Wednesday, December 31, 2003

South Carolina primary

An American Research Group survey shows the February 3 primary there shaping up as a four-way race with nearly 3 in 10 likely Democratic primary voters still undecided. Howard Dean led with 16% followed by retired General Wesley Clark and preacher Al Sharpton at 12% and Senator John Edwards from neighbouring North Carolina at 11%. Tied at 7% each were Senator Joseph Lieberman and Rep. Dick Gephardt and the rest trailing with 2% or less.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:02 PM |

Dean slips in NH polls

Howard Dean still has a commanding lead of almost 20 points but he has slipped nearly 10 points while Senator John Kerry (MA) and retired General Wesley Clark are both making moderate gains. According to an American Research Group survey of likely voters, Deans has 37%, followed by Kerry (18%), Clark (12%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (6%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (5%), Senator John Edwards (4%) and the rest with 2% of less. It is the first poll to indicate that the concentrated attacks of his fellow Democrats on Dean may be starting to yield results.
The AP reported that the survey results are "not necessarily good news for Kerry, whose campaign remains stalled and whose share of the New Hampshire poll went to 19 from 20" (according to the ARG poll -- compared to other recent polls, his 20 point showing is a small but significant gain of 4-7 points). It is also the first time that Clark has broken double digits in the Granite State and if he were to finish second there, that would 1) catapult him to the top of the heap for the primaries following New Hampshire and 2) probably knock Kerry out of the race entirely.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:34 PM |

Monday, December 29, 2003

Dean's people are ... his people, not Democrats

Howard Dean is saying that the Democrats are in trouble if he is not the party's nominee because his supporters will not vote "for a conventional Washington politician." Yesterday, Dean said "If I don't win the nomination, where do you think those million and a half people, half a million on the Internet, where do you think they're going to go?" While committed to endorsing the eventual Democratic candidate, Dean said he can't guarantee that his followers will join him supporting whoever the candidate is. (What political leader can?) This sounds a little like blackmail with 1.5 million voters or, put another way, if Dean isn't winning, he'll take his ball and go home. (By the way, is there any scrutiny of that 1.5 million supporters number anywhere in the press?).
Dean also said that despite his critics within the party who say that the Democrats are doomed next November if Dean becomes the nominee, he is the candidate to best beat Bush because of his tough-talking, populist campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:02 AM |

Veep watch

Senator John Edwards (NC), a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, told Fox News on Sunday that he is not running a smiley face campaign in order to be considered for the second slot on the ticket. Edwards, a first-term senator who said he will not seek re-election next year, was rumoured to be short-listed for the vice presidential nod in 2000 by Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore, hoping, apparently, to replicate the '92 model of two youngish, supposedly centrist, southerners. Edwards did not rule out a run as the veep nominee, however: "I'm absolutely not interested in being vice president." That phrase could be parsed Clintonianly to read that he is not interested in the vice presidential nomination right now.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:12 AM |

Tuesday, December 23, 2003

Florida Senate 2004

The Orlando Sentinel reports that Mel Martinez, who resigned from the federal cabinet earlier this month presumably to run for the GOP Senate nomination next year, has joined Akerman Senterfitt, a law firm. Martinez, who was a personal injury lawyer before going into politics, said "I've been close to the people with the firm going back to my days as a lawyer in Orlando ... But also they are fully aware that I may be busy in other areas next year." Martinez had denied any interest in running for the Senate until Senator Bob Graham (D) announced he would not seek re-election, presumably because he, Martinez, had his eye on the Florida governorship in 2006. But he seemed to be under tremendous pressure from the White House (aka Karl Rove) to run. A Hispanic who is seen as a moderate and having the backing of the White House is thought to be a nearly unstoppable candidate in the Sunshine State. However, in recent polls, he has not gotten the support expected among Republican voters.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:59 AM |

Nader ditches Greens

The Washington Post reports that consumer advocate Ralph Nader will not run under the Green Party banner next year but that he is still considering a run for the presidency as an independent. According to Ross Mirkarimi, who ran Nader's presidential campaign in California, Nader is trying to figure out how to "run the most serious campaign possible to unseat George Bush." Mirkarimi added "My understanding is that, if Nader runs, he does not want to run a mediocre campaign, and he is trying to assess the political and resource variables on how" to do that. Many Democrats still blame Nader's splitting of the liberal vote for putting President Bush in the White House in the first place and many assume that a return by Nader will guarantee Bush's re-election. Nader maintains that he did not siphon votes from the Democrats but brought new voters to the polls.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:49 AM |

Monday, December 22, 2003

Kansas Congressional

The Kansas City Star reports that Rep. Karen McCarthy (D) has announced she will not seek a sixth term. In a refreshing break with recent political tradition, McCarthy said she is leaving politics because, quite frankly, she just wants to. "Too often, I've put my career and helping others ahead of my own needs. I made sacrifices willingly; it was what I did best." McCarthy is perhaps most famous for falling down an escalator earlier this year and admitting the accident was the result of having too much to drink.
Thus far the race has attracted two candidates for each party's primary but the focus is on former two-term Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver (D), a minister first elected to office in 1991. Cleaver had said in recent weeks that he is interested in the race but that he would not challenge McCarthy.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:13 PM |

Veep watch

On ABC's This Week yesterday, Wesley Clark claimed that Democratic front-runner Howard Dean tried to avert a challenge from the retired general by offering him the vice presidential nomination. Of course, Clark has been known to make several, unsubstantiated wild claims. Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi denies Clark's account of conversations between the two camps that supposedly occured before Clark announced his candidacy.
Meanwhile, the Boston Globe reports that Dean will seek to shore up his foreign policy credentials by naming a vice presidential candidate with foreign policy credibility. The paper did not name any possible candidate(s) but noted Clark's claim from the day before.
The Miami Herald reports that Senator Bob Graham is campaigning for the vice presidential nomination although Graham's chief of staff Buddy Menn said ''The vice presidency is not an office you campaign for." Still, with friends, family and staff noting that Graham has too things that Dean does not -- foreign policy expertise and experience in Washington -- it sounds like he is indeed campaigning for the job. Menn said "Bob Graham would be for the Democratic nominee what Dick Cheney was for President Bush ... Bob Graham has extensive foreign policy expertise. He has eight years of executive management of a large state. He is versed in the processes of the Congress. He is viewed as a sage wise counselor who has sound judgment." The paper reports that thrice before Graham was on the short list for the veep nomination but was overlooked each time.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:34 PM |

