Paulitics

Notice

Paulitics will be on hiatus until late March.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:28 PM | Permalink

Republican presidential nomination 2008

Robert Novak reports that Colorado Governor Bill Owens probably turned down the opportunity to run for now open Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Novak writes in the Chicago Sun-Times, "Owens, who has his eye on the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, may have noted the poor track record for Republican senators going directly into the White House. The last to make it was Sen. Warren Harding of Ohio in 1920."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:56 PM | Permalink

Kerry has Democratic race wrapped up

It was only a formality but the Associated Press reports that the combination of picking up the commitment of 162 superdelegates and winning 72% of the Kansas caucus today has clinched the Democratic presidential nomination for Senator John Kerry. Kerry has 2,194 of 4,322 delegates; 2,162 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:43 PM | Permalink

Colorado Senate 2004

The Washington Times reports that Colorado state Attorney General Ken Salazar's announcement that he would seek the Democratic Senate nomination has led the two leading contenders for the nomination to drop out of the race -- one of them for the second time. Rep. Mark Udall announced he would seek the nomination earlier this week after announcing he would not seek the nomination last Fall, before Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) announced his retirement. Now, however, Udall has dropped out again. Also, businessman Rutt Bridges, who was self-financing his candidacy, dropped out of the race and endorsed Salazar.
Pollster Floyd Ciruli said that with the two-term attorney general in the race, the seat goes from safely Republican to too close to call and perhaps leaning Democrat: "With Salazar and with no Owens, this becomes a winnable race for state Democrats ... Salazar is the Owens of the Democratic Party, and there's no one else as big as Owens on the Republican side." Popular Republican Governor Bill Owens announced earlier this week that he would not seek the GOP nomination leaving a number of US House Reps and a former House Rep considering seeking the party's Senate nod.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:57 PM | Permalink

Who cares Tuesday

As expected, Senator John Kerry swept the four southern state primaries yesterday. He won Florida and Mississippi with about 75%, and more than 60% in Louisiana and Texas. Senator John Edwards, who left the race last week, was second in Florida with 10%. In Mississippi, Edwards came in second with 7%. In Texas, he finished second with 15%. (In Texas, Sharpton finished fourth, behind Howard Dean.) And in Louisiana, Edwards placed second with 16%. So no other candidate that is still in the race picked up delegates.
In important Congessional primary news, two incumbent Texas Democrats were trailing in early returns: Chris Bell (in Houston) and Ciro D. Rodriguez (in San Antonio). Even if they win, redistricting will likely mean their political demise in November.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:32 AM | Permalink

Colorado Senate 2004

It seems very likely that Republicans will lose the seat of retiring Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Governor Bill Owens shocked GOP supporters when he announced yesterday that he would not seek the Republican senate nomination. He said that he did not want to put his family through such a campaign and noted that he still had unfinished business in Colorado and three years left in his second term. He indicated support for Rep. Bob Beauprez who has yet to announce his intentions. Rep. Tom Tancredo is likely to seek the nomination as is former Rep. Bob Schaffer. Also considering jumping into the fray is Reps Scott McInnis who has already announced he won't seek re-election. That could leave the GOP defending three House seats.
Despite announcing last Fall that he would not run for the nomination, Rep. Mark Udall (D) said he will seek his party's Senate nomination, joining several already-announced no-name candidates. Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) is also considering a run.
Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli said that with recent developments, "This is now a completely open seat."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:21 AM | Permalink

Tuesday primaries

Not that anyone is paying attention but the Democratic primaries continue along. Tomorrow Florida, Lousiana, Mississippi and Texas hold them. Yesterday, Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, campaigned in Mississippi which has 33 delegates up for grabs.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:41 PM | Permalink

Veep endorsement watch

Jesse Jackson said Senator John Edwards (NC) would make a good running mate for Senator John Kerry. "John Edwards has a freshness," Jackson said. "He represents the South in so many ways ... I'm impressed by the race he ran and I'm very impressed by the response of the people to John Edwards."
Meanwhile, Governor Bill Richardson (NM) and Senator Bob Graham (FL), two people often mentioned as possible vice presidential nominees for the Democrats, deflected questions about their interest in the position today on NBC's Meet the Press.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:05 PM | Permalink

