Sunday, February 29, 2004

Georgia Democratic primary

The popular analysis of the future of Senator John Edwards' campaign (see Maryland Democratic primary story below) requires, among other things, victories in states such as Georgia on Tuesday in order to continue his quest to become the Democratic presidential nominee. According to a Zogby International tracking poll (February 29), that is not going to happen. Senator John Kerry leads 45%-26%, followed by Al Sharpton (6%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%) with nearly one in five (19%) undecided. The tracking polls also show Kerry increasing his support while Edwards' numbers are levelling off. This despite the fact that according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 35% of Democrats in the state think that the national Democratic party is out of touch with Southern Democrats, a point that Senator Zell Miller (D, GA) has been making in recent years. Democrat Phil Drummond agrees with Miller. The Journal-Constitution quotes Drummond, a regular voter, who says the Democrats have "left people who stand for families and traditional Christian values behind ... Those are values I hold dear."
There are 86 delegates up for grabs.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:40 PM |

Maryland Democratic primary

The New York Times reports that time is quickly running out on Senator John Edwards to start winning some primaries and speculates -- it is not reporting -- that if he doesn't win several states on Tuesday, he will have to drop out of the race. The paper finds that the four best chances of Edwards besting Senator John Kerry to be Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota and Ohio. A recent SurveyUSA poll of 430 Maryland Democratic voters, however, shows Kerry with a 25-point lead: Kerry 54%, Edwards 29%, Al Sharpton 7%, others 6% and 4% undecided. If this is one of Edwards' four best chances to beat Kerry, I'd hate to see how the North Carolina senator will do elsewhere.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:57 PM |

Battleground Ohio

The Associated Press reports that with "traditional tossup states" such as Florida and Missouri beginning to lean more towards the Republicans and other tossups states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan moving toward the Democratic column, Ohio is the key swing state in 2004. Ohio has 20 electoral votes and the AP reminds readers that no Republican has ever won the presidency without the state. Recent polls show President George W. Bush's popularity declining and with job losses being blamed on free trade, the story paints a pretty bleak picture for the president's re-election campaign there.
Now, the bad economy the state is suffering currently is going to hurt Republicans. But this state can hardly be described as one that swings. Indeed, while it is on the list of states that the Democratics hope to bring to their side, in recent years Ohio has been trending Republican. David Broder explains in the Washington Post: "With the single exception of President Bill Clinton's reelection win in 1996, Ohio Democrats have gone zero-for-everything over the past 12 years. Republicans control the governorship and every other elected office in the executive branch, both U.S. Senate seats, 12 of 18 U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the legislature."
Broder reports that a recent poll shows Senator John Kerry leading Senator John Edwards 47%-26% with Cleveland's own Rep. Dennis Kucinich a non-factor and Al Sharpton not even on the ballot. However, Broder reports that "few think the senator from Massachusetts will win by that much, and some see a possibility of an upset." There are 160 delegates up for grabs in Ohio.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:57 PM |

Thursday, February 26, 2004

Georgia Democratic primary

A Zogby International poll of 395 Democratic primary voters found that Senator John Kerry leads Senator John Edwars 39%-23% followed by Al Sharpton (9%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%). More than one in five -- 21%) were undecided. Pollster John Zogby said that the large undecided number means it is a wide-open race. Kerry's campaign is lowering expectations by noting that Georgia is in Edwards' backyard.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:06 PM |

Endorsement watch

The New York Times endorses Senator John Kerry for the Democratic presidential nomination, five days before New York's primary. The paper says Kerry's electability is superseded by his experience. It says that Senator John Edwards may connect better with voters but that ultimately his scant political experience (six years as a senator) does not qualify someone to be president in the post-September 11 world. One the issues, especially foreign policy issues, Kerry, says the Times, "exudes maturity and depth." The paper admits that Kerry lacks charisma but that ultimately an understanding of the issues is more important. The editorial concludes: "Almost everyone who has been watching the Democratic campaign would love to merge Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards into one composite super-candidate, with Mr. Kerry's depth and Mr. Edwards's personal touch with the voters. In the television era, likability is extremely important. But this is a serious business, and Mr. Kerry, the more experienced and knowledgeable candidate, gets our endorsement."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:40 PM |

Endorsement watch/veep watch

The Boston Globe reports that Senator Bob Graham, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential nominating race last Fall, and who is angling to get short-listed again for the vice presidential slot (reportedly he was on the list in 2000, 1992 and perhaps 1988), will endorse front-running Senator John Kerry sometime next week. When asked by reporters if what he would do to support Kerry's campaign would include running as his veep, Graham said "Yes."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:09 AM |

Wednesday, February 25, 2004

Endorsement watch

Senator John Kerry presented a "parade" (Washington Post's description) of endorsement in Maryland including colleagues Paul S. Sarbanes and Barbara A. Mikulski, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, Reps. Chris Van Hollen, Steny H. Hoyer, Benjamin L. Cardin and C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger and several state and local officials. Senator John Edwards most prominent Maryland supporter, Rep. Albert R. Wynn, pointed out that there were no blacks among the list of Kerry backers: "Was Elijah [ Rep. Elijah E. Cummings] on the list? Was Jack [Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson] on the list? Leading African Americans are noticeably absent."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:08 PM |

Utah Democratic primary

With about 75% of the vote counted, Senator John Kerry leads Senator John Edwards 54%-30% followed by Dennis Kucinich 7% and various drop-outs with 0-4%. There will be 23 pledged delegates divided between Kerry and Edwards.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:08 AM |

Idaho Democratic primary

There are 18 pledged delegates and with about half counted (less than 1,000) Senator John Kerry leads Senator John Edwards 68%-20% followed by Howard Dean 9% (despite the fact he dropped out of the race last week).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:05 AM |

