carolinians next month to South Carolina to campaign with him.
The Conservative Committee for Justice is taking advantage of Edwards' eagerness to reach out to the black community by running ads attacking the senator for opposing one of President George W. Bush's judicial appointments, California Supreme Court Justice Janice Rogers Brown. Edwards countered by proclaiming that he would "fight for judges who will fight for our civil rights laws." In Raleigh, Edwards also appeared with two prominent black politicians, state Auditor Ralph Campbell and Durham Mayor Bill Bell.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:49 AM |

Louisiana Governor 2004

The New Orleans Times-Picayune endorsed Republican Bobby Jindal. (No link available.)

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:24 AM |

GOP Presidential nomination 2008

With rumours swirling that New York Governor George Pataki might run against Senator Hillary Clinton (D) in 2006, Newsday reports that Pataki might have his eye on a bigger prize: the presidency. The evidence: he is on national television talk shows defending the war in Iraq (it is unusual that a governor would take on the role as foreign policy spokesman but Pataki is the governor of New York, after all), raising his profile and making connections, and doing the meet-and-greet in Iowa, one of two states that have ambitious politicians regularly inflicted upon it. (The other, of course, is New Hampshire.) Recently Pataki addressed the Iowa Republican Party's annual fundraising dinner. Shortly, he will go to Washington to address GOPAC, a political action committee began by Newt Gingrich. Scott Reed, a GOP strategist who managed Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign, said "Right now, if you look at the field, it's pretty thin, a couple of senators and a couple of governors. Pataki has a huge financial base that nobody else can compete with." The field may not be as thin as Reed believes and Pataki will have significant obstacles to overcome, mostly proving that he is not a RINO. Newsday says "He would have to recalibrate his image as a liberal Republican who has embraced unions, gun control, gays and increased government spending." Furthermore, the paper says he may have to compete with another liberal New York Republican, one with much greater stature: former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:23 AM |

Maryland Senate 2004

The Washington Times reports that Maryland state Senator E.J. Pipkin is running an uphill battle against incumbent US Senator Barbara Mikulski (D), a 27-year veteran of Washington politics and a municipal powerhouse in Baltimore before that. Pipkin himself recognizes the difficulties and pokes fun at his lack of brand-name recognition; he jokes that many voters ask him "Who ... are you?" Pipkin announced in October that he would seek the Republican Senate nomination and he was wooed by Maryland Republican Party chairman John Kane after businessman Josh Rales decided not to run. Most political observers would agree with Josh White, executive director of the Maryland Democratic Party, who said "There is no scenario where E.J. Pipkin can defeat Barbara Mikulski." The Times reports that a recent Annapolis-based Gonzales Research and Marketing poll found that 64% of voters approved of the job Mikulski is doing with just 13% disapproving. In 1992 and 1998, she won re-election with 71%.
Pipkin, 46, first got involved in politics fighting industry and then-Governor Parris N. Glendening when he sided with environmentalist over East Shore developments. He says he was a Democrat until the 1992 Democratic National Convention in New York (the one that formally nominated Bill Clinton as the party's candidate) and Pipkin discovered that "At the end of that convention, I decided the Democratic Party had left me behind," particularly on economic issues. Not that he was moved over all that much. Democratic state Senator John C. Astle of Anne sits on the Finance Committee with Pipkin and said he acts like a centrist Democrat and Senate Minority Leader J. Lowell Stoltzfus said Pipkin is a fiscal conservative but a social moderate. That may be a winning formula in a state where registered Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:12 AM |