Sunday, December 21, 2003

Gephardt elaborates on New Hampshire expectations

The Los Angeles times reports that Rep. Dick Gephardt, who is in a neck-and-neck fight for Iowa with former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, is said to be predicting a decent finish in New Hampshire, one week later. "Second or third. Maybe a close fourth ... It's hard to go through all the scenarios. There's too many. You'll know it when you see it." The paper said Gephardt's word's were a tacit admission that his campaign is not catching fire in the Granite State. A recent poll had him in fifth with just 3% support. Gephardt is putting his resources into the states in the February 3 primary. The (unarticulated) hope is that the combination of winning Iowa and having New Hampshire whittle down the candidates will leave him as one of a handful of candidates left standing by the February 3 primaries and caucuses.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:32 PM |

Saturday, December 20, 2003

Holiday posting

While I intend to post over the next two weeks while I'm on vacation, it is a vacation so posting will be light and irregular. But please do check in occasionally.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:02 AM |

Friday, December 19, 2003

North Dakota Governor 2004

State Rep. Merle Boucher, the House minority leader, will run for the Democratic Party gubernatorial nomination next year. Strangely, he did not notify party officials of his intention to run for the position. Boucher said "So often, candidates before they ever start their campaigns are handcuffed by internal party pressure." Also running for the nomination is Bismark businessman and former state Senator Joe Satrom. Republican Governor John Hoeven will be seeking re-election.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:58 PM |

New Hampshire primary

Senator John Kerry's poll numbers in New Hampshire have rebounded significantly and assuring him (if they hold) of a clear second place finish. After falling in the 10-13% area for the last month or so, he is now trailing Howard Dean by a more respectable but hardly inspiring 45%-20% according to the American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters. Behind Dean and Kerry were retired General Wesley Clark (8%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (6%), Rep Dick Gephardt (3%) and everyone else with 2% or less. 15% were undecided. The poll shows that while Kerry has improved his standing, Clark has dropped. Last month, Clark and Kerry were essentially tied for second while now he is battling Lieberman for third.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:57 AM |

Thursday, December 18, 2003

Florida Senate 2004

Former New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith (R) will announce in January he is running for the GOP Senate nomination in the Sunshine State. Smith who was briefly a GOP presidential candidate in 2000 before leaving the party for an abortive Independence Party run before returning to the Republican fold, lost the party's primary nomination in the Granite State to Rep. John Sununu. Smith moved to Sarasota earlier this year to sell real estate. Smith said "I'm going to run a campaign which I basically offer my credentials to the people of Florida, my seniority, my experience in the Senate."
Smith is joining a crowded field of candidates to replace retiring Senator Bob Graham. While most political observers consider Smith a longshot, if he won, he would become only the third person to represent (at least) two states in the Senate. The others were Senator James Shields who represented Illinois, Minnesota and Missouri between 1849 and 1879, and Senator Waitman Thomas Willey who served Virginia and West Virginia between 1861 and 1871.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:45 PM |

Wednesday, December 17, 2003

South Dakota Senate 2004

Former Rep. John Thune will not seek his old House seat being vacated by Rep. Bill Janklow (R) who was convicted earlier this month of manslaughter. The South Dakota Republican Party announced on their website that Thune will not run to replace Janklow but that he has yet to announce a decision on whether to challenge Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D). Political observers view this series of events as an indication that Thune will indeed agree to face Daschle.
According to The Hill, several Republicans are considering running for the House seat, including state Senator Larry Diedrich, former state Senator Barb Everist, former Sioux Falls Mayor Gary Hanson, one-time Thune aide Larry Russell and Bob Sahr, chairman of the Public Utilities Commission.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:26 PM |

Endorsement watch II

File this under the who really cares file. Pop star Madonna endorsed retired General Wesley Clark's bid to become the Democrat's presidential candidate. At least what she said passed for an endorsement: "As it stands right now, he's got my support."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:13 PM |

Presidential election 2004

The Christian Science Monitor says that the likely race between President Bush and probable Democratic presidential nominee Howard Dean will be closer than many believe. Or at least that is the impression it leaves with its non-commital Dean-is-not-as-liberal-as-everyone-thinks story. Dean will soon be moving to the centre as it seems that he has safely captured the nomination. CSM reports "analysts say" with Dean having such a lead in the polls and fundraising, that "it is not too soon for the former Vermont governor to shift toward the center and aim his sights solely on the president. In fact, such a move could have the effect of bringing in more Democratic primary supporters, beyond his hard-core liberal base." Near the end of the story, the CSM admits that Bush will have booming economy and the capture of Saddam Hussein "makes him [Bush] a tough act to beat." But the media can wish, can't they?

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:37 PM |

Endorsement watch

New Jersey Governor James McGreevey has indicated he will endorse Howard Dean and he is urging fellow Garden State Democrats to campaign for Dean. Earlier this week, Dean netted the endorsement of former Arizona Governor and Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:26 PM |

Louisiana Senate 2004

The Hill reports that Rep. David Vitter (R), a thus far unannounced candidate for retiring John Breaux's (D) Senate seat next year, is expecting to raise more than $5 million for his election campaign. At the last reporting period (September 30), Vitter had raised $1.5 million. He's most seriously challenger, Rep. Chris John (D), had raised a little more than half that.
Vitter is a three-term Congressman and a former state legislator whom most the state's GOP establishment has rallied around in the 2004 Senate contest. Former Rep. Bob Livingston is leading Vitter's fundraising efforts in both Washington and Louisiana. In Louisiana's electoral system, there are no primaries. All candidates, including, often, several from the same party, run in one election. If no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters go to a run-off and it is possible that both candidates are from the same party. While Vitter is not expected to have to compete for GOP votes, John will likely share the Democratic field with at least two other major candidates: Jim Bernhard, CEO of the Shaw Group Inc., and state Treasurer John Kennedy.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:22 PM |