Tuesday, February 24, 2004

Tuesday's primaries

In the last primaries before the big March 2 primaries, Hawaii, Idaho and Utah went to the polls and early indications are that they overwhelmingly backed Senator John Kerry. More later.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:57 PM |

Nebraska Congress 2004

There are six candidates for the Republican Congressional nomination for the seat being vacated by 13-term Rep. Doug Bereuter (R). The Lincoln Journal Star characterized all six GOP contestants for the race to represent the 1st CD as "conservative" and most railed against an activist judiciary and in favour of a federal marriage amendment.
Bereuter has endorsed Speaker of the Nebraska legislature, Curt Bromm, whose pitch is based on electability and retaining the seat for the GOP. He is considered the front-runner against former Lincoln City Councilman Jeff Fortenberry, Greg Ruehle (executive vice president of the Nebraska Cattlemen), Robert Van Valkenburg, Andy Ringsmuth and Dan Manning.
The Democratic primary includes three candidates and Green Party candidate has also committed to the race.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:57 PM |

California Democratic primary

A Los Angeles Times poll of 560 likely Democratic primary voters (which includes Democrats and independents) finds Senator John Kerry leading Senator John Edwards 56%-24% followed by Rep. Dennis Kucinich (4%) and Al Sharpton (1%). The Times reports that "Kerry's support in the primary cuts across a broad range of demographic groups. He wins majorities of men, women, liberals, moderates, Latinos, union members and senior citizens, among others." Still, one-third of respondents say they could change their mind. There are 370 delegates up for grabs on March 2.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:48 PM |

Monday, February 23, 2004

Illinois Democratic primary

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that a Rasmussen Research poll conducted for the Daily Southtown of 578 likly Democratic voters found Senator John Kerry leading Senator John Edwards 61%-22% followed by Al Sharpton (7%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (3%). The primary will be held March 16.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:04 PM |

California Democratic primary

The Los Angeles Times reports that a Public Policy Institute of California poll completed February 16 found that Senator John Kerry leads Senator John Edwards 56%-10%. But the survey was conducted before the February 17 primary in Wisconsin which saw a surprisingly close race between Kerry and Edwards and which was followed by Howard Dean dropping out.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:41 PM |

Sunday, February 22, 2004

Veep watch

Chicago Sun-Times columnist Robert Novak says Democratic strategists like the idea of Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as Senator John Kerry's running-mate. Worried about GOP attacks on Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal," Kerry supporters say Bayh would add balance to the ticket. Novak says "Bayh is no conservative, earning a 100 percent liberal rating from the Americans for Democratic Action in 2001. However, his career American Conservative Union rating of 22 percent is high for a Democrat." Bayh is one of the few vice presidential candidates that would move a Republican state to the Democratic column. No Democrat has carried Indiana since 1964.
Novak says that Bayh 's liabilities in Democratic eyes include his vote for Bush's last round of tax cuts and that some feminists oppose Bayh on account of his vote in favour of a ban on partial-birth abortion. Novak reports that abortion advocates nixed the idea of Bayh running as the veep in 2000, but that Kerry dismisses such concerns.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:42 PM |

Nader in

Consumer activist and former presidential candidate announced today that he will run for the presidency as an independent candidate. In 2000, he garnered about 3 million votes as the Green Party candidate and Democrats blame him for President George W. Bush's victory. Nader will have a more difficult time qualifying for the ballot in all 50 states as an independent. He said he is running because there is little difference between Democrats and Republicans and that Washington has become "corporate occupied territory." Nader dismisses the notion that he is a spoiler saying that the only way to challenge the system is from within it.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:41 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

The St. Petersburg Times reports that Pinellas Commissioner Barbara Sheen Todd (R), a veteran of county politics, will not run for the party's Senate nomination. Although rumoured to be interested in a run, she has not taken part in candidates' meetings and was seldom mentioned in lists of possible candidates in the media or with pollsters. She had filed papers in October in order to raise money but Republican donors were not interested in her candidacy. Her campaign said pledges totaled $1.5 million but there were no actual contributions. Todd cited her late start, lack of fundraising and the entrance of a White House favourite (former U.S. Housing Secretary Mel Martinez) in the race as reasons for not taking the plunge herself. Todd said "I really wanted to run. But when I begin to assess all of the things going on, I determined it would be best not to, so I won't."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:34 PM |

Saturday, February 21, 2004

New York Senate 2004

Howard Mills, the deputy Republican leader in the state Assembly, will seek the GOP nomination to run against Senator Charles Schumer. Mills said that Schumer can be beaten because the one-term senator has not served in New York's interests: He's focused on press conferences on Sunday and not delivering on Monday." Schumer has almost $20 million in the bank, more than any other Senate candidate this year. Mills, an abortion-rights supporter, has just more than $100,000.
Manhattan socialite Gail Hilson, a liberal Republican, is no longer seen as the GOP favourite for the nomination because as "one GOP insider" said "she wouldn't sell in upstate areas."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:11 PM |

Friday, February 20, 2004

Nader to announce intentions on Sunday

Consumer activist and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader will announce on Sunday on Meet the Press whether he will run for president this year. Many Democrats are concerned that if he runs 2004 will be a repeat of 2000 in which Nader was blamed by some liberals for President George W. Bush's victory. Nader ran under the Green Party banner. He announced late last year that he would not run for the Green Party this time around but has not ruled out an independent run.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:27 PM |

Idaho Senate 2004

Senator Michael Crapo (R) has announced he will seek re-election and that he hopes to focus on eliminating the deficit. Crapo is assumed to be a shoe-in for this overwhelmingly Republican state and the Democrats still have no announced candidates. Crapo has $1.1 million on hand for his re-election campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:11 PM |