South Carolina Senate 2004

The Greenville News reported Sunday that former governor David Beasley, who lost his re-election bid in 1998, is seriously considering running for the Republican Senate nomination next year. Thus far the Republicans have one serious candidate -- Rep. Jim DeMint -- in the race to replace retiring Senator Ernest Hollings (D), who has held the seat for 37 years. DeMint said Beasley would have an advantage in terms of name recognition if the former governor ran but that he, DeMint, was still confident he will be the GOP nominee. DeMint, who began his Senate campaign earlier this year has already locked in major endorsements and donors.
Beasley alienated some of his Republican base during his tenure as governor by removing the Confederate flag from the state capitol (the Bubbas) and opposing video poker terminals (the businessmen). However, he otherwise had a record that would be approved of by most Republicans: he reduced property taxes and red tape, presided over enormous job and economic growth, changes in social assistance that saw a reduction in the welfare rolls and he signed pro-life and anti-crime legislation. Beasley, now 46 and working as a senior advisor to Merrill Lynch, admits to "PR errors" as governor but as the News reported "Beasley was never embraced by some old-line Republicans who were suspicious of his Democratic roots, irked by a perceived appearance -- to some -- of opportunism, and his unabashed Christian faith."
Beasley recently said, "I'd be doing the citizens of South Carolina a disservice if I don't give it serious evaluation," although he indicated that a campaign and term in the Senate would "not be an easy situation" for his family. He is considering a run, however, because an (unidentified) independent poll shows that Beasley leads GOP primary voters with 24% followed by former Lt. Governor Bob Peeler (who said last month he is not running) and DeMint and former Attorney General Charlie Condon, tied with 8%. Two other Republicans are in the race: Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:10 AM |

Monday, November 10, 2003

Illinois Senate 2004

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Maria Pappas, a veteran of Cook county politics, has said she will definitely seek the Democratic senatorial nomination to replace retiring Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald. The Sun-Times reports that polls show Pappas trails only state Comptroller Dan Hynes in the Democratic race. The paper also reports that she will take "white ethnic voters from Hynes, lakefront liberals from state Sen. Barack Obama and women from all the candidates." Other Democratic candidates include millionaire investor M. Blair Hull, former Chicago School Board President Gery Chico, health care executive Joyce Washington, radio personality Nancy Skinner, Metamora Mayor Matt O'Shea and retired coal miner Vic Roberts.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:01 PM |

Louisiana Senate 2004

Senator John Breaux (D) has tried to dispel rumours that he will not complete his term which expires next year if Democrat Kathleen Blanco wins the governorship this coming Saturday. The political rumour mill has Breaux resigning his seat so Blanco can appoint another Democrat -- Rep. Chris John -- to complete his term and begin the 2004 race with the advantage of incumbency. The Baton Rouge Advocate reports that a recent appearance on K Street, the HBO television drama about lobbyists, by Breaux's son John Jr., has re-ignited speculation that Breaux (Sr.) will start up a lobbying firm with his friend, retiring Republican senator Don Nickles of Oklahoma.
Rep. John is expected to run for the Senate if Breaux does not seek re-election. The leading Republican is expected to be Rep. David Vitter.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:56 PM |

California Senate 2004

In case the announcement that comedian Dennis Miller is going to host a talk-show on CNBC beginning in January did not end the rumours that he may seek the GOP senatorial nomination in the Golden State, the San Jose Mercury News reports that he is "not interested" in challenging Senator Barbara Boxer (D) next year. Not that Miller would have been much of Republican; he admits to being liberal on most issues: "I think really I am sort of a pragmatist. If two gay people want to get married, it's none of my business. I think there are too many guns. I think abortion, especially the ones late in the game, is a little weird, but it is everybody's choice. That's their business." He said he is conservative on the War on Terror, the liberation of Iraq and taxes.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:55 AM |

More than half the Democratic field drops out of DC primary

The Associated Press reported Friday that Senators John Edwards, John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman, Rep. Dick Gephardt and former General Wesley Clark have formally let the Washington D.C. Democratic party know that they will skip the January 13 primary contest there. The five all note that the primary will not chose delegates -- D.C. will use a February 14 caucus to do that -- but the mayor and D.C. Council had hoped that the early primary would increase the influence of its majority African-American population in the Democratic presidential nominating process. Tony Bullock, a spokesman for Mayor Anthony Williams said "We have been royally dissed by these five candidates." D.C. Councilman Jack Evans said "I find it disappointing that three actual residents would disrespect their home town and disrespect a majority African-American jurisdiction." The residents he mentions are the congressmen seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.
Remaining in the primary are Howard Dean, who is endorsed by "most of the 11 Democrats on the 13-member D.C. Council," Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), former Senator Carol Moseley-Braun (IL) and New York preacher Al Sharpton. Moseley-Braun and Sharpton are both black are considered front-runners in the meaningless primary.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:50 AM |