Tuesday, December 16, 2003

Arizona primary

According to a Social Research Library of Northern Arizona University poll, Howard Dean leads in Arizona which holds its primary February 3. Dean has the support of 22% of 418 randomly selected Democrats voters compared to 12% for retired General Wesley Clark. The rest of the pack is in single digits: Senator Joseph Lieberman had 9% support, Senator John Kerry 8%, Rep. Dick Gephardt 7%, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun 2% and the others with 1% or less. Nearly one in four (39%) are undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:50 AM |

New Hampshire primary

According to a KRC Communications Research poll commissioned by the Boston Globe and WBZ-TV, Howard Dean now leads Senator John Kerry in New Hampshire 42%-19%, followed by retired General Wesley Clark with 13%. Nearly one in twelve respondents (8%) were undecided. Senator John Edwards had 7%, Senator Joseph Lieberman 5%, Rep. Dick Gephardt 3% and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton tied at 1% each.
When asked who would be the strongest Democrat to face President George W. Bush, 47% said Dean followed by Kerry (15%) and Clark (10%). Furthermore, 60% of respondents expect Dean to be the Democratic presidential nominee.
400 likely Democratic primary voters were polled December 10-11, just after Gore’s endorsement of Dean.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:43 AM |

Monday, December 15, 2003

South Dakota Senate 2004

The Associated Press reports that the wooing of former Rep. John Thune continues. National Republicans want Thune, who narrowly lost in 2002 to incumbent Senator Tim Johnson, to challenge Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. Thune is reportedly undecided among his possibilities: a run for the Senate against Daschle, trying to recapture his old Congressional seat which will be vacated by Rep. Bill Janklow when he faces sentencing in January on a manslaughter charge or sitting out the election cycle completely. Thune is also considering a eventual run for the governorship after foregoing the statehouse race last year in favour of challenging Johnson. Bill Richardson, a University of South Dakota political scientist, said Thune may be weighing which of the two contests would best position him for a gubernatorial bid in 2010.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:10 PM |

Louisiana Senate 2004

It is official that there will be a Louisiana Senate 2004 with the announcement by Senator John Breaux, who is invariably described as a centrist Democrat, that he will not seek re-election next year. The retirement sets up a competitive race that Democrats would have easily if Breaux had ran again. This puts not only the Louisiana Senate seat up for grabs but makes it more difficult for Democrats elsewhere as money and other resources (campaign stops by high profile national Democrats) will have to be used to defend the seat. While most political observers have treated Louisiana as a likely GOP pickup in the event of a Breaux retirement, Rod Dreher, a native of Louisiana, says in National Review Online's The Corner that the retirement presents the GOP with its third chance at winning state-wide office in three years. It should be noted that in the previous two cases, the Democrats won. The likely leading candidates for each party are Reps. Chris John (D) and David Vitter (R). Dreher suggests failed 2003 gubernatorial candidate Bobby Jindal (R) run. The Republicans have never won a Louisiana Senate race.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:04 PM |

Sunday, December 14, 2003

Endorsement watch

Rep. Elijah Cummings (D, MD), a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, has endorsed Howard Dean. The announcement came at the same time "more than a dozen" Georgia state and Atlanta municipal politicians backed Dean. State Rep. Nan Orrock said "We're the answer to the question of whether Howard Dean can campaign in the South ... This is the South. We're Southerners. We're for Howard Dean."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:36 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

State Senator Skip Campbell of Broward County dropped out of the Democratic Senate primary saying that he couldn't keep up in the money race. By the end of September (the last reporting period), Democratic competitors Rep. Peter Deutsch and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas has raised $3.3 million and $2 million respectively. Campbell said "I decided it's just not doable." Polls show former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor of Tampa way ahead of her fellow Democrats with Campbell not even registering, when he's mentioned by the pollsters at all.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:32 PM |

Roth, RIP

Former Senator William Roth (R, DE) died yesterday at the age of 82. A five-term senator, he was a friend of taxpayers, co-authoring the 1981 Kemp-Roth tax cuts, fighting the IRS and exposing wasteful spending.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:27 PM |

Georgia Senate 2004

The Atlanta Journal Constitution has a long article looking at the political career of Rep. Johnny Isakson, who is the front-runner for the Republican Senate nomination next year. Isakson has led recent polls with support greater than his three challengers (Rep. Mac Collins, former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain and Atlanta businessman Al Bartell) combined and he is leading despite the perception that he is a "moderate" Republican in this increasingly conservative state. The Journal Constitution reports "He has a record that is solidly conservative, but has been hounded by critics who say he is not conservative enough." The proof is in the numbers. While he is often said to be at odds with pro-lifers, he has an 81% life-time National Right to Life Committee rating. Nor is he "moderate" on other issues: the Chamber of Commerce gives him a 100% rating, he gets an "A" from the National Rifle Association and 96% rating from the American Conservative Union. The Republican Senate primary is July 22.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:22 PM |

Saturday, December 13, 2003

Endorsements

Rep. Jim Clyburn, probably the most influential and important black politician in South Carolina has endorsed his colleague Rep. Dick Gephardt for the Democratic presidential nomination. Gephardt's camp hopes that the backing of Clyburn will give him an edge in the southern state, especially among the black population. Thus far no candidate has been able to break out in front (for long) of the others, with North Carolina Senator John Edwards, preacher Al Sharpton, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and retired General Wesley Clark all contending for victory there. Last month, former South Carolina Governor Jim Hodges endorsed Clark.
In New Hampshire, where Dean already enjoys a lead of at least 25 points, the state affiliate of the National Education Association backed the front-runner. The endorsement came the day after landing Al Gore's backing. Rhonda Jenness, who co-ordinated the NEA endorsement, said of Gore's decision: "I was thrilled, I was totally thrilled ... It makes me think we're doing the right thing for our members."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:01 AM |

New Hampshire polls

According to an American Research Group poll, if an election were held today, President George W. Bush would beat Howard Dean 57%-30% with 13% undecided.
found that Bush leads Dean, 57 percent to 30 percent, with about 13 percent undecided. Bush beats a generic Democrat 51%-34% with 15% undecided. This December ARG poll of 450 registered New Hampshire voters roughly replicates the results of its last presidential poll taken in September.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:54 AM |