Thursday, February 19, 2004

Vermont Democratic primary

The AP reports that when Howard Dean was the clear front-runner, Senator John Edwards decided to not put his name on the primary ballot to ... I don't know, save the $2,000 registration fee. The only remaining candidates on the ballot will be Senator John Kerry and Rep. Dennis Kucinich along with Dean and retired General Wesley Clark who have both dropped out. At stake in the March 2 primary is 15 delegates. Kerry currently leads Edwards 618-192 -- about a quarter of the 2,162 delegates needed to win the nomination.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:43 PM |

Endorsement watch

The AFL-CIO endorsed Senator John Kerry for the Democratic presidential nomination. Comprised of 64 unions representing 13 million workers, he promised to put its full support behind Kerry in the Democratic nomination and presidential campaigns despite the fact that Kerry voted in 1993 for NAFTA. Teamsters President James P. Hoffa said Kerry has gotten better over the years: He might not be there yet, but I think the more he campaigns, the more he realizes this entire election is going to come down to jobs .. I think he's moving towards that. Everybody evolves." Earlier in the primaries, the AFL-CIO backed Howard Dean and they rescinded its endorsement before he formally withdrew yesterday.



Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:34 PM |

Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Kentucky Congress 2004

Last November, Rep. Ernie Fletcher won the governorship of Kentucky. The man he beat won a special election yesterday to take his old Congressional District. Former Attorney General Ben Chandler (D) beat state Senator Alice Forgy Kerr 55%-43%. It marked the first time Democrats won a Congressional special election since 1991.
The Democrats say the results portend trouble for the GOP in November. Rep. Robert T. Matsui (D, CA), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said "Ben Chandler's victory in Kentucky tonight should send a clear message to the arrogant Republican government in Washington that Americans are ready for a change." But it is unlikely that as goes Lexington, so goes the nation. This electoin was a one-on-one match-up in which one candidate (Chandler) had huge name recognition because of a gubernatorial race that ended just four months ago. Furthermore, come November, there will be Republican incumbents not open seats; it's always easier with an open seat. Lastly, both Democrats and Republicans will have candidates on the ballot at the presidential level and sometimes the gubernatorial or senate levels what could affect turnout; thus far, this generally helps the GOP.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:10 PM |

Wisconsin Democrati primary results/fallout

Senator John Kerry barely beat Senator John Edwards, "barely" being defined as 6% (40-34%). So, the Washington Post's take on this is that the coronation is postponed. Edwards' close result justifies him continuing his campaign, to see how he fares in one-on-one races in the March 2 (New York, Ohio, California, Georgia and more) and possibly March 9 (Florida, Texas) primaries.
Not surprisingly, Howard Dean, who finished with 17%, dropped out today, one day after vowing not to. It appears that $41 million and all the internet hype in the world can't buy one primary or caucus victory after 17 tries.
For the record, Rep. Dennis Kucinch had 3% and Al Sharpton had 2%. They both say they will stay in the primaries for the long haul.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:55 PM |

Monday, February 16, 2004

Wisconsin Democratic primary

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel endorsed Senator John Edwards for the Democratic presidential nomination saying the North Carolina politician is "the man who can take his party's common vision for the nation and convince voters that it offers the right course for America." The paper says that either Edwards or Senator John Kerry, the front-runner, would both present strong challenges to President George W. Bush but that Edwards, having been in the Senate for just six years, compared to Kerry's 20, would have less of a record to exploit. Plus, anyway, Edwards is just so nice: "Edwards is smart, engaging and upbeat, comfortable before any audience and often inspiring. Perhaps most intriguing of all, his optimistic campaign, free of attacks on his Democratic rivals, suggests something important about his character: Here is someone who seems to believe that the power of persuasion doesn't have to include excoriation and the politics of personal destruction."
The most recent polls in Wisconsin indicates that the Sentinel-Journal's plea to the independent-minded state voters to change the course of the primary is an uphill fight. According to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released today, Kerry leads Howard Dean 47%-23% followed by Edwards at 20%. Way behind are Rep. Dennis Kucinich (2%) and Al Sharpton (1%). Pollster John Zogby found that Kerry's electability is his greatest asset going into the primary tomorrow.
Dean has said he will re-evaluate his campaign to become the Democratic presidential nominee if he loses Wisconsin while Edwards says that he looks forward to the series of one-on-one races with Kerry. Ohio, California and New York (along with another half-dozen states) hold primaries March 2 and Texas and Florida hold them a week later.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:39 PM |

California Senate 2004

The liberal San Francisco Chronicle has endorsed the most conservative of the GOP candidates for the Republican nomination, former California Secretary of State Bill Jones. The paper brought particular attention to his pro-life views as it wondered whether his position on the issue made him "too conservative for California's electorate." But ultimately it his record of getting things done, earning the respect of his colleagues and the ability to present a stark contrast to the vision of Senator Barbara Boxer (D) that leads the paper to support him for the Republican nod. The paper says former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin responded to questions from the editorial board with "vague generalities" and former Los Altos Hills mayor Toni Casey lacks experience or being tested in statewide office. The primary is March 2.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:28 PM |

Sunday, February 15, 2004

Arkansas Governor 2006/Senate 2008 and beyond

The Charlotte Observer reports that despite claims by retired General Wesley Clark that his abortive run for the Democratic presidential nomination this time around would be his only forray into elected politics, his wife Gert Clark hinted he might be seen on the campaign trails again. Introducing her husband as he bowed out of the race, she said "Say goodbye to the Clarks in their early political career ... Someday we may be getting together again -- who knows?" There is now speculation that he might run in his home state of Arkansas for governor or senator in the future or may become "a candidate for vice president, perhaps in 2008 with New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:48 PM |