Missouri Congress 2004

The Associated Press reported last week that former state Rep. Zane Yates (R)announced he will run for the seat being vacated by Rep. Dick Gephardt (D) who is seeking his party's presidential nomination. The AP reports that Yates would become the "first Republican to hold the 3rd District post in more than a half century." Yates, 44, is now a St. Louis County family court commissioner.
If Yates gets the GOP nomination, he will face one of five declared Democratic candidates: state Rep. Joan Barry, state Rep. Russ Carnahan (son of the late Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan), St. Louis Circuit Clerk Mariano Favazza, Washington University associate dean for student services Mark Smith and state Senator Steve Stoll.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:38 AM |

John Kerry to consider opting out of matching funds

The Associated Press reports that Senator John Kerry (MA) may forgo public financing following Howard Dean's announcement Saturday that he will opt out of the federal system of matching funds. By not accepting matching funds -- the first $250 of any donation given by a contributor is matched dollar for dollar by federal taxpayers -- a candidate is not bound by the $45 million primary spending limits. Kerry said he will announce officially whether he is opting out or not in the next few days. At the same time he lamented that his fellow Democrat has "taken a very different road than Democrats have stood for as a matter of principle."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:30 AM |

States to skip primaries

The Associated Press reports that several states will forgo holding presidential primaries next year saying that the combination of the early media coronation of the front-runner and the bunching of so many primaries in early February make them meaningless exercises the state cannot afford. Some of the states not holding primaries are Kansas, Colorado and Utah — all of which have Republican-controlled legislatures. Democrats say these states are playing politics and preventing the Democratic candidates from getting some much-needed exposure. Republican legislatures in Arizona and Missouri also attempted to drop primaries or prevent their funding, but Democratic governors vetoed the measures.
However, not everyone considering forgoing the presidential primaries are Republicans. New Mexico, led by Democratic Governor Bill Richardson, dropped its primary in favour of party caucuses. The Democrats will hold their caucus February 3. Also, in Washington, Democratic Governor Gary Locke is considering dropping his state's 2004 Democratic primary as a way of saving money.
For whatever reason primaries are being dropped, they are often replaced with party caucuses, which Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin has problems with but about which he sees a positive side: it puts a premium on person-to-person politics over advertising-heavy, mass-marketed campaigns in numerous states simultaneously.
In some states, however, the parties are taking it upon themselves to ensure voters get a say in the eventual party nominee. In Utah, the state party is paying for the primary. As are South Carolina Democrats, a state which does not pay for primaries of either party.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:29 AM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

The Daily Oklahoman reports that former Oklahoma City mayor Kirk Humphreys, who resigned his post on October 31 in what is believed to be a precursor to running for the GOP nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Senator Don Nickles (R), received a warm welcome from Republicans in Washignton D.C. During a three day visit to the nation's capital, Humphreys met key conservative leaders and appears to have the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He also has the benefit of having both of the state's senators -- Nickles and Jim Inhofe (R) -- raise money for him. State Senator Mike Fair, who is seriously considering challenging Humphreys for the Republican nomination, sent a letter to the NRSC complaining about its support of a candidate before the primary is held. The winner of that primary is expected to face Rep. Brad Carsons, the leading candidate for the Democratic senatorial nomination.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:13 AM |

Indiana Governor 2004

The Indianapolis Star reports that with the announcement by Governor Joe Kernan (D) that he will seek his party's gubernatorial nomination next year, the 2004 gubernatorial contest "is shaping up to be the most competitive, hard-fought battle in years." Most political observers thought that former federal Office of Management and Budget chief and presumptive Republican nominee Mitch Daniels would recapture the statehouse for the GOP after more than a decade-and-a-half in the political wildnerness. The paper says Kernan's reconsideration in running -- he announced last December when he was the Lt. Governor that he would not seek the nomination -- "instantly rejuvenated a Democratic Party that feared its 16-year hold on the governor's office was slipping."
To make Kernan's way to nomination easier both former national party chairman Joe Andrew and state Senator Vi Simpson have ended their campaigns for the party nomination, leaving only "little-known Bloomington lawyer" Roy Graham challenging Kernan. Daniels faces conservative activist Eric Miller in next May's primary.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:13 AM |