Friday, December 12, 2003

Lieberman using Gore's endorsement of Dean

Senator Joseph Lieberman, who despite being Al Gore's running mate in 2000, was by-passed for his former running mate's endorsement this time around. On Tuesday, Gore backed Howard Dean. The New York Times reports Lieberman is hoping to cash in on the sympathy factor following what is being viewed as a betrayal. Even Dean fears a backlash with the endorsement as there is a sense in Gore failed to even communicate to Lieberman that Dean would be getting his support and not the Connecticut senator. Dean's advisors, according to the Times, "expressed concern that the perception of Mr. Gore's slight of Mr. Lieberman had tarnished the endorsement."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:04 PM |

And Harlem doesn't even have its own primary

Rep. Charles Rangel endorsed former General Wesley Clark. The endorsement was made in Harlem, where earlier this week former Vice President Al Gore made official his support of Howard Dean. Rangel made fun of Gore and Dean coming to Harlem to make the announcement. Rangel joked that Gore and Dean ended up in Harlem because they were lost, telling the audience, "Dean and Gore told the cabbie to 'Take us to Harvard,' and he dropped them off in Harlem instead." On Wednesday, Al Sharpton, the black preacher running who is also running for the party's presidential nomination, called the Dean-Gore Harlem event "drive-by campaigning." The media says the Harlem events illustrate the importance of the black vote for the eventual Democratic presidential candidate. New York City Councilman Bill Perkins said "The White House is through Harlem." Earlier this week, Perkins joined most of his council colleagues in backing Dean.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:57 PM |

Thursday, December 11, 2003

Endorsement watch

Former basketball star Charles Barkley signalled his support (scroll down to the December 8 item) for Democratic presidential aspirant Senator John Edwards (SC) earlier this week on Jesse Ventura's MSNBC program. Barkley, who has claimed he is a Republican and has said he would run for the GOP one day in his home state of Alabama, said "there's nobody in the Democratic party that really floats my boat except John Edwards." That is hardly a glowing endorsement but its being read that Barkley is supporting Edwards's candidacy.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:58 AM |

Pennsylvania Senate 2004

Democratic Rep. Joe Hoeffel has made official what was long suspected by announcing he will seek his party's Senate nomination. If he wins, he will likely face Senator Arlen Specter who is facing a strong primary threat from his right flank in the person of Rep. Pat Toomey. Hoeffel, a three-term Congressman, began his campaign by attacking Specter as too cozy with President Bush for supporting, for example, the administration's tax cuts. Seems like a rather dubious start to a Senate campaign.
Charlie Crystle, a software executive from Lancaster County, withdrew from the race earlier this week after state Democrats pressured him not to challenge Hoeffel. Governor Ed Rendell (D) and others said a primary could hurt the party's chances in November by being divisive and wasting resources in the months before-hand.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:14 AM |

Dean is trouble for House Democrats

Robert Moran, vice president of Republican consulting firm Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates, says that if Democrats nominate Howard Dean as their presidential candidate, quite a number of Democratic House Reps will be in trouble. In an email to National Review's Ramesh Ponnuru, Moran said "There are a number of Democratic House members in strong Bush or lean Bush seats. There are something like 28 Democrat House seats that were won by Bush with 51% of the vote or more.
A Dean debacle would almost certainly sink folks like Jim Matheson (UT-2),
Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL), Rodney Alexander (LA-5), Baron Hill (IN-9), John
Spratt (SC-5), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Dennis Moore (KS-3), Jim Marshall (GA-3)
and a raft of redistricted Texas Democrats." Moran says that because many of these endangered Democrats are in "Red States" (the states Bush won in 2000) where they will not benefit from several (if any) visits by the Democratic presidential candidate, they are further imperiled. But here Moran contradicts himself slightly; if Dean is too liberal and hurts his party's Congressional candidates, doesn't he help them by staying out of sight?

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:02 AM |

Wednesday, December 10, 2003

Kentucky Congress 2004

State Attorney General Ben Chandler (D) will run for the House of Representatives seat being vacated by the man who defeated him in November's gubernatorial contest. A special election will be held February 17 for former Rep. Ernie Fletcher's (R) seat that straddles Lexington and Frankfort. Two anonymous sources told the Associated Press that Chandler will be running; Chandler has a news conference scheduled for December 11. The Democrats chose their candidate December 15.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:48 PM |

South Dakota Senate/House 2004

The Aberdeen News reports that with the conviction of Rep. Bill Janklow (R), the state's US House and Senate seat picture has become murky. Governor Mike Rounds (R), who was elected last November, announced yesterday he would not seek either seat. That leaves former Rep. John Thune is the front-runner candidate for both positions. Unfortunately (and obviously) he can only run for one. Thune is not giving any indication of his intentions. Thune ran for the Senate last year after fulfilling his promise not to stay in the House for more than three terms and lost by a mere 524 votes to incumbent Senator Tim Johnson (D). It is unclear whether voters would hold it against Thune if he ran for his old House seat in apparent contradiction of his self-imposed term limit pledge, but most observers believe he would be a shoe-in for the House race. He would face Democrat Stephanie Herseth whom Janklow narrowly defeated last year. The filing deadline for the June 1 primary -- which will fill the House seat until November and decide the nominees for both parties for both the House and Senate races (confused yet) -- is April 6.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:57 PM |

Veep watch 2004

Fox News reports that former General Wesley Clark indicated Tuesday that he would consider naming Senator Hillary Clinton (D, NY) as his running mate if he became the Democratic presidential nominee. This seems a desperate attempt to get media attention on the same day that former vice president Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean. As Fox noted, however, Clinton has repeatedly vowed to complete her Senate term which does not expire until 2006.
Also, the National Post reported last week that Clark has indicated that he would consider New York Attorney General Elliott Spitzer as his running mate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:48 PM |

Nevada Senate 2004

Nevada state Controller Kathy Augustine is considering running for the GOP Senate nomination to challenge Senator Harry Reid (D). While she has hired a consulting firm and has met with the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, she will not announce her decision until early 2004. Augustine has not yet formed an exploratory committee to raise (and spend) funds. State Treasurer Brian Krolicki (R) has formed such a committee and anti same-sex marriage advocate Richard Ziser has already announced his candidacy. Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) has said he will announce his intentions next year. Also, Las Vegas realtor Jack Woodcock has said he is prepared to spend up to $500,000 of his own money to self-finance a campaign unless an elected official stepped up to the plate. It seems that Woodcock would not be running.
Whoever wins the nomination has an uphill fight. Reid was considered vulnerable if Rep. Jim Gibbons challenged him but the Deputy Minority Leader has superior name recognition and fundraising capabilities. He has already raised $5 million, half of what he hopes to have for the 2004 contest.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:44 PM |