Texas Democratic primary

According to a SurveyUSA poll conducted February 8-10, Senator John Kerry is the clear favourite among likely Democratic primary voters in the Lone Star State. Kerry is supported by 47% of respondents followed by Senator John Edwards (17%), Howard Dean (16%), Wesley Clark -- who has since dropped out of the race -- (9%), others (8%) and just 4% undecided. Dean voters are most likely to say they are certain to vote in the primary reflecting a stronger base of support for his insurgent campaign, while Kerry's numbers are given a boost with his support among those who have yet to commit themselves to casting primary ballots. The primary is March 9.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:38 PM |

Saturday Democratic caucses

Senator John Kerry solidified his lead as the Democratic front-runner by winning caucuses in Nevada and Washington DC Saturday.
In Nevada, he won 63% followed by Howard Dean (17%), Senator John Edwards (10%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (7%) and Al Sharpton (1%). Kerry won with a smaller margin in DC with 47%, Sharpton (20%), Dean (17%), Edwards (10%), Kucinich (3%).
The Washington Post reports that following Kerry's wins in 14 of 16 primary and caucus contests, and after being "Trounced in the Valentine's Day voting, Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) and former Vermont governor Howard Dean were left pleading with Wisconsin's famously independent voters to keep the Democratic presidential race alive in Tuesday's primary here. Polls indicate another Kerry romp is brewing here, though."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:28 PM |

Saturday, February 14, 2004

Today's caucuses

With all eyes on Wisconsin to see how Howard Dean will do there, very little attention has been given to the fact that Washington DC and Nevada hold their Democratic caucuses today (February 14). Recall, also Dean won the meaningless Washington DC caucus in January, before Iowa. It will be interesting to see who wins later today -- and to see if it registers on the media's radar screen.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:38 AM |

Missouri Senate 2004

Focusing on President George W. Bush, Missouri Treasurer Nancy Farmer announced that she will seek the Democratic Senate nomination. The St. Louis Dispatch reports that she named her eventual opponent, Senator Christopher "Kit" Bond only twice and in one of those instances, "it was to point out that Bond had voted Bush's way '98 percent of the time'." Farmer, who first was elected to the state legislature in 1992 before a detour in municipal politics that eventually brought her to the deputy state treasurer and state treasurer positions, will run against Bush's support for deficit spending and opposition to same-sex marriage. While she says her life story and stands on the issues will win her a seat in the Senate, reports from the last filing period (December 31, 2003) show that Bond has raised $4.32 million compared to Farmer's $609,000 and change, indicating an uphill battle. However, in 2000, she beat the better financed Republican candidate for treasurer, Todd Graves.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:27 AM |

Friday, February 13, 2004

Kerry would beat Bush in New York

The Daily News reports that a Quinnipiac University poll shows that Senator John Kerry would beat President George W. Bush 88%-7%. The QU poll also shows that Democrats oppose the War in Iraq, are angry with Bush and that the election will be fought on domestic issues.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:11 PM |

Dean makes pitch to Kucinich supporters

Campaigning at the University of Wisconsin, Howard Dean pleads with Dennis Kucinich supporters to vote for him in Tuesday's primary. "If you think Dennis is the right person to vote for, then please vote for him, never settle for the lesser of two evils," he said. "But we are able to raise the money and I have an executive record that allows me to go after George Bush."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:06 PM |

Veep watch

The Washington Times reports that Virginia Governor Mark Warner (D) is on the shortlist of potential running mates for Senator John Kerry. Such speculation is fueled by the fact that a Virginia delegate introduced Warner earlier this week as "the next vice president" of the United States. Rumours also swirl that Senator Bob Graham (FL), Governor Michael Easley (NC) and Senator Mary Landrieu (LA) are also on such a list. For their part, the Kerry campaign denies there is any such list.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:04 PM |

Endorsement watch

One formal, one not so much so, for Senator John Kerry. Wesley Clark, who earlier this week dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, is expected to endorse Kerry later today. Also, Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle, while ostensibly neutral is appearing with Kerry at campaign events in the state and is "lavish" in his praise for the senator.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:17 AM |

Thursday, February 12, 2004

Nevada Senate 2004

With their prize candidate, Rep. Jim Gibbons, out of the race to challenge Senator Harry Reid (D), Republicans have been scrambling to find the best of the second tier of candidates. The best of that lot, state Treasurer Brian Krolicki, has just dropped out also. He said that it is unlikely any Republican can beat the Senate Minority Leader who already amassed a war chest of more than $6 million. Krolicki, who had formed an exploratory committee, said "The money issue will certainly be a large inhibitor in anyone making a successful run." Krolicki is reportedly interested in running for Congress in 2006 if Gibbons abandons the 2nd Congressional District for a gubernatorial run. If Gibbons stays put, Krolicki might run for governor or lieutenant governor himself.
Thus far the GOP has attracted only two candidates, neither of whom are taken seriously: Richard Ziser, who chaired the ballot initiative banning gay marriage in Nevada, and Ken Wegner, a disabled Persian Gulf War veteran. Also considering the run is Secretary of State Dean Heller and state Controller Kathy Augustine.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:20 AM |

Veep watch

The Boston Globe reports that despite what the excitement that many people feel for a Democratic ticket of the Senators John (Kerry and Edwards), it seems unlikely. People, by the way, is defined as political pundits, a rather small voting class indeed. The Globe says "interviews with both campaigns indicate a Kerry-Edwards ticket is unlikely, and advisers to both men lack the excitement for such a pairing that some voters feel."
The media often reports that the likely ticket will be the eventual nominee and one of his significant challengers. But there is no recent precedent to justify such predictions. In 2000, neither Al Gore or George W. Bush picked a primary opponent. They joined a long list of presidential candidates who eschewed former primary rivals: Republican Bob Dole in 1996 (admittedly Jack Kemp and Dole faced one another in the 1988 GOP primary but both lost to Vice President Bush), Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 and George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis in 1988.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:06 AM |

Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Wisconsin Democratic primary

Before Senator John Kerry's victories in Virginia and Tennesee yesterday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that according to poll of likely Democratic primary voters, Kerry is headed to another victory next Tuesday. The Journal Sentinel/WTMJ-TV-sponsored Market Shares Corp. poll found Kerry had the support of 45% followed by retired General and Democratic presidential race dropout Wesley Clark (13%), Howard Dean (12%) and Senator John Edwards (9%). About one in six respondents were undecided (17%).
Kerry has been assisted by several high-profile endorsements when he was backed by half of the state's Democratic Congressional delegation: Reps. Ron Kind and David Obey and Senator Herb Kohl.
The New York Times reports that Dean has re-started his television advertising campaign. The commercial says that Wisconsin voters should make up their own mind and not just follow the media's story line of Kerry as the inevitable nominee: "Now the media tells us the race is over and the Washington insiders have won. So, on Tuesday, Wisconsin can be a rubber stamp, or you can vote for real change."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:54 PM |

Dean favours Edwards over Kerry

The Associated Press reports that Howard Dean thinks that Senator John Edwards would be a better candidate in terms of electability than Senator John Kerry, the current Democratic frontrunner. Dean told CBS today that "My fear is that he [Kerry] actually won't be the strongest Democratic candidate." He told the AP that no matter who wins the nomination, he will support him. But he added that he considered Kerry the "lesser of two evils" in a race against President Bush. Hardly a great endorsement.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:30 PM |

Wisconsin poll numbers

No not the Democratic primary but the Senate and presidential races. The Milwaukee Sentinel-Journal and the Capital Times sponsored University of Wisconsin Survey Center poll of 502 Wisconsin resident found that a majority want Senator Russ Feingold (D) re-elected (52% re-elect, 26% want someone else, and 22% were undecided). Nearly a majority want someone other than President George W. Bush elected -- 49% compared to 42% who want to see him re-elected. Oddly, Bush's approval and disapproval ratings are inverse to those who say they want him defeated or re-elected: 54% favourable, 39% unfavourable. The poll was conducted January 27-February 4.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:49 AM |

Tuesday, February 10, 2004

Veep watch II/Clark out

The Associated Press has just reported that retired General Wesley Clark has dropped out of the race to become the Democratic presidential nominee. No sooner had he dropped out than his name was mentioned -- at least by the AP reporter -- as a vice presidential candidate: "New to politics, Clark may still have a future. At 59, he is young enough for another race and, with his military experience, he might fit on a wartime Democratic ticket." But with a string of poor finishes and one squeaker win in Oklahoma -- a state likely to go Republican in November -- one must ask what he brings to the ticket other than a chance for the Democrats to hold on to Arkansas.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:44 PM |

Tuesday primaries

The themes with tonight's two primaries (Viriginia and Tennessee) is that Senator John Kerry -- the Massachusetts liberal -- can win in the more conservative South and that the other candidates should now exit the race. The New York Times reported "The victories were Mr. Kerry's first in the South, and an important test of his national appeal." The Washington Post opened its story "Southern victories propel Kerry toward nomination", "The South climbed aboard John F. Kerry's bandwagon tonight, propelling him ever closer to what rivals and party leaders call a near lock on the nomination to face President Bush." The Los Angeles Times reports "Sen. John F. Kerry rolled up big victories today in Virginia and Tennessee, proving he can win Southern votes and putting pressure on his remaining rivals to clear the field to focus on the November race against President Bush."
In Virginia, Kerry won a majority of the vote (52%), followed by Senator John Edwards (27%), retired General Wesley K. Clark (9%), Howard Dean (7%), Al Sharpton (3%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%) and Senator Joseph Lieberman (1%). In Tennessee, the race was a bit closer: Kerry (41%), Edwards (27%), Clark (23%), Dean (4%) and Kucinich with 1% but behind dropped-out candidates Lieberman and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun.
With those results, New Mexico Governor and Democratic national convention chairman Bill Richardson, said the party needs to get behind Kerry. ""The time has come to rally around Senator Kerry ... He has won in every region of the country and we should unite behind him."
The Washington Post reported that Edwards may not have won either state but may have accomplished his secondary goal of clearly besting Clark for the position of becoming the sole challenger to Kerry. The Post goes to Donna Brazile, manager of Al Gore's presidential campaign in 2000 and an oft-quoted strategist on the Democratic campaign who poo-poohs the idea: "I don't see where he gets a new pool of voters to draw on."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:06 PM |

Dean in even if he doesn't win Wisconsin

Howard Dean has reversed himself on whether or not he will continue his campaign to become the Democratic presidential nominee if he loses Wisconsin's February 17 primary. Last week he said he was out if he did not win. But after his supporters urged him to stay, Dean said "I've just changed my mind," and added, "I don't think this is a responsible time to leave the playing field." While he has changed his mind about what happens if he doesn't win Wisconsin, he still says he is going to win the state. And yet ... he admits to needing a new strategy if he doesn't. "The truth now appears to be that we're going to have to find a way to stay in. We don't know what that's going to mean. Clearly, if we don't win Wisconsin there's going to be a real problem trying to run the kind of conventional campaign." Then again, he might change his mind before then.
Dean will have a more difficult go of it now that the 1.5 million member American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has rescinded its endorsement of him. The union, which the USA Today reports spends more money on political campaigns than any other union, said it wants to get behind the eventual Democratic nominee in order to defeat President George W. Bush. "We agree that the most important priority for America's working families is to defeat George W. Bush," AFSCME President Gerald McEntee said in a statement. "We will continue to work together to unify the Democratic Party to do just that."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:40 PM |