Party switchers watch update

The Washington Times reports that Rep. Rodney Alexander (D, LA) will not become a Republican despite viewing Senator John Kerry, the Democratic standard-bearer in the 2004 presidential election, as too liberal.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:56 AM | Permalink

Veep watch

The Des Moines Register reports that Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack said a vice presidential candidate from the Southwest or Midwest might be the best strategy for Democrats hoping to win in November. Vilsack, the paper helpfully reports "is among the names being mentioned as a running mate" and has vowed not to run for a third term as governor in 2006. Vilsack said "If the Kerry folks think that a Southern campaign is still necessary, then clearly a Southern candidate becomes very viable or important ... If they want to replicate the Gore map, then someone from the Midwest or someone from the Southwest would make sense." Most analysis of the 2004 race points to political battles in the Midwest (Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, perhaps Michigan) and Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada). Vilsack might be able to deliver Iowa which has 7 electoral votes but he has little name recognition outside the state. Senator Charles Grassley (R, IA) of Iowa indicated that the best running mate for Kerry would be Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) who would help in highly unionized states (Michigan), jobs with high unemployment (Ohio) and his home state (Missouri). Bush won Ohio and Missouri in 2000.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:48 AM | Permalink

Party switcher watch

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Democratic Rep. Rodney Alexander is "seriously considering" becoming a Republican. The first-term Congressman had already announced that he is supporting President George W. Bush's re-election bid but said this week that Senator John Kerry is too liberal for both himself and his constituents. Alexander has talked to the Republican Congressional leadership about the possible move. He says that the only thing that has prevented a switch so far is the loyalty he feels to Louisiana Democrats such as Senator John Breaux who helped him get elected in the first place. Members of the conservative Democratic group Blue Dog Committee have contacted Alexander to urge him not to join the GOP. In 2000, Bush beat Al Gore in Alexander's 4th Congressional District 57%-40%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:40 AM | Permalink

Colorado Senate 2004

Popular Colorado Governor Bill Owens is seriously considering entering the Senate race following the announcement Wednesday that Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) is not seeking re-election. Owens said he has received pressure from the White House to enter the race but that he won't decide for 7-10 days. According to the Rocky Mountain News, what Owens decides could have far-reaching ripples with more than a half dozen other elected officials, including several Congressman, considering a run for the Senate.
Owens is the odds on favourite if he does decide to run. Pollster Floyd Ciruli said "He's the perfect replacement for Campbell from (the national GOP's) point of view. As a candidate, he's got to be the strongest of those out there." If Owens doesn't run, Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) will probably jump in. If Tancredo runs for the Senate, state Treasurer Mike Coffman (R) will likely run for Tancredo's 6th Congressional District seat. If Tancredo stays put, Coffman is considering running for the Senate. Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) is also waiting to see what Owens decides. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) has said the possibility of running for the Senate has some appeal and retiring Rep. Scott McInnis (R) said he might be interested in running for the GOP Senate nomination. At this point, if Owens does not run, Tancredo would be considered the front-runner and probably scare off the other sitting Republican U.S. Representatives.
Previously, the Democrats have not had luck finding a star-name candidate to challenge Campbell (including Rep. Mark Udall and former Senator Gary Hart) and has attracted only several unknown lawyers, a businessman and an assistant high school principal. However, state Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) said through a spokesman that he is not making his intentions public at this time and Rep. Diana DeGette (D) said that EMILY'S List, a fundraising PAC for pro-abortion, female political candidates, contacted her shortly after Campbell's announcement to encourage her to run for the Senate seat. DeGette said "I have to look at the fact that open seats don't come open often." It is unlikely Salazar or DeGette would run for the Democratic Senate nomination if Owens does indeed make take the plunge into federal politics. Owens is a second-term governor, re-elected in 2002, whom National Review called the best governor in the union.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:21 PM | Permalink

Eight months before election polls

An Associated Press-sponsored Ipsos-Public Affairs poll finds President George W. Bush leading Senator John Kerry 46%-45% with independent Ralph Nader playing "spoiler" at 6%. 771 Americans were polled March 1-3.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:01 PM | Permalink