Nader 2004

The Washington Times reported Monday that consumer advocate and former Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is considering another run, although he has not indicated whether it would be under the Green Party banner or as an independent. Nader has a New Jersey event to raise funds and gauge interest and he has formed a Nader 2004 Presidential Exploratory Committee. According to a USA Today/Gallup poll in October, 23% voters want Nader to run. That 23% are probably Republicans as Democrats discourage Nader from running, feeling that left-of-centre voters supporting his candidacy cost Al Gore the 2000 election.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:05 AM |

Lieberman thinks Florida's primary matters

Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT) says that he thinks the Democratic presidential nomination will not be known before the Florida primary on March 9. The Miami Herald reports "That day comes after Democrats in 29 other states and American Samoa have already voted. Delegate-heavy states such as California, Ohio, New York and Texas will vote March 2 -- the day many still believe will most likely whittle the field to one." First, one can quibble with the phrase "whittle the field to one" which is more accurately called "determining the winner." But Lieberman is counting on the significant Jewish population in the Miami area and resentment over the Florida recount and protracted court battles to win the state and propel him as one of the top two candidates. He said "For me, it would be a sweet act of poetic justice if I could clinch the nomination in Florida." It's not going to happen.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:00 AM |

Tuesday, December 09, 2003

Paul Simon, RIP

Former two-term Illinois Senator Paul Simon (D) died today at the age of 75, one day after having heart surgery. He mounted an unsuccessful campaign for his party's presidential nomination in 1988 but won only his home state. In 1996, he announced he would not seek re-election saying "I have an obligation to the people of Illinois, to the Senate and to myself to leave the Senate while I am still eager to serve, not after I tire of serving."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:38 PM |

When an endorsement is not just an endorsment

The New York Daily News says that Al Gore's endorsment of Howard Dean may be a sign that Gore is gearing up for a 2008 run against Senator Hillary Clinton. According to this conspiracy theory, Gore accepts the conventional wisdom that Dean can't beat President Bush and thus leaves the Democratic nomination wide open in 2008. Gore has $7 million leftover from his unsuccessful 2000 presidential campaign that can be used in a future campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:21 AM |

Endorsement watch

Howard Dean received the endorsements of 23 members of New York City council on Monday, including Speaker Gifford Miller. Miller wouldn't mind a friend in the White House if he decides to challenge poorly polling Mayor Michael Bloomberg in 2005. The New York Times points to inconsistencies with some of those endorsing Dean who support public access to politicians' records and campaign finance reform when Dean has sealed private files and opted out of federal matching funds. Miller must be dizzy with the spin he provided: "Howard Dean is the campaign finance candidate ... This is a guy who has actually put the public in public financing by getting a $77 contribution average. He only took himself out of the campaign financing system after the president did."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:16 AM |

California Senate 2004

The Associated Press reports that on December 6, Humboldt County Assistant District Attorney Tim Stoen has dropped out of the Senate race, one day after announcing he would seek the Republican senate nomination. Stoen said he wants to "fully focus" on prosecuting crime. Stoen is best known for working as a legal advisor in the 1970s to cult leader Jim Jones.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:08 AM |

Gore snubs own veep candidate

The Hartford Courant reports that "Al Gore's decision to support Howard Dean for president is a stinging personal and political setback" for Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT), the man Gore chose as his running mate in 2000. Lieberman told this morning's NBC "Today Show" he was a "surprised" because "Al Gore is endorsing somebody who has taken positions in this campaign that are diametrically opposite" to Gore's. (Perhaps this is because Gore is not as "moderate" has he has wanted Americans to believe.) Furthermore, Lieberman worried about Gore "supporting a candidate so fundamentally opposed to the transformation Bill Clinton worked for the Democratic party" in replacing its image a Michael Dukakis, George McGovern liberals to a new, more moderate Democrat party. The New York Post reports that the endorsement represents a Gore break from former President Bill Clinton. Most Clinton aides and allies have said that Dean is too far left for the good of the party.
Despite Lieberman's protests that Gore's endorsement of Dean hurts his own candidacy, most political observers think otherwise. Rich Killion, director of the Fitzwater Center for Communication in Rindge, N.H., said "This is a punch in the stomach. It's going to be hard for Lieberman to spin this into something positive."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:01 AM |

New Hampshire primary

The Associated Press reports that according to a WHDH-TV-sponsored Suffolk University poll of 400 New Hamsphire Democrats who say they are likely to vote in the primary, Howard Dean maintains a big lead over the rest of the Democratic pack. Dean has 35% follwed by Senator John Kerry (12%), retired General Wesley Clark (10%), Senator Joe Lieberman (6%) Rep. Rep. Dick Gephardt (5%); Senator John Edwards (5%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (3%), Al Sharpton (2%) and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (1%). Just more than one-fifth (21%) were undecided. David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, said "Dean’s lead is so large that the most important race right now is for second place." While neither the story nor Paleologos say so, a second place finish, and probably one that narrows the gap significantly, is a must for him to continue past the NH primary.
Asked who would be the best choice for vice president, 19% picked Clark and 13% picked Lieberman.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:45 AM |

South Dakota Senate 2004

With Rep. Bill Janklow's (R, SD) second-degree manslaughter conviction and subsequent announcement that he will resign his seat in January, Senator Tom Daschle (D, SD) may breath a sigh of relief. Former Rep. John Thune is said to be interested in running for his old seat. Last year, Thune was narrowly defeated by Senator Tim Johnson (D) and has been wooed by national and state Republicans to run again, this time to challenge Minority Leader Daschle who is considered vulnerable to a high profile candidate such as Thune. However, the whispers are that Thune will run for the House in a special election in early 2004.
Janklow, a former governor, resignation takes effect January 20, the day he will be sentenced. He faces up to 11 years in prison. House rules prevent people serving prison sentences of more than 2 years to serving in Congress. Janklow, a diabetic, was involved in a fatal automobile accident in the summer but claimed that low blood sugar was responsible for him missing a stop sign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:31 AM |