Veep watch

Writing at National Review Online, David Hogberg, a research analyst at the Iowa-based Public Interest Institute, says that rumours that Senator John Kerry is considering Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack as his running mate just don't make sense. Vilsack is in the middle of a budget battle which includes tax and spending increases and Vilsack's record on past budgets is uninspiring and exactly what Kerry would want to avoid in a running mate -- namely, someone who would look a lot like the image Kerry is running away from: "a tax-and-spend Massachusetts liberal." Hogberg says Kerry "won't need a tax-and-spend Midwestern liberal as his running mate."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:34 PM |

South Carolina Senate 2004

The US Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Rep. Jim DeMint (R) in the GOP Senate primary. DeMint is among five Republicans seeking the GOP Senate nomination; the others include formrer Governor David Beasley, former Attorney General Charlie Condon, Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel and Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride. On the Democratic side, state Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum is expectd to beat political neophyte Marcus Belk for that party's nod. The Senate primaries are held June 9. Senator Ernest Hollings (D) announced last year that he would not seek re-election.
On Monday, Beasley formally launched his Senate campaign highlighting what The (Columbia) State calls "a reliably conservative platform." Beasley pledged to protect the Pledge of Allegiance and the traditional definition of marriage as between one man and one woman, he vowed to fight for the confirmation of President Bush's judicial appointees ("We need judges who will stand up for South Carolina values, not Hollywood values") and he criticized the profligate spending of the Republican Congress.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:18 PM |

Sunday, February 08, 2004

Maine Democratic caucus

Senator John Kerry seems to have won yet another caucus, this one in Maine. Kerry has 46% support follwed by Howard Dean (26%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (13%), Senator John Edwards (9%), Wesley Clark (4%), uncommitted (1%) and Al Sharpton, whose support doesn't even warrant a round-up to 1%. These results are with 40% of the caucus precincts counted. While the total numbers are small -- Kerry has 3,373 and Dean 1,882 -- and the percentages could change significantly, if they hold Kucinich will have finished third in two of the last three states (the other being Washington). Perhaps there is momentum there? Or perhaps it is a sign of progressives jumping from the good ship Dean and making a purely symbolic vote. Anyway, it doesn't look good for Edwards and Clark.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:20 PM |

Tennessee Democratic primary

A SurveyUSA poll conducted before the February 2 primaries and caucuses found that Senator John Kerry was the favourite among Democrats in Tennessee. The WBIR-TV Knoxville/WXIA-TV Atlanta-sponsored poll of 656 certain Tennessee primary voters found Kerry the favourite of 31% of respondents followed by Wesley Clark (26%), Senator John Edwards (20%), Howard Dean (15%), others 6% combined and just 3% undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:09 PM |

Edwards tries to affect the expectation game

Senator John Edwards has said that not winning the two southern primaries on February 10 (Virginia and Tennessee) will not mean the end of this campaign. He said "This is very much for me a long-term process. It's a war of attrition ... I'm in it until I'm the nominee."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:09 PM |

Endorsement watch

Viriginia Governor Mark Warner (D) has endorsed Senator John Kerry, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. With the primary in being held on Tuesday, Mark Rozell, a professor of politics at Catholic University in Washington, told the Washington Post that it will not likely move a lot of people in Kerry's direction. But he did say it gave Kerry, a New Englander, credibility in the South where he has lost his only two primaries (South Carolina and Oklahoma). Also on Tuesday, Tennessee holds its Democratic primary.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:06 PM |

Kerry's Saturday

Senator John Kerry wins in Michigan and Washington state, making it 9 victories in the first 11 primaries and caucuses. In Washington (with 97% of precincts reporting), Kerry had 49% followed by Howard Dean 30%, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (8%), Senator John Edwards (7%) and retired General Wesley Clark (3%). There is very little commentary about the significance of an unserious candidates -- Kucinich -- finishing ahead of Edwards but clearly is signals problems with Edwards's national appeal among Democrats. In Michigan, Kerry finished with 52% followed by Dean (17%), Edwards (14%), Al Sharpton and Clark tied at 7%, and Kucinich (3%). Sharpton finished "a close second to Kerry" in Detroit and qualified for at least seven convention delegates.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:00 PM |

Friday, February 06, 2004

Dean out if he doesn't win Wisconsin

In a startling departure from his recent comments, Howard Dean sent an email to supporters saying that if he did not win the February 17 Wisconsin primary, he would drop out of the race. "The entire race has come down to this: we must win Wisconsin," wrote Dean in an email which pleaded for donatoins. He asked supporters for $50 each to help pay for a TV ad blitz in the state; he needs $700,000. The message warned "Anything less will put us out of this race." Earlier this week he indicated that he was in it for the long haul -- or at least the March 9 Florida primary. "I don't plan to disenfranchise Florida a second time," he joked on CNN. Dean is predicting a good showing but has moved away from predicting all-out victory in upcoming primaries and caucuses in Michigan, Maine and Washington.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:42 AM |

Thursday, February 05, 2004

Endorsement watch II

The Detroit-based bilingual newpaper Arab American News has endorsed retired General Wesley Clark. He is the best to challenge to the worldview of "a small cabal of extremist neoconservatives" who threaten Arab civil liberties at home and lives abroad. At stake in the 2004 election is perhaps nothing less "the continued existence of America" itself. They support Senator John Kerry's position on the Patriot Act and his criticism of Attorney General John Ashcroft but has supported policies harmful to the Arab community that cannot be endorsed. Howard Dean's positions are fine, but he lost their support with his Iowa caucus-night rant. They generally support Rep. Dennis Kucinich (who was endorsed by the Arab American Political Action Committee earlier this week) but his unelectability is the decisive factor -- it is a wasted endorsement, so to speak. By a process of elimination -- hardly the solid endorsement most candidates would want -- the Arab American News backs Clark. The paper supports his position on taxes, the environment, affirmative action and the war in Iraq but admits that ultimately the task is to defeat President George W. Bush, which the Arab American News believes can be done by Clark.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:23 PM |