The Iowa caucus

The Des Moines Register reports that according to a poll commissioned by the newspaper, Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) has regained the lead in Iowa, the site of the first presidential caucus. Gephardt leads former Vermont Governor Howard Dean 27%-21%. In July Dean led 24%-21%.
Currently, Senator John Kerry (MA) is in third with 15% followed by Senator John Edwards (NC) with 5%, Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT) who has 5%, former General Wesley Clark (4%), Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich (3%) and former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun and preacher Al Sharpton who are tied with 1% each. Lieberman and Clark announced last month that they are not contesting the Iowa caucus.
The poll also found that Gephardt is the top second choice among likely caucus participants, with 16% followed by Kerry (15%) and Dean (14%). The Register says that "The poll contains ample evidence that the race in Iowa remains fluid," especially considering that about 20% of caucus participants are still undecided and that "Among those who favor a particular candidate, three-fourths say they could still be persuaded to support another." Among those who say they will not change their minds, Dean leads with 28% followed by Kerry (22%) and Gephardt (20%). Dean supporters are also more likely to say they will definitely go to the January 19 caucus.
The poll of 501 likely Democratic caucus voters was conducted November 2-5 by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:11 AM |

Sunday, November 09, 2003

Democratic primary

On Fox News this morning, Brit Hume said that normally a Democratic insurgent can upset the establishment candidates and threaten to win the whole enchilada following a surprise victory in an early primary or caucus. Howard Dean was to be that insurgent but more than two months before the first caucus and primary he has made himself the favourite the win the Democratic presidential nomination. This past week Dean won two of the most important union endorsements: the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and the Service Employees International Union. He leads in many national and state-level polls. He leads in fundraising. And he just announced that he will not take federal matching funds which place limits on how much a candidate can spend in each state. Without those limitations, Dean can make concerted pitches at the last minute in key states if he has the money and all indications are he will. The Washington Post reports "Together these developments provide Dean an opening for a quick-kill strategy: winning Iowa and New Hampshire, developing substantial momentum, and unleashing superior money and manpower to prevent anyone from becoming a serious challenger." Hume said on Fox, that now someone else may become the insurgent, predicting that either Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) or Senator John Kerry (MA) are the most likely to fulfill that role while admitting that Dean's advantages seem too big to overcome.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:07 AM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The Los Angeles Times reports that Republican Bobby Jindal has not invited President George W. Bush to campaign with him in Louisiana despite the president's popularity there (one recent poll had it at 60%) because, the Times says, it would inflame black resentment and bolster the minority vote which helps Democrat Kathleen Blanco. The Economist reports this week that Jindal has not invited Bush because the president's campaigning there last year during the race between Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu and her GOP challenger Suzanne Haik Terrell, was thought to help the Democrats because it looked like "outsiders" were telling Louisianans how to vote.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:59 AM |

Parties have troubles recruiting star-name Senate candidates

In what has become an old but often repeated piece of political analysis, the Los Angeles Times reports that the Republicans are having troubles convincing their first choice -- and sometimes second choice -- candidates to run for the Senate, in particular to challenge what are considered vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The Times story has a twist: the recognition that Democrats are having their own troubles, especially in convincing incumbents not to retire and attracting star candidates to try to replace them. However, with the exception of a single sentence about Georgia's Democratic Senator Zell Miller, the first 999 words are about the GOP. Then the story notes the Democrats' trouble keeping southern senators (four have announced their retirements) and attracting star candidates, notably to replace Miller in the Peach State and for a challenger to Republican Senator Christopher 'Kit' Bond of Missouri, where Lt. Governor Joe Maxwell spurned requests to run.
National Republican Senatorial Committee first choices have said no to runs in Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, North Dakota, and Washington. Democrats have had trouble recruiting in Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina and South Carolina. Four Democrats have announced they will not seek re-election with a possible fifth, Senator John Breaux of Louisiana, to announce his intentions soon. Only one Republican, embattled Senator Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois, has announced he would not seek re-election. Certainly the inability to maintain incumbents is as much as a sign of the overall direction of the party has the inability to attract dynamic fresh faces.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:51 AM |