Is Dean a sure loser

Probably not. As Ramesh Ponnuru says in today's National Review Online column, "one can never totally count out a candidate who has the backing of one of the two major national parties." A lot can happen in 11 months and as Ponnuru says, Dean is not as liberal as he has been made out to be. While Dean is portrayed as a pacificist on Iraq, Ponnuru says his position is more nuanced, not that it will matter much; by next fall, the debate won't be about whether the war for Iraq was justified but what is the right policy on Iraq for the future. Furthermore, Dean is "right' on "hostility to deficits" and gun control -- or at least more to the right than many Democrats. Yes, Dean is on the left on taxes and trade, but overall, he is still probably a stronger candidate than any of the other eight. Ponnuru says Dean "really does express the views, priorities, and sentiments of his party better than the other candidates" and his candidacy is the one which may avert a replay of the 2000 scenario in which Democrats split votes with Ralph Nader. While the Republicans may want to have Dean nominated as the Democratic presidential candidates -- as has been repeated in the press more often than one can count -- so, too, might the Democrats.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:18 AM |

Monday, December 08, 2003

Endorsement watch

The Associated Press reports that it appears former vice president and 2000 presidential candidate Al Gore will endorse Howard Dean. An anonymous source has said that Gore will appear with Dean in Harlam to make the announcement and then they will fly to Iowa to campaign together. The endorsement will come six days short of Gore's December 15, 2002 announcement that he would not seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:34 PM |

We should know by January 19 who the Democratic candidate will be

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that political analyst Stuart Rothenberg says that former Vermont Governor Howard Dean is the clear favourite to win the Democratic presidential nomination, giving him an 80% chance of capturing the nomination. "It all comes down to Iowa," Rothenberg said. "If he wins there, he'll be tough to beat." But Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, says it's too early to assign to give the nomination to Dean because most Americans have not yet turned their attention to the primaries.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:03 AM |

Sunday, December 07, 2003

Frigging Kerry

Senator John Kerry (MA), a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, uttered a nasty word during his recent interview with Rolling Stone magazine. RS asked: "Did you feel you were blindsided by Dean's success?" Kerry responded, "Well, not blindsided. I mean, when I voted for the war, I voted for what I thought was best for the country. Did I expect Howard Dean to go off to the left and say, 'I'm against everything'? Sure. Did I expect George Bush to fuck it up as badly as he did? I don't think anybody did." Several political analysts have noted that the use of such profanity by a mainstream presidential candidate is unprecedented. Brookings Institution presidential scholar Stephen Hess said "It's so unnecessary ... In a way it's a kind of pandering [by Kerry] to a group he sees as hip . . . I think John Kerry is going to regret saying this."
The White House was indignant. On CNN's Late Edition today, Bush Chief of Staff Andrew Card said such language is "beneath John Kerry" and that "I'm very disappointed that he would use that kind of language." A spokesperson for Kerry responded to the White House response saying they should worry more about their policies than John Kerry's language.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:30 PM |

Saturday, December 06, 2003

Endorsement watch

Former Senator Paul Simon (D, IL) endorsed former Vermont Governor Howard Dean for the Democratic presidential nomination. Simon, famous for his wearing of bow ties, almost missed the Thursday announcemtn endorsing Dean due to heart troubles but spoke to reporters from his hospital bed. Simon will have bypass surgery Monday.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:03 PM |

Kerry spins positively

The Boston Globe reports that Senator John Kerry (MA) is not worried about the American Research Group poll that showed him trailing Howard Dean 45%-13%. In July, Kerry led 25%-19%. Kerry says he is waging a national campaign and that New Hampshire -- where he insists he will win -- is but one piece of the puzzle. Kerry said "I'm the only other campaign, besides Howard Dean, that has raised over $20 million ... I have offices and efforts going on in 18 different states, and we're ready to compete beyond New Hampshire, and I intend to do that." Still, it is hard to imagine anyone taking Kerry seriously if he loses New Hampshire by 30-plus points.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:56 PM |

Looking toward February 3

The New York Times reports that at least three Democrats -- Senators John Edwards and Joseph Lieberman and retired General Wesley Clark -- are hoping to do well enough on February 3 in states such as Arizona, Oklahoma and South Carolina, to seriously challenge Howard Dean for the Democratic presidential nomination. Each of the three hope to place "well enough in the seven Feb. 3 contests to be perceived as the winner that day." General Clark may be positioned the strongest. The Clark campaign has embarked on a $600,000-a-week advertising campaign in the February 3 primary states, an expense that can be maintained because Clark's campaign aides claim their candidate will raise $12 million this quarter. However, much depends on how the three hopefuls finish in New Hampshire; an extremely poor showing -- placement and percentage of the vote matter -- could finish off any realistic chances of competing.
The paper also notes that aides to Rep. Dick Gephardt said the hard-fought battle for Iowa, where he is in a neck-and-neck fight with Howard Dean, may break him financially, wrecking any chance he has to be a top-tier candidate after the Iowa caucus.
The February 3 primaries select 334 delegates of the 2,160 needed to win the nomination at the Boston Democratic convention in August.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:51 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

Federal HUD Secretary Mel Martinez is reported to be ready to resign his post in order to pursue the Republican Senate nomination. The Miami Herald reports that Martinez could resign as early as Monday and would immediately "open a campaign account and tap directly into the Bush family fundraising network in Florida." But a poll for the Herald and St. Petersburg Times finds that Rep. Katherine Harris, who has yet to declare her intentions, is the front-runner. She has 28% followed by former Rep. and 2000 GOP Senate candidate Bill McCollum (15%) and Martinez (11%). No one else more than 3% and 38% of Republican voters were undecided. It certainly will not help Martinez's standing with GOP voters that the Herald revealed that the HUD Secretary has donated thousands of dollars to Democrats over the years, including retiring Senator Bob Graham (FL), Senator Joe Biden (DE) and retiring Senator Fritz Hollings (SC).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:49 PM |