State-by-state totals

USA Today has a section with vote and delegate totals and links to more specific county by county information on each candidate so you can see not only how well Senator John Kerry and Rep. Dennis Kucinich did but former Senator Carol Moseley Braun and Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr., too.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:50 PM |

Colorado Senate 2004

Former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb has said he will not seek the Democratic Senate nomination in Colorado, depriving the Democrats of their third choice to challenge Senator Ben Nighthorse Campabell, a Democrat-turned-Republican (in 1995) thought to be vulnerable in 2004. Last week, former Senator Gary Hart (1972-1986) bowed out of the race and last Fall, Rep. Mark Udall announced he would seek re-election rather than challenge Campbell. Democratic officials hope that either state Senator Dan Grossman or University of Colorado Regent Jim Martin will join a threesome of minor candidates for the Democratic primary.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:41 PM |

Kucinich is out of it

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D, OH) is not just out of the race -- he was out of that before the campaign began -- but he is now out of touch with reality. The Associated Press reports "Democrat Dennis Kucinich has only two delegates and low single-digit showings after nine nominating contests, yet he said Wednesday he's staying in the presidential race. 'The race for the nomination will go all the way to the convention,' Kucinich said in a statement. 'It is at the convention where I will win the nomination, based on the emergence of Iraq as the defining issue'." Despite the fact that Kucinich has filed to run for re-election in his Cleveland district, the Ohio Congressman plans to campaign through to the Democratic National Convention in July, including stops in New York and California before the March 2 primaries there. He said he continues to run because he is the only candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination with a plan to get the U.S. out of Iraq.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:34 PM |

Endorsement watch

The Associated Press has just reported that Rep. Dick Gephardt will endorse Democratic frontrunner, Senator John Kerry in Michigan tomorrow. Gephardt dropped out of the race last month after a disappointing fourth-place finish in Iowa. Before exiting the race, Gephardt was endorsed by some 20 unions but that labour support failed to materialize in votes. The AP reports that the union-created Alliance for Economic Justice will back Kerry and that a number of unions are expected to follow its lead in the upcoming weeks.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:12 PM |

Tennessee Democratic primary

A Nashville Tennessean-sponsored Mason-Dixon poll conducted last week (before the February 3 primaries and caucuses) had Senator John Kerry leading retired General Wesley Clark and Senator John Edwards 31%-22%-13%. Another Tennessean story reports that Clark has called the state a "must-win." At least political analyst says that Kerry winning this Southern state will cinch his nomination, a distinct possibility with Kerry leading in the polls.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:55 AM |

Virginia Democratic primary

The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that retired General Wesley Clark has pulled a TV ad in the state, but the Clark campaign vehemently denies they are scaling back efforts there. The ads were pulled from the northern Virginia market which requires advertising on more expensive Washington DC-based television stations. The Clark campaign still advertises elsewhere in the state, operates five offices and is planning a two-day bus trip this week. Clark hopes to best Edwards in Virginia and become the sole Southern candidate. Clark told reporters "I intend to win Virginia." Virginia and Tennessee hold primaries on February 10. Meanwhile, the paper reports, Clark's "staff in Little Rock, Ark., the campaign headquarters, is forgoing a paycheck to pay for TV ads in Tennessee."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:53 AM |

Michigan Democratic caucus II

The Detroit Free Press reports that Howard Dean's campaign manager still says the candidate's goal is to win the most delegates in Michigan's caucus this weekend. Earlier this week, Dean seemed to downplay Michigan but campaign chief Roy Neel Dean will campaign hard in the state: "He certainly didn't mean to say that he wasn't fighting to win Michigan." But Neel downplayed the likely loss in Michigan by adding, If we don't win, we'll go on. But we plan to win a lot of delegates there." A recent Detroit News poll has Senator John Kerry well ahed of Dean, 56%-12%. An EPIC/MRA of Lansing poll reported in the Detroit Free Press shows a similar polling advantage for Kerry: Kerry (58%), Dean (13%), Senator John Edwards (12%), retired general Wesley Clark (7%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton each had less than 1%.
Meanwhile, Edwards will not campaign or run TV ads in Michigan, focusing instead on states in which his spokesman describes as "competitive." Those states include Virginia, Tennessee and Wisconsin. Earlier this week, Edwards told the Free Press that he would stop in Michigan.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:42 AM |

Wednesday, February 04, 2004

Michigan Democratic caucus

The Detroit News reports that Senator John Kerry holds what seems like an unsurrmountable lead over Howard Dean in Michigan. A Detroit News/Mitchell tracking poll has Kerry at 56% compared to Dean's 12% among the 450 likely Michigan caucus voters surveyed. Nearly one in five respondents were undecided. According to the Associated Press, neither Senator John Edwards or retired General Wesley Clark are seriously contesting Michigan.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:22 AM |

Al Sharpton irrelevancy watch

The New York Times reports that preacher and civil rights agitator Al Sharpton failed to achieve either of his two goals in South Carolina, the first primary state in which black voters were to play a large role. Sharpton finished third with 10% of the vote (compared to 46% for Senator John Edwards and around 30% for Senator John Kerry). But he failed to win the black vote or a single delegate. According to exit polls, Sharpton garnered less than one-fifth of the black vote compared to 36% for Edwards and 32% for Kerry. If Sharpton received at least 15% of the vote in the state or in a Congressional District, he would have picked up delegates. He focused on the Sixth Congressional District, the CD with the largest portion of black voters in the state. The Times reports that "With nearly 70 percent of the precincts counted in that district, Mr. Sharpton had just 12.5 percent of the vote." In his speech last night, Sharpton declared victory, noting that he finished ahead of the 2000 Democratic vice presidential candidate, a popular retired general and a US Congressman.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:10 AM |