Sharpton gets black establishment backing

The Washingont Post reports that "Al Sharpton's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination has so far attracted little support from voters, but plenty of financial backing from a loosely knit coalition of wealthy African American media barons and impresarios." They include Robert L. Johnson, the Washington-based billionaire cable TV mogul, Cathy Hughes of Radio One Inc. and "hip-hop entrepreneurs" and rapper Sean "P. Diddy" Combs. The Post implies that without the black media industry's financing, Sharpton's campaign would have almost no money. Indeed, despite being in the cellar financially, Sharpton is third in one fundraising category: the percentage of campaign funds that have come from large donors (defined as giving at least $1,000 a single candidate). He has raised 82% of his funds through such donors compared to President Bush (84%) and fellow Democrat Senator John Edwards (83%), according to the Campaign Finance Institute.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:50 AM |

Saturday, November 08, 2003

South Carolina Democratic primary

An American Research Group poll finds that among South Carolina Democrats who say they will vote in next year's presidential primaries, Senator John Edwards of neighbouring North Carolina, has fallen to second behind former General Wesley Clark, 17%-10%. In recent surveys, Edwards was in the lead but he has dropped 6% since the last ARG poll. The Edwards strategy was to place in a respectable position in Iowa and New Hampshire and win South Carolina. For the first time, he looks beatable in the state.
Edwards and Clark are followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT) 8%, Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) and former governor Howard Dean (VT) 7%, and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (IL) and preacher Al Sharpton who each have 5%. Senator John Kerry (MA) has just 4%, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) has 1% and 36% are undecided. Lieberman has statistically significant leads in name recognition and favourability but the ARG release notes that he has not converted that advantage into ballot support. However, Lieberman's name recognition and favourability are higher among undecideds than among the sampling overall. Among undecideds, Dean and Clark have the worst favourability ratings, each under 8% and 6% respectively.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:08 PM |

Louisiana Governor 2003

The Lafayette Advertiser reports that according to the latest Louisiana Gannett poll Republican Bobby Jindal leads Democratic Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco 48%-43%, replicating results of a Verne Kennedy tracking poll earlier this week. The poll commissioned by the Gannett-owned papers based in Louisiana and conducted by the Washington D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., found that Jindal had a 53% favourable rating (21% unfavourable) compared to Blanco's 47%-25%. The usual gaps of blacks favouring the Democrat, men favouring the Republicans held true.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:58 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

The Greater Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel reports that Rep Katherine Harris (R), a rare Congressman with national name recognition because of her role as Florida's Secretary of State during the 2000 presidential election, is "seriously" considering running the Senate seat beign vacated by Senator Bob Graham (D) next year. In 1998, then a state senator, Harris beat incumbent secretary of state Sandra Mortham in the GOP primary and went on to win in the general election by almost 10%. In 2002, after gaining national noteriety after the Florida election debacle, she won a seat in the House of Represenatives. Even before winning in 2002, her name was mentioned as a possible Senate candidate in 2004. She has name recognition and that would be a fundraising advantage. She is the only state candidate who could raise money nationally. She appeals to social conservatives but has highlighted the environment and education as priority issues during her tenure in Washington, so she may be able to easily reach out to independent voters. Harris said that she is under intense pressure to run: "Everybody keeps telling me I need to seriously consider it ... My husband and I, we haven't really sat down seriously and talked about it."
The Palm Beach Post reports that Harris's candidacy privately has some Republicans worried. They think that if Harris is on the 2004 statewide ballot, it could energize Democrats and hurt the Bush presidential campaign in the Sunshine State.
The Miami Herald reports that Attorney General Charlie Crist may also be interested in the Republican nomination. Graham beat Crist in 1998 but he since twice won statewide elections. The Palm Beach Post also reported that "Graham's unexpected departure also spawned several other potential candidates -- State Sen. Walter 'Skip' Campbell, a Fort Lauderdale Democrat, and wealthy Republican Vern Buchanan, a Sarasota car dealer" to all already crowded field of candidates in both parties.
Republicans that have previously declared their candidacies include former Rep. Bill McCollum, state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, state Sen. Daniel Webster, Miami lawyer and Judicial Watch founder Larry Klayman and Pinellas County Commissioner Barbara Sheen Todd.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:49 PM |