Schwarzenegger golden for Golden State GOP

The Los Angeles Times reports that following the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor, state Republicans have had an easier time raising money. Not only are traditional GOP donors giving more (such as ChevronTexaco) but the GOP now has cross-over appeal. The Times reports that the Republicans have "wooed one of the Democrats' largest donors, mortgage lender Ameriquest Capital Corp., and its principals, Roland and Dawn Arnall." The Arnalls and their company have given $2 million to the GOP this year even though between 2000 and 2002, "Democrats accounted for 89% of the $1.15 million" of their political giving. State Senator Don Perata (D) from Oakland said that the California GOP under Schwarzenegger "have died and gone to heaven."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:39 PM |

Washington state cancels their primary

The state House and Senate in Washington state cancelled its primary after Governor Gary Locke (D) argued for a one-time cancellation saying that the Republicans have decided their candidate and the Democrats will use utilitize a caucus to decide. The cancellation will save the state the $6 million expense.
Six other states have cancelled their 2004 presidential primaries: Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, North Dakota and Utah. The Republican legislatures of Arizona and Missouri voted to call off their primaries, but Democratic governors vetoed the bills.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:31 PM |

South Carolina primary on my mind

The latest Zogby International poll of 500 likely voters in South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary found no clear favourite but Howard Dean leading a bunch-up of candidates at the top. Dean has 11% followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT) and retired General Wesley Clark tied at 9% and Senator John Edwards (SC), Al Sharpton and Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) tied at 7%. Senator John Kerry (MA) has a mere 4%, followed by former Senator Carol Moseley Braun with 3% and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) with 0.3%. More than one in three respondents (37%) remain undecided and 5% supported someone else. Pollster John Zogby said the polling "underscores for me the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire as gatekeepers in this race ... Once the race takes shape after New Hampshire, the early winners will dominate and the early losers and non-contestants will more likely suffer."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:24 PM |

Friday, December 05, 2003

California Congress 2004

Former Rep. Bob Dornan has filed papers in order to challenge Rep. Dana Rohrbacher in the Republican primary. Both are fiscal and social conservatives, although the Los Angeles Times calls Dornan "an arch-convervative." Rohrbacher has held the 46th Congressional District (Huntington Beach near Orange County) since 1988.
Dornan represented L.A. and Santa Monica in the 1970s but lost in 1982 after his district was redrawn. In 1984, he was elected to a seat in Orange County, which he held until Loretta Sanchez beat him in 1996. He lost his bid to regain the seat in '98 and has hosted a radio talkshow in Virginia since. Dornan earned the name "Mouth of the House" with outrageous comments but as a former Air Force pilot and support for the military, was admiringly called "B-1 Bob" by friends. Rohrbacher says that Dornan's "negative" and "bygone" conservatism won't fly in the District.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:01 AM |

Thursday, December 04, 2003

California Senate 2004

Former California Secretary of State Bill Jones is about to jump into the Republican primary for the right to challenge Senator Barbara Boxer. He will file tomorrow, the last day to qualify for the March primary. Jones has the best name recognition among the four GOP hopefuls because of his 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary run and his close relationship with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Jones is a social and economic conservative who tries to downplay his opposition to abortion. But despite the fact that conservative state Assemblyman. Tony Strickland is running, Boxer strategist Roy Behr said Jones is "clearly ... among the most conservative of the candidates." That is California Democrat-speak for "this guy's too right-wing on abortion and the environment." The AP story says that Jones "will have to overcome his decision to switch his endorsement from George W. Bush to Arizona Sen. John McCain during the California presidential primary in 2000," although it is likely the president will overlook this faux pas in a vain effort to pick up the Golden State's Senate seat.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:59 PM |

Pennsylvania Senate 2004

President George W. Bush has made a campaign stop and fundraising pitch for liberal Republican Senator Arlen Specter, who has $10 million in the bank and 23 years experience behind him as he fends off a primary challenge from conservative Rep. Pat Toomey. The Washington Times reports that "Although Mr. Toomey might be more in line with Mr. Bush's conservative philosophy, a Toomey campaign aide said the president is simply 'following policy' by supporting the incumbent for the Pennsylvania Senate seat." Bush is supporting the incumbent despite Specter's opposition to a number of key Bush initiatives: the president's tax reduction package, a ban on human cloning, a partial birth abortion ban and school vouchers. The Specter campaign counters that they have voted with Bush more often than Toomey. In November, a Keystone Poll found Specter leading Toomey 49%-18%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:25 PM |

NH Democratic primary

According to an American Research Group poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean's lead over Senator John Kerry (MA) is growing, leading to serious doubts of whether Kerry will be able to sustain a campaign after the nation's first primary. Dean leads by a staggering 45%-13% with retired General Wesley Clark right behind with 11%. In single digits, Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT) and Rep. Dick Gephardt are tied with 5%, Senator John Edwards (NC) trails with 3% and the rest have 2% or less. 15% of respondents remain undecided. The sample included registered Democrats and undeclared but likely primary voters. Dean's numbers were slightly better in the second group, 46% compared to just 44% with Democrats.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:19 PM |

Wednesday, December 03, 2003

Thursday postings

If there are any political posts on December 4, they will not appear until the evening. Will definitely be back on Friday.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:40 PM |

Dean regains lead in Iowa

The AP reports that former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has re-captured the lead in Iowa. According to the latest Zogby International poll of 501 likely caucus participants, Dean leads Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) 26%-22%, followed way behind by Senator John Kerry (MA) with 9%, Senator John Edwards (NC) at 5% and former General Wesley Clark at 4%. The rest of the pack had 1% or less and 28% remain undecided. Iowa is thought to be a must-win for Gephardt because he is from neighbouring Missouri and he won the state when he ran for the Democratic nomination in 1988. But a loss for Dean may take some of the steam out of his campaign by showing Democratic voters he does not have widespread appeal in middle America. The caucus will be held January 19.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:40 AM |

Kentucky Senate 2004

Senator Jim Bunning (R, KY) has reached his goal of raising $3 million before the next filing deadline -- two months ahead of schedule. Rick Robinson, Bunting's finance chairman and campaign treasurer, said that they had no trouble raising the dough despite the fact they were forced to do so during the state's gubernatorial race."Our fund-raising shows that Jim is in the strongest position he has ever been politically in the state, and it shows that the Democrats are in disarray right now." The Democrats are having troubles attracting top-name candidates. In November, former state Attorney General Fred Cowan dropped out the Democratic primary, citing the GOP's gubernatorial success. Cowan said that the party was in a period of re-building.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:10 AM |