Wesley Clark drop out watch

The New York Post reports that Wesley Clark supporter New York state Senate Minority Leader David Paterson (D), said of his candidate "I think the general is about to meet Sitting Bull," alluding to General George Custer's defeat at the Little Bighorn. While saying that he will continue to support Clark as long as he remains a candidate, Paterson told an Albany radio station that "John Kerry, as I see it, is the clear candidate." The comments were made before polls closed in seven states in Tuesday's primaries and caucuses.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:04 AM |

Tuesday, February 03, 2004

Results

Most media is declaring Senator John Kerry the victor (Reuters, Washington Post are two such examples). Paulitics takes a slightly different analysis declaring four victors.
So far Senator John Edwards has won South Carolina and only he and Kerry took delegates there. Senator John Kerry won Delaware with more than 50% and although no other candidate got 15% of the vote, CNN is projecting Al Sharpton to win one delegate (which means he must have garnered 15% in a Congressional District). Senator John Kerry won the lion's share in both Arizona, North Dakota and Missouri. Wesley Clark looks like he will get more votes than Edwards in Oklahoma with Kerry just behind but Clark and Edwards will be tied at 30% and practically tied in delegates. New Mexico shows Kerry winning and pulling ahead of Howard Dean and Clark. If Dean finishes second with about a quarter of the vote, he can claim some sort of victory.
So the winners:
Kerry: Five of seven states. 'Nuf said.
Edwards: He wins South Carolina impressively and can claim co-winner status (and ahead of expectations and Kerry) in Oklahoma.
Dean: He picks up delegates in two states and does much better than expected in New Mexico. He can justify continuing his campaign.
President George W. Bush: With a much stronger Edwards, Dean continuing his campaign and Clark probably sticking it out, the Democratic primaries continue until at least March 2 (New York, California etc). That's money Democrats are spending on the internicene fight rather than on the presidential campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:03 PM |

Endorsement watch

New York's crusading Attorney General Eliot Spitzer endorsed Senator John Kerry. Spitzer said "With his long record of standing up for all Americans against special interests, John Kerry is the best candidate for president." On the weekend, the Washington Post reported that Kerry is the king of special interest money in the Senate.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:50 PM |

Lieberman out

The Associated Press reports that Senator Joseph Lieberman will announce he is dropping out of the race to become the Democratic presidential nominee. This on a night in which he finished in the bottom place or two in every state but Delaware (second place but with just 11%, thus far).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:11 PM |

Monday, February 02, 2004

Tuesday Democratic primaries

Latest polls show that Senator John Kerry is ahead in five of the states holding primaries or caucuses (Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico and North Dakota) today and some polls show him seriously contesting the other two (Oklahoma, South Carolina). The Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking polls show that Kerry is leading in Missouri with 50% followed by Senator John Edwards (15%) and Howard Dean (9%). In Arizona, Kerry leads (40%) followed by Wesley Clark (27%) and Howard Dean (13%). In Oklahoma, Clark has lost his solid lead and now is ahead of Kerry 28%-27% followed by Edwards (19%). In South Carolina, Edwards leads Kerry 30%-25% followed by Clark and Dean (10% each).
The SurveyUSA poll shows Oklahoma a three-way race, with Kerry in third: Clark (29%), Edwards (27%), Kerry (26%). Edwards's lead in South Carolina is larger than the Zogby poll: Edwards (34%), Kerry (17%), Clark (16%) and Al Sharpton (12%). If this the SurveyUSA polls are correct and Kerry drops to third in two states, this race could become much more interesting. The SurveyUSA poll also shows Missouri closer than the Zogby polls: Kerry (44%), Edwards (20%), Dean (15%).
Kerry has led in recent polls in New Mexico, Delaware and North Dakota. Last Friday, the Albuquerque Journal reported that Kerry led Dean 31%-15%. A recent SurveyUSA poll shows that Kerry leads Dean 42%-12% followed by Edwards (11%) and Lieberman (10%). Lieberman once led in the state. In North Dakota, a recent Minnesota State University Moorehead Public Affairs Institute poll had Kerry leading Clark 31%-15%, but it also showed that 40% are still undecided.
There are 279 delegates up for grabs: Missouri (74), Arizona (55), South Carolina (45), Oklahoma (45), New Mexico (26), Delaware (15) and North Dakota (14).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:50 PM |

Nevada Senate 2004

Senator Harry Reid (D, NV) has amassed a $6.2 million war chest in his re-election bid. Reid has set a goal of raising $10 million and he appears well on his way; he has already raised $1 million more than he raised for his 1998 re-election bid.
With Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) announcing last year that he would not challenge Reid, the GOP's best hope is state Treasurer Brian Krolicki, who recently returned from a trip to Washington to seek support for a possible run. Also considering entering the fray are Republicans Secretary of State Dean Heller and state Controller Kathy Augustine. There are two declared GOP candidates, conservative activist Richard Ziser (who has $121,000 cash on hand) and disabled Gulf War veteran Ken Wegner.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:50 PM |

Sunday, February 01, 2004

Pennsylvania Senate 2004

The battle for the GOP Senate nomination between Rep. Pat Toomey and incumbent Senator Arlen Specter is attracting a fair number of donations. Specter raised $1.5 million in the final quarter of 2003 compared to Toomey's $641,000. And while Specter spent $1.6 million in the final quarter of 2003, he still has $9.2 million on hand compared to Toomey's $2.1 million. The Republican Senate primary is April 27.
The Democratic challenger will be Rep. Joe Hoeffel who raised $383,000 last quarter has almost $800,000 on hand.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:19 AM |