Veep selection

Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, picked Jim Johnson, Walter Mondale's 1984 campaign manager, in charge of his vice presidential selection committee.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:56 PM | Permalink

Veep watch

New York Times mentions that former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn is beginning to come up in discussions about the Democratic vice presidential nominee.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:08 AM | Permalink

Colorado Senate 2004

Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R, CO) has announced he will not seek re-election pointing to health concerns. The 70-year-old native Americans -- the only in the Senate -- underwent treatment for prostate cancer last year. A member of his office staff have also been embroiled in a minor scandal. Initial speculation has popular Governor Bill Owens as the front-runner for the GOP nomination. He his is the party's candidate, the Republicans will certainly hold onto the seat; if not, it will be a toss-up.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 6:10 PM | Permalink

John Who?

That's what people will be asking when (not really if) Senator (then former Senator) John Edwards runs to the presidency in 2008. Writing for National Review Online Michael Graham wonders "without an ideology, or a base of political successes, or a group of dedicated followers, how does Edwards stay in the game the next four years?" There is no core of support, just Democratic voters who liked Edwards this time around. That doesn't bode well for the North Carolina senator when there is a new cast of characters, including Senator Hillary Clinton.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:58 PM | Permalink

Primary results

California: Senator John Kerry leads Senator John Edwards with 66%-19% with Howard Dean in third with 5%. (30% counted)

Connecticut: Kerry leading Edwards 58%-24% followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman at 5%. (99% counted)

Georgia: Kerry beat Edwards 47%-42% followed by Al Sharpton at 6%.

Ohio: Kerry beat Edwards 52%-34%, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich in third with 9%.

Massachusetts: Kerry leads Edwards 72%-18% with Kucinich trailing at 4%. (97% of the votes counted)

Minnesota: With 76% of the caucus vote tallied, Kerry leads Edwards 50%-27% followed by Kucinich at 17%.

New York: Kerry leads Edwards 60%-20% followed by Sharpton at 8%. (99% of the vote counted)

Rhode Island: Kerry lead Edwards 71%-19% followed by Dean at 4%. (99% of the vote counted)

Vermont: Dean leads Edwards 58%-34% followed by Kucinich at 4%. (95% of the vote counted)

All links have the number of delegates up for grabs and vote counts will be updated as counting continues.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:22 AM | Permalink

No sweep for Kerry

On their website, CNN reports that with 15% of the vote counted in Vermont, Howard Dean is leading Senator John Kerry 56%-37%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:14 PM | Permalink

Edwards out

Senator John Edwards is on CNN speaking with the caption underneath that he is quitting the race. That leaves Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton as Senator John Kerry's only challengers for the Democratic presidential nomination. You can stop laughing now. Ok, you can stop now. All right, come back to Paulitics when you stop laughing.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:13 PM | Permalink

Not so super Tuesday for Edwards -- 3 predictions

Paulitics is predicting a clean sweep for Senator John Kerry: 10 for 10. Polls in every state except Minnesota, for which I haven't seen any, show Kerry with double digit leads including those states (Georgia, Maryland, Ohio) in which Senator John Edwards supposedly has a chance at winning. As the North Carolina senator said himself yesterday, "At some point, I've got to start getting more delegates or I'm not going to be the nominee." Prediction #2: Edwards drops out tonight or tomorrow even though the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that he is scheduled to make a three-day campaign swing through the March 9 states of Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. Prediction #3: While the media will incessantly talk about Senator Kerry-Edwards ticket, it isn't going to happen.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:18 AM | Permalink

Colorado Senate 2004

The Washington Times reports that Colorado businessman Rutt Bridges will become a candidate for the Democratic Senate nomination in order to challenge Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R). Bridges, founder of the centre-left Bighorn Center for Public Policy, is expected to fund most of his own campaign. He is probably the biggest name in a race that already includes school administrator Mike Miles, lawyers Brad Freedberg (of Denver) and Larry Johnson (of Boulder).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:07 AM | Permalink