Florida Senate 2004

The St. Petersburg Times reports that Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, a candidate for the Democratic Senate nomination, is being criticized by union and seniors' groups because of his stand against free-trade opponents. The two groups say Penelas is responsible for what the paper called "abusive police treatment of protestors" at a hemispheric trade conference held in the city last month. Penelas stood by his officers: "I stand by the fine men and women who were out there, getting spit at, people throwing rocks at them, paint at them, bags full of manure. I stand by those folks." It is presumed that the criticism coming from the leadership of union and senior groups could end his campaign just as it is started. Tony Fransetta, president of the 125,000-member Alliance for Retired Americans group declared Penelas "has just lost the election."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:55 AM |

Tuesday, December 02, 2003

Georgia Senate 2004

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports that former Rome, GA bookstore owner George Anderson will run as a Libertarian for the US Senate seat currently held by retiring Senator Zell Miller (D). Anderson, who calls himself an ethics activist, said "After years of trying to monitor public officials, I'm going to campaign and try to get elected and make a difference." He expects to face at least one other (un-named) candidate for the nomination; the Libertarian Party holds its state convention Feb. 28.
Running for the Republican nomination are Reps. Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins and businessmen Al Bartell and Herman Cain. The only declared Democratic candidate thus far is state Senator Mary Squires.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:37 AM |

Kucinich targets his base

While most politicians go to malls and other places where there will be large crowds, Rep. Dennis Kucinich is taking his quest to become the Democratic presidential nominee to independent bookstores. Bringing his road show to the Main Street BookEnds book store in Warner, N.H., last week, Kucinich said "I'm unbought and unbossed. I'm nobody's boy" and that his "candidacy gives the people of this country a real alternative ... It's not trimming around the edges as some candidates would do." He says that by going to the local bookstore, he can make "a connection to community here."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:21 AM |

Louisiana Senate 2004

The Lafayette Advertiser reports that Senator John Breaux (D) is mum about his intentions next year but said he will make an official announcement December 15. It is widely assumed that Breaux will not seek re-election and if he doesn't run, the conventional wisdom is that Republicans will go all out to pick up the seat. Breaux told ABC's This Week on Sunday that Rep. Chris John, a conservative Democrat elected to the House in 1996, would likely run if Breaux bows out.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:20 AM |

Connecticut primary

The Boston Globe reported last week that Senator Joseph Lieberman hold a "comfortable" lead in his home state although the polling numbers would tell a different story. A Quinnipiac University poll of 509 Democrats from November 12-18, found that Lieberman leads former Vermont Governor Howard Dean 28%-23%, followed by Senator John Kerry (MA) with 14%, retired General Wesley Clark with 9% and Rep. Richard Gephardt (MO) with 8%. If Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY) is added to the mix, she leads with 36%, followed by Lieberman at 18%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:19 AM |

Monday, December 01, 2003

Illinois Senate 2004

The AP reports that Metamora mayor Matt O'Shea, a Republican running for the Democratic Senate nomination, has dropped out of the race and endorsed former Chicago School Board president Gery Chico. O'Shea was the only candidate from southern Illinois and Chico said O'Shea's support will help him outside of his Chicago base.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:29 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

The Associated Press is just reporting that former US Attorney General Janet Reno has endorsed former state education commissioner Betty Castor in the Democratic primary race to replace retiring Senator Bob Graham (D).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:09 PM |

Georgia Senate 2004

A Zogby International poll finds that Rep. John Isakson is the clear favourite in the Republican Senate primary to replace retiring Senator Zell Miller (D). Nearly one in four respondents -- 37% -- support Isakson, followed by Rep. Mac Collins (11%), businessman Al Bartell (4%) and businessman Herman Cain (3%). Pollster John Zogby said that despite the overwhelming lead Isakson enjoys, "the race is not only not over, it really hasn't even begun," pointing to the 45% of the 401 respondents who were undecided. Bartell and Cain both suffer from lack of name recognition (89% and 87% respectively) that may change once the campaign really gets underway. The poll was commissioned by the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
It is presumed that the winner of the GOP primary will go on to win the general election. The state has been trending Republican and the Democrats thus far have only one declared candidate, little-known state Senator Mary Squires.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:07 PM |

South Carolina Senate 2004

Inez Tenenbaum, state superintendent of education, it is generally assumed offers the Democrats their best chance to retain retiring Senator Ernest Hollings Senate seat next year. But as the Myrtle Beach Sun News reports that whether the "best chance" is enough. With the state trending Republican, the paper quotes Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon who says "In South Carolina in 2004, she's going to have an uphill fight ... But she is probably best suited to make that climb." That said, of the likely Republican opponents, only former Governor David Beasley is leading her in the polls and he is not even a declared candidate. The four declared Republicans are: Rep. Jim DeMint, former Attorney General Charlie Condon, Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride and Charleston real estate developer Thomas Ravenel. The paper reports that none of the four declared candidates have caught on with Republican voters and that DeMint, especially, has upset the base with his support of free trade.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:37 PM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

The Washington Times reports that likely GOP Senate candidate Kirk Humphreys, the former mayor of Oklahoma City, is leading likely Democratic candidate Rep. Brad Carsons, 41%-38%. Interestingly, Humphreys is running ahead in the urban centers of Tulsa and Oklahoma City but behind 40%-38% in rural areas. The CMA Strategies poll of 500 voters was commissioned by the Humphreys campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:23 AM |

Do primaries elect a candidate or a symbol?

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) is mired in low single digits, usually less than 3% anywhere polls are taken. I'm sorry, I should have identified Kucinich as a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, which is easy not to know because he is almost invisibile on the candidate detection radar screen. So it is not surprising that Kucinich is telling Democrats that a vote for him is not a wasted vote. He told retirees in Hanover, N.H. that by voting for him, "You have the potential to transform the debate" because he brings a "progressive" voice to the Democratic table. The question is then: do Democrats want to bring such a voice to the table or are they interested in using the primary for what it is intended to do, namely to choose the party's presidential nominee?

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:15 